Flesh and Blood

Usurp the Shadow Throne Booster Display EV

Estimate the opened value of a Usurp the Shadow Throne booster display: 24 packs with 16 cards each. Pack EV is shown alongside display EV.

Model assumptions & evidence

Inherited-rate estimate · Chase-excluded. This uses the official IAR pack structure and English Omens of the Third Age rarity rates. Those inherited rates are assumptions for IAR. Marvel, Fabled and serialized outcomes are excluded before drawing; eligible outcomes fill the complete pack.

Rates and assumptions

Each pack has 11 Commons, one guaranteed Rare, one Rare/Majestic slot (7/8 Rare, 1/8 Majestic), one Rainbow Foil, one Basic and one flexible back slot. The back slot is modeled as 1/24 Cold Foil, 1/7 expansion Majestic and 137/168 Basic.

The donor's rounded Rainbow Foil weights (Common 18/24, Rare 5.5/24, Majestic 1/42, Legendary 1/96) are normalized to 504:154:16:7. Cards are uniform within eligible pools; Cold Foil identities are uniform across eligible rarities. Back-slot exclusivity and pack correlations are assumptions. Available finish metadata may be incomplete before release.

Sources: IAR product contents and English Omens collector breakdown. Rates reviewed September 16, 2026. Full release September 25; prerelease September 18–24.

24 packs / display 16 cards / pack Slots: 11C (NF) • 1 Rare (NF) • 1 Rare+ (R/M NF) • 1 Rainbow Foil • 2 Basic/back slots (1 Cold Foil / 24 packs replaces a Basic)

Inherited-rate estimate · Chase-excluded.

Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

Per-row shows combined pct + txn. Optional per-order shipping costs are added only in the purchase summary.

Value Threshold

Generated card prices drive every EV basis. Direct Low falls back to Low or Market when unavailable.
Sift applies after each full generated-model pack draw. Filtered cards do not reroll or backfill slots. Chase exclusions are normalized before the complete pack is drawn.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Runs per summary update; higher counts smooth the bands but take longer.

Purchase EV

Sealed Price / EV

Advertising disclosure: The Expected Value may earn commissions from qualifying purchases made through affiliate links. Programs used by the site include TCGplayer, Mana Pool, the eBay Partner Network, and Amazon Associates. As an Amazon Associate, The Expected Value earns from qualifying purchases.

Generated sealed booster box price compared with the simulated Mid break-even value after fees.
Source Box price Break-even price/box (mid net) P/E Basis
Generated sealed prices Loading… — — Waiting for generated IAR product-prices.json.

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: —
Each bar groups simulated box totals after full pack contents are drawn, Sift is applied, and seller fees are removed. X-axis = net box value, Y-axis = number of simulations in that range.

Pack & Box EV

Monte Carlo outcomes with low and high confidence bounds. The displayed Mid is the median simulated result.
MetricLowMidHigh
Pack EV (gross)———
Box EV × 24 (gross)———
Gross EV per box (Purchase / Boxes)———
Total fees per box (Purchase / Boxes)———
Net after fees per box (Purchase / Boxes)———
Profit after fees per box (Purchase / Boxes)———
Break-even price/box (mid, after fees)—
Auto-loading generated IAR data…
Generated model probabilities are sampled in the browser; disabled or sifted rows are removed after the draw and never backfilled.

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value and after-fee profit for all selected boxes.
All boxesLowMidHigh
Gross EV———
Total fees———
Net after fees———
Profit after expenses———
ROI vs cost———
Boxes: 0 • Price/box: $0.00 • Total cost: $0.00

Content snapshot

Display Content Snapshot

Pack contents are drawn first; Sift is applied only after the opened cards are known.

Packs
24 / display
Cards
16 / pack
Modeled cards
384 cards
EV rows
Loading

Pack Structure

Product model
  1. 11C (NF)
  2. 1 Rare (NF)
  3. 1 Rare+ (R/M NF)
  4. 1 Rainbow Foil
  5. 2 Basic/back slots (1 Cold Foil / 24 packs replaces a Basic)

Every slot is resolved before value filtering; excluded outcomes are never backfilled.

Top EV Contributors

After post-draw Sift
  1. Loading card contributions…

Booster Pack Cards

Usurp the Shadow Throne generated model rows with rarity, clean treatment, value, fees, and expected boxes per copy.
Name Card # Rarity Treatment Value ($) Seller fees Boxes / copy