Flesh and Blood

Outsiders Booster Display EV

Estimate the expected value (EV) of Outsiders booster displays using live TCGplayer market prices from generated local data. This calculator models product-specific slot composition, rarity weighting, and treatment pools to produce modeled EV and variance projections.

Model assumptions & evidence

Each sealed display is simulated pack-by-pack using the configured slot behavior shown below. Simulations always draw full pack contents first, then apply optional Sift filtering afterward so EV follows true opening order.

Set theme: Outsiders is themed around signature heroes, class identities, and chase treatments that define this Flesh and Blood release.

Model assumptions and exclusions

Publisher configuration: 24 sixteen-card packs per display, one rainbow foil, 11-12 commons, 1-2 rare-or-higher cards, and two token/back positions; estimated Cold Foil rate 1/24 packs. Collector Centre estimates RF Legendary 1/70, CF Legendary 1/264, Majestic 1/5, and Rare 1.75 per pack. OUT005-010 are described as 75% less frequent than regular Majestics; OUT102-104 as 50% less frequent. Fabled and Marvel aggregate rates are unknown. The product sheet cautions that particular cards, rarities, or types are not guaranteed in an individual pack, display, or case.

Retains the original frontend interpretations: the 1/5 Majestic target covers nonfoil plus Rainbow Foil, excluding Cold Foil; the 1.75 Rare target covers nonfoil only. Publisher rarity headlines do not explicitly resolve finish scope. The fixed Rare plus Common/Rare/Majestic flex decomposition is a retained model approximation, not a publisher guarantee. Remaining RF rarity shares use complete source-printing counts 110 Common / 51 Rare / 34 Majestic; CF shares use 14 Common / 8 Majestic after documented chase exclusions. Within each Majestic finish bucket, numbers005-010 receive quarter weights and102-104 half weights; applying these notes to foils is a retained interpretation without separately published foil odds. Other allocations are uniform, including seven CF Legendary printings, two Extended Art. Draws are independent with replacement; no factory sequence, color balancing, or duplicate guarantees are claimed. CF replaces one token/back position to preserve sixteen positions. Collector Centre token estimate1.75 differs from the product sheet two-token configuration and this original replacement model47/24; the explicit product configuration and qualified replacement assumption are retained.

The original page explicitly excludes Fabled and Marvel because aggregate rates are unknown; eligible outcomes are normalized before drawing. Ordinary token/back positions remain intentionally EV-excluded occupied positions. This does not assign missing token quotes a Market value or backfill them with game cards. All384 physical positions are drawn before Sift or user filters, without reroll or backfill. Expected eligible game-card count is337; this is not an all-collectibles valuation. Publisher rarity and printing notes.

24 packs / display 16 cards / pack Slots: 11-12C (NF) • 1 Rare (NF) • 1 Rare+ flex • 1 Rainbow Foil • 2 Token/back slots (one may be CF 1/24)

Set theme: Outsiders is themed around signature heroes, class identities, and chase treatments that define this Flesh and Blood release.

Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

Per-row shows combined pct + txn (txn = 2.5% processing). $0.30/order added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Changing this can materially lower EV if Market/Mid are stale. “Min” is most conservative.
Sift is applied after all 16 pack cards are drawn. Token/back slots contribute $0 unless replaced by CF; $0 cards only count when Sift = 0.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Runs per summary update; higher counts smooth the bands but take longer.

Purchase EV

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: —
Each bar groups simulated box totals after cards are drawn, then Sift is applied to pack hits. X-axis = box value, Y-axis = number of simulations in that range.

Pack & Box EV

Pack and box expected value summary across low, mid, and high estimates.
MetricLowMidHigh
Pack EV (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Simulated booster display EV (24 packs, gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Gross EV per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes)———
Total fees per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes)———
Net after fees per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes)———
Profit after fees per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes)———
Break-even price/box (mid)$0.00
Auto-loading generated card data…
Token/back slots contribute $0 EV unless replaced by CF; CF ≈1/24; CF Legendary ≈1/264; RF Legendary ≈1/70; Majestic ≈1/5 across RF+Rare+. CF Fabled/Marvel rows are visible but excluded because LSS publishes those rates as unknown.

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase-level expected value, fees, profit, and return across all boxes.
All boxesLowMidHigh
Gross EV$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after expenses$0.00$0.00$0.00
ROI vs cost———
Boxes: 0 • Price/box: $0.00 • Total cost: $0.00

Content snapshot

Display Content Snapshot

Pack contents are drawn first; Sift is applied only after the opened cards are known.

Packs
24 / display
Cards
16 / pack
Modeled cards
384 cards
EV rows
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Pack Structure

Product model
  1. 11-12C (NF)
  2. 1 Rare (NF)
  3. 1 Rare+ flex
  4. 1 Rainbow Foil
  5. 2 Token/back slots (one may be CF 1/24)

Every slot is resolved before value filtering; excluded outcomes are never backfilled.

Top EV Contributors

After post-draw Sift
  1. Loading card contributions…
Outsiders expected value rows by card, rarity, treatment, price, fees, and boxes per copy.
Name Card # Rarity Treatment Value ($) Seller fees Boxes / copy