Disney Lorcana / Booster Display
The First Chapter 24-Pack Booster Display EV Calculator
Estimate this physical product's no-chase expected value with a product-, region-, language-, and printing-specific model, then compare the modeled range with your entered cost. Estimated ROI is a planning metric, not a guaranteed return.
- Release
- August 18, 2023
- Market scope
- English / North America / Standard retail English; manufacturer printing wave unspecified
- Default singles price
- TCGplayer Low
- Model basis
- Best Evidence — English opening marginal estimate
Sealed Price / EV
Marketplace rows retain marketplace-only labels and use each marketplace's low sealed-product price.
| Marketplace | Product price | Break-even price | P/E | Basis |
|---|
Simulation Results
Low, Mid, and High are all derived from this same recalculated result set.
Confidence band: --
Modeled contribution mix
Card Value Breakdown
See which rarities and treatments are carrying the current gross EV.
Waiting for modeled rows
Included poolsChoose which already-drawn pools count toward EV.
Model & EvidenceHow this calculation is supportedReview the product evidence, price coverage, and chase policy. EvidenceBest Evidence — English opening marginal estimateReviewed September 4, 2026 Price coverage (reviewed)100.0% modeled mass100.0% measured rows Chase policyNo-chase baseline3 chase families excluded
Generated model: /data-static/lorcana/the-first-chapter/models/booster-display-no-chase.json
Best Evidence — English opening marginal estimate
Evidence
This calculator is based on Best Evidence — English opening marginal estimate reviewed September 4, 2026.
Sources
- Disney Lorcana — The First Chapter - Disney Lorcana / Ravensburger (accessed 2026-07-20)
- The First Chapter booster display - Ravensburger (accessed 2026-07-20)
- Disney Lorcana Booster Packs and Boxes - Ravensburger (accessed 2026-07-20)
- TCGCSV category 71 groups - TCGCSV (accessed 2026-07-20) — identity and pricing were imported into local generated artifacts; the calculator does not call the raw endpoint.
- TCGCSV The First Chapter products - TCGCSV (accessed 2026-07-20) — identity and pricing were imported into local generated artifacts; the calculator does not call the raw endpoint.
- Best Evidence — English opening marginal estimate and exact ordinary-pool classification - The Expected Value (accessed 2026-09-04)
- English First Chapter pack recipe and gift-set contents - Ravensburger (accessed 2026-09-04)
- English First Chapter 204-card checklist; identities, not odds - Ravensburger (accessed 2026-09-04)
- First Chapter English GenCon opening: enumerated Box 2 only - Jason Grabher-Meyer / TCGplayer (accessed 2026-09-04)
- First-hand First Chapter 490-pack aggregate: foil Legendary and Enchanted only - lorealleystore (accessed 2026-09-04)
Limitations
- Best Evidence — English opening marginal estimate: the publisher establishes 6 Common, 3 Uncommon, two Rare/Super Rare/Legendary cards and one foil of any ordinary rarity per twelve-card English pack, with 24 packs per display. No exact publisher rarity odds or complete printing-wave ledger is established. No Japanese observations, Japanese prices or another set's pull counts are used.
- Jason Grabher-Meyer's August 4, 2023 TCGplayer GenCon opening has one internally reconciled enumerated Box 2: 30 Rare, 14 Super Rare and 4 Legendary nonfoils, plus 13 Common, 6 Uncommon, 3 Rare and 2 Super Rare foils. Its first box has a mismatched named Super Rare subtotal, so only Box 2 determines the 30:14:4 nonfoil and 13:6:3:2 non-Legendary foil marginals. These small-sample rates are not guaranteed box contents.
- A separate first-hand lorealleystore report dated May 21, 2024 records 490 First Chapter packs, 6 Enchanted and 18 foil Legendary cards from mixed cases, boxes and loose/sleeved packs. Assume Enchanted replaces the foil position; remove those six before drawing, giving retained foil Legendary probability 18/484. Allocate the remaining 466/484 among Common/Uncommon/Rare/Super Rare in the separate Box 2 ratio 13:6:3:2. This deliberately hybrid conditional estimate is not a pooled ledger or measured joint distribution; printing wave, region mix, sampling bias and pack/display/case correlations remain unresolved.
- All 204 ordinary identities require both exact English Normal and Cold Foil SKUs with positive TCGplayer Low: 72 Common, 54 Uncommon, 48 Rare, 18 Super Rare and 12 Legendary in each finish, totaling 408 priced pairs. Equal weights within each rarity/finish pool and exchangeability of the two nonfoil high-rarity positions are explicit assumptions, not checklist-derived odds or publisher sheet weights. Missing ordinary cards, metadata or prices fail closed; no finish fallback or invented price is allowed.
- The twelve Enchanted Holofoil SKUs are absent before drawing and the five ordinary foil outcomes sum to one. Oversized gift-set Hades 516775 and Mulan 516778 are not booster cards; their ordinary playable versions remain eligible in both finishes. Puzzle/QR advertising inserts are not a thirteenth playable card or priced bonus. This intentional no-chase baseline applies because there is no separate collector booster. Draw all 288 playable cards before Sift and user filters; filters never backfill. Only the display is public, with embedded pack EV equal to display EV divided by 24.
Local price snapshots
Pricing
TCGplayer Low is the default singles price for the first calculation and remains selected until changed. Resetting the price source returns to TCGplayer Low.
- Row coverage (reviewed)
- 100.0%
- Modeled mass coverage (reviewed)
- 100.0%
- Coverage observed
- September 4, 2026
- Low-price source
- Available Via Tcgcsv
No catalog-level price fallbacks are recorded. Runtime gaps are disclosed below when data loads.
TCGplayer Low coverage will be checked against the loaded local price snapshot.
Generated model and price snapshot dates load with this calculator.
No-chase model
Chase Exclusions
Excluded chase families are removed from the model entirely. They are never retained as zero-EV occupied outcomes. Each affected physical position is instead filled from its disclosed supported ordinary pool before the product draw is completed.
- Curio, Enchanted, Epic, and Iconic chase cards
- Oversized gift-set cards; not booster contents
- Unpriced or incomplete-metadata special cards
Model assumptions & evidence
Simulation order: complete product contents are drawn first. Included-pool controls and optional Sift are applied only after the draw, and filtered outcomes are never replaced or backfilled.
Product snapshot
Modeled Product Structure
- Cards per pack
- 12
- Packs per booster display
- 24
- Draw order
- Complete draw, then filters
All modeled slots are resolved before pool toggles or Sift score the opened product. This ordering prevents replacement draws from inflating EV.
Pack & Booster Display EV
| Metric | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pack EV (gross) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Booster Display EV × 24 packs (gross) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Seller fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after purchase | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Break-even price (Mid) | $0.00 | ||
Purchase EV & Estimated ROI
| Metric | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross EV | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Total fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Net after fees | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Profit after expenses | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Modeled ROI vs entered cost | -- | -- | -- |
booster displays: 0 · Price/booster display: $0.00 · Total cost: $0.00
How is estimated ROI calculated? It equals modeled profit divided by the entered product cost. Modeled profit subtracts that product cost, selected seller fees, and any entered order or shipping costs from the modeled resale value. It is not a guaranteed return; pull variance, market price changes, taxes, and other unmodeled selling costs can change actual resale results.
Expected contribution
Card Value Breakdown
| Name | Set | Card # | Rarity | Treatment | Value | Seller fees | Products / copy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expected cards/booster display after toggles and Sift | 0.00 | ||||||
| All modeled game-card rows | 0.00 | ||||||
| Gap to modeled card total | 0.00 | ||||||
The simulator draws the full physical product first, then applies disabled pools and optional Sift. Filtered outcomes occupy their actual slots and are never backfilled.