Newtype Rising Booster Display [GD01] EV Calculator

Best Evidence — Japanese collation proxy

Evidence

This calculator is based on Best Evidence — Japanese collation proxy reviewed September 3, 2026.

Sources

• Newtype Rising [GD01] official English-US product page - Bandai Co., Ltd. (accessed 2026-09-03)
• TCGCSV category 86 group 24221, sealed product 619072 - TCGCSV (accessed 2026-09-03) — identity and pricing were imported into local generated artifacts; the calculator does not call the raw endpoint.
• Japanese GD01 six-plus-one-card wrapper and base rarity roster - Bandai Co., Ltd. (accessed 2026-09-04)
• GD01 official English filtered card roster - Bandai Co., Ltd. (accessed 2026-09-04)
• GD01 Japanese product-specific box pattern, 2025-07-26 addendum; no sample ledger - TCG Unopened Pack Collector (Zonosite) (accessed 2026-09-04)
• GD01 photographed English 24-pack box opening, 2025-08-02; European distribution - Gundanium Gateway (Sergeant Shokugan) (accessed 2026-09-04)
• Best Evidence — Japanese collation proxy and ordinary-pool classification - The Expected Value (accessed 2026-09-03)

Limitations

• Bandai publishes 13 physical cards per English-US pack and 130+6 card types, but it does not publish the complete ordinary slot probabilities, replacement mapping, or per-card weights.
• TCGCSV category 86 group 24221 contained 192 card products, 192 with a non-null TCGplayer Low field, when reviewed. The 197 price rows split into 113 Normal and 84 Holofoil rows. This establishes current row availability only; without a reviewed model it does not establish expected-mass coverage.
• Normal and Holofoil are marketplace subtype labels, not automatically frame/style Treatments. Every duplicate-number and finish row must be mapped to an exact SKU before it can enter a model.
• The no-chase baseline has no separate English collector product to use instead. Before approval, every +, ++, SP, Link Rare, premium Resource, and other chase SKU and branch must be enumerated and omitted entirely.
• The English-US product page duplicates Common for its 36-card bucket. The Japanese publisher labels that bucket Uncommon; the exact English base roster independently reconciles 50 Common and 36 Uncommon. These are population counts, not pack probabilities.
• Modeling policy approved 2026-09-03: every supported ordinary card in the same slot, rarity, treatment, and finish pool receives one equal positive selection weight. This is a transparent modeling assumption where the publisher or empirical sample gives pool odds but not card-level sheet weights.
• Best Evidence — Japanese collation proxy: exact English wrapper and card-price identities are combined with an owner-approved Japanese-product collation proxy because a complete English rate ledger is not published. This is an estimate, not a factory guarantee.
• Only booster-pack slot counts and rarity probabilities are proxied. Card identities, treatments, TCGplayer Low prices, sealed-product identity, language, region, release date, and any explicitly modeled fixed bonus come from the exact English release.
• The proxy is first-order and product-family-specific. No display or case correlation is inherited, and no target is used as a donor for another target.
• Within each retained English rarity/treatment pool, exact positively priced card SKUs use equal positive weight where publisher sheet weights are unavailable.
• Per pack proxy: 6 Common, 4 Uncommon, two Rare-or-Legend-Rare draws weighted 19/23 Rare and 4/23 Legend Rare after chase removal, plus one Resource/EX Resource/EX Base/Unit Token. The 24-pack English display contains exactly 312 modeled physical cards; its expected ordinary Legend Rare count is 192/23 (about 8.35), not 16.
• Replace this proxy when a complete, attributable English collation ledger or publisher rate table becomes available for the exact release.
• The product-specific Japanese GD01 report describes 24 six-plus-one-card packs, four regular Legend Rares, one parallel game card and one parallel Resource. A photographed English 24-pack opening counts eight regular Legend Rares and two parallel game cards among its 48 Rare-or-better positions. Scaling the Japanese game-card wrapper is corroborative evidence, not a factory guarantee or a complete English-US case ledger.
• The retained high-rarity ratio is 38 ordinary Rare to 8 ordinary Legend Rare from that English box. Unsupported parallel outcomes are removed before drawing; normalizing 38:8 to 19/23:4/23 across both rare positions is an explicit conditional marginal assumption. It does not assert independently interchangeable physical slots, guaranteed box counts, no-duplicate rules, or seeded case patterns.
• The ordinary game-card pools contain exactly 50 Common, 36 Uncommon, 32 Rare and 12 Legend Rare English base printings. The English product page's second Common label is a typo corroborated by the Japanese publisher's Uncommon label and the exact English card roster; checklist population counts are not pull probabilities.
• The +1 support slot uses 21 exact Normal English SKUs: R-002 through R-009, T-001 through T-011, EXB-001 and EXR-001. The publisher's GD01 filter lists the eight illustrated Resources and Fatum-00; the photographed opening additionally shows reused basic EX cards and starter tokens. Including all ten basic token identities and allocating equal 1/21 weights is an explicit assumption because their pack frequencies and faction correlations are unavailable. EX Base and EX Resource never enter the six-Common game-card pool. Plain R-001 is excluded because the reviewed opening identifies it as the no-art starter printing, with no reviewed booster inclusion evidence.
• Parallel C+, U+, R+, LR+, C++ and LR++ printings are absent before drawing. Excluded foil Resource outcomes are normalized within the retained support pool; no chase roll or zero-EV occupied card remains. Sift and user filters run only after all 312 modeled cards are drawn and never backfill a filtered result.
• This SKU has no modeled box topper, purchase promotion, beta pack, or starter-deck bonus. Embedded pack EV is box EV divided by 24, including one support-card expectation per pack. The independent simulation estimates marginals and does not reproduce the opening's observed no-duplicate rarity distribution or confidence intervals for factory collation.
• No-chase redraw policy approved 2026-09-03: Curio, Enchanted, alternate-art, parallel, showcase, serialized, signature, premium-rarity, promotional, and any other card or treatment without a supported pull rate are excluded. A chase hit is redrawn from the applicable supported ordinary pool, so excluded cards occupy no modeled outcome.
• Simulation ordering is draw the complete disclosed no-chase product first, record that draw, and only then apply Sift or another user filter. Sift never changes or backfills the completed modeled draw.