Disney Lorcana / Booster Display
Wilds Unknown 24-Pack Booster Display EV Calculator
Estimate this physical product's no-chase expected value with a product-, region-, language-, and printing-specific model, then compare the modeled range with your entered cost. Estimated ROI is a planning metric, not a guaranteed return.
Model assumptions & evidence
Simulation order: complete product contents are drawn first. Included-pool controls and optional Sift are applied only after the draw, and filtered outcomes are never replaced or backfilled.
Reviewed conditional scope: Ariel — Curious Traveler (#18) is an ordinary Rare, not a Curio chase treatment; both ordinary finishes are included. This model retains the original foil estimate conditioned on measured Rare, Super Rare, and Legendary foils. Common/Uncommon foils were not counted in the opening sample and remain outside this scoped model. Uniform weights within each rarity and finish are assumptions, not factory guarantees.
Reviewed conditional scope: Ariel — Curious Traveler (#18) is an ordinary Rare, not a Curio chase treatment; both ordinary finishes are included.
- Release
- May 8, 2026
- Market scope
- English / North America / Standard retail English sampled in Halifax, Nova Scotia; manufacturer printing wave undisclosed
- Default singles price
- TCGplayer Low
- Model basis
- Publisher + empirical collation
Included poolsChoose which already-drawn pools count toward EV.
Sealed Price / EV
Marketplace rows retain marketplace-only labels and use each marketplace's low sealed-product price.
| Marketplace | Product price | Break-even price | P/E | Basis |
|---|
Simulation Results
Low, Mid, and High are all derived from this same recalculated result set.
Confidence band: --
Modeled contribution mix
Card Value Breakdown
See which rarities and treatments are carrying the current gross EV.
Waiting for modeled rows
Model & EvidenceHow this calculation is supportedReview the product evidence, price coverage, and chase policy. EvidencePublisher + empirical collationReviewed July 23, 2026 Historical price review (280 rows)100.0% modeled massAugust 28, 2026 original scope Chase policyNo-chase baseline3 chase families excluded
Generated model: /data-static/lorcana/wilds-unknown/models/booster-display-no-chase.json
Publisher + empirical collation
Evidence
This calculator is based on Publisher + empirical collation reviewed July 23, 2026.
Empirical sample
- Sample unit
- Pack
- Sample size
- 1056
- Independent cases
- 11
- Observation window
- Not reported by the source
- Region
- Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada (English-language retail product)
- Case correlations
- Not preserved
- Method
- Empirical collation from The Deck Box Halifax: 44 booster boxes / 1056 packs were opened for singles and card-level counts were published. The model preserves the observed Normal and foil R/SR/L rarity proportions, normalizes them to complete ordinary slot counts after the documented exclusions, and does not infer uncounted Common/Uncommon foil rates. Manufacturer printing wave and actual opening interval were not disclosed.
Sources
- Disney Lorcana — Wilds Unknown - Disney Lorcana / Ravensburger (accessed 2026-07-20)
- Wilds Unknown booster display - Ravensburger (accessed 2026-07-20)
- Disney Lorcana Booster Packs and Boxes - Ravensburger (accessed 2026-07-20)
- The Deck Box Lorcana opening workbook — Wilds Unknown tab - The Deck Box Halifax (accessed 2026-07-20)
- Wilds Unknown opening sample disclosure - The Deck Box Halifax (accessed 2026-07-20)
- TCGCSV category 71 groups - TCGCSV (accessed 2026-07-20) — identity and pricing were imported into local generated artifacts; the calculator does not call the raw endpoint.
- TCGCSV Wilds Unknown products - TCGCSV (accessed 2026-07-20) — identity and pricing were imported into local generated artifacts; the calculator does not call the raw endpoint.
- Owner-directed ordinary-pool no-chase redraw classification - The Expected Value (accessed 2026-07-23)
Limitations
- Empirical collation: 1,056 packs (44 displays) from one Halifax store. The first-hand opening post and card-count workbook are linked below. Manufacturer printing wave and the actual observation interval remain undisclosed.
- Empirical observation start (observedFrom): undisclosed by the source.
- Empirical observation end (observedThrough): undisclosed by the source.
- Empirical sample printing wave (wave): not reported by the source.
- Empirical sample printing detail (printingDetail): not reported by the source.
- The source counted 2,108 Normal R/SR/L cards and 214 Cold Foil R/SR/L cards. Common, Uncommon, and Common/Uncommon foil observations were intentionally not counted; publisher-fixed nonfoil Common/Uncommon slots remain, while unmeasured low-rarity foils are absent rather than zero-valued outcomes.
- After removing premium rarities, the ordinary R/SR/L total is 2,108 versus 2,112 publisher slots (-4, -0.19%); raw counts are preserved.
- Expected display counts use the observed rarity proportions normalized to the fixed ordinary slots in 24 packs. The measured Rare, Super Rare, and Legendary foil pool fills all 24 modeled foil positions under the documented conditional scenario. These are normalized model rates, not the raw foil counts from the opening sample. The sample does not establish within-display or case correlations, hit-count variance, or guarantees.
- Modeling policy approved 2026-07-23: every supported ordinary card in the same slot, rarity, treatment, and finish pool receives one equal positive selection weight. This is a transparent modeling assumption where the publisher or empirical sample gives pool odds but not card-level sheet weights.
- No-chase redraw policy approved 2026-07-23: Curio, Enchanted, alternate-art, parallel, showcase, serialized, signature, premium-rarity, promotional, and any other card or treatment without a supported pull rate are excluded. A chase hit is redrawn from the applicable supported ordinary pool, so excluded cards occupy no modeled outcome.
- Simulation ordering is draw the complete disclosed no-chase product first, record that draw, and only then apply Sift or another user filter. Sift never changes or backfills the completed modeled draw.
Local price snapshots
Pricing
Historical figures below describe the original 280-row model reviewed on August 28, 2026. They are not current price coverage for the corrected 282-row model; current availability is reported separately.
TCGplayer Low is the default singles price for the first calculation and remains selected until changed. Resetting the price source returns to TCGplayer Low.
- Row coverage (reviewed)
- 100.0%
- Modeled mass coverage (reviewed)
- 100.0%
- Coverage observed
- August 28, 2026
- Low-price source
- Available Via Tcgcsv
No catalog-level price fallbacks are recorded. Runtime gaps are disclosed below when data loads.
TCGplayer Low coverage will be checked against the loaded local price snapshot.
Generated model and price snapshot dates load with this calculator.
No-chase model
Chase Exclusions
Excluded chase families are removed from the model entirely. They are never retained as zero-EV occupied outcomes. Each affected physical position is instead filled from its disclosed supported ordinary pool before the product draw is completed.
- Curio, Enchanted, Epic, and Iconic chase cards
- Unpriced or incomplete-metadata special cards
- Unsupported premium or foil treatments
Product snapshot
Modeled Product Structure
- Cards per pack
- 12
- Packs per booster display
- 24
- Draw order
- Complete draw, then filters
All modeled slots are resolved before pool toggles or Sift score the opened product. This ordering prevents replacement draws from inflating EV.
Pack & Booster Display EV
| Metric | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pack EV (gross) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Booster Display EV × 24 packs (gross) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Seller fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after purchase | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Break-even price (Mid) | $0.00 | ||
Purchase EV & Estimated ROI
| Metric | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross EV | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Total fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after expenses | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Modeled ROI vs entered cost | -- | -- | -- |
booster displays: 0 · Price/booster display: $0.00 · Total cost: $0.00
How is estimated ROI calculated? It equals modeled profit divided by the entered product cost. Modeled profit subtracts that product cost, selected seller fees, and any entered order or shipping costs from the modeled resale value. It is not a guaranteed return; pull variance, market price changes, taxes, and other unmodeled selling costs can change actual resale results.
Expected contribution
Card Value Breakdown
| Name | Set | Card # | Rarity | Treatment | Value | Seller fees | Products / copy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expected cards/booster display after toggles and Sift | 0.00 | ||||||
| All modeled game-card rows | 0.00 | ||||||
| Gap to modeled card total | 0.00 | ||||||
The simulator draws the full physical product first, then applies disabled pools and optional Sift. Filtered outcomes occupy their actual slots and are never backfilled.