Flesh and Blood

Bright Lights Booster Display EV

Estimate the expected value (EV) of Bright Lights booster displays using live TCGplayer market prices via TCGCSV. This calculator models product-specific slot composition, rarity weighting, and treatment pools to produce realistic EV and variance projections.

Model assumptions & evidence

Each sealed display is simulated pack-by-pack using the configured slot behavior shown below. Simulations always draw full pack contents first, then apply optional Sift filtering afterward so EV follows true opening order.

Model review: The publisher specifies 24 packs of 16 cards: eleven commons, one rare, one rare-or-majestic, one rainbow foil, and two token positions. Expansion cards EVO235-249 replace a token in approximately one in fifteen packs; cold foil, extended-art and legendary/fabled outcomes also belong to token positions. The retained model has not yet reconciled their joint finish allocation, so full-product EV is held. Its 1:80 rainbow-foil and 1:220 cold-foil Legendary split is an assumption, while the publisher states a combined approximate 1:70 Legendary rate. The 25% Majestic allocation and uniform within-pool weights are also assumptions. Full contents must be constructed before Sift or filters, with no reroll or backfill.

Set theme: Bright Lights is themed around signature heroes, class identities, and chase treatments that define this Flesh and Blood release.

24 packs / display 16 cards / pack Slots: 11C (NF) • 1 Rare (NF) • 1 Rare+ (R/M NF) • 1 RF • 2 back slots (Token | Expansion | CF)

Set theme: Bright Lights is themed around signature heroes, class identities, and chase treatments that define this Flesh and Blood release.

Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

Per-row shows combined pct + txn (txn = 2.5% processing). $0.30/order added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Changing this can materially shift EV when marketplace prices are stale or sparse. “Min” is most conservative.
Sift is applied to the 16 drawn cards per pack (post‑draw). $0 cards (Token/Expansion) only count when Sift = 0.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Runs per summary update; higher counts smooth the bands but take longer.

Purchase EV

US Sealed Price / EV

Compares the current sealed box price to this calculator's break-even price/box after fees. Marketplace rows use each marketplace's low sealed-product price when available.

Sealed box price to break-even EV comparison by marketplace.
Marketplace Box price Break-even price/box (mid) P/E Basis
TCGplayer Loading... -- -- Low sealed price when available.
eBay Loading... -- -- Low sealed price when available.

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: —
Each bar groups simulated box totals after cards are drawn, then Sift is applied to pack hits. X-axis = box value, Y-axis = number of simulations in that range.

Pack & Box EV

Pack and box expected value summary across low, mid, and high estimates.
MetricLowMidHigh
Pack EV (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Simulated booster display EV (24 packs, gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Gross EV per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes)———
Total fees per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes)———
Net after fees per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes)———
Profit after fees per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes)———
Break-even price/box (mid)$0.00
Auto-loading generated card data…
Token/Expansion slots remain occupied $0 EV placeholders unless Cold Foil; normal Expansion Slot and normal Legendary rows are not given unsourced card-level odds. CF ≈1/24; CF Legendary ≈1/220; RF Legendary ≈1/80; Maximum Velocity is modeled at half a normal Majestic frequency.

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase-level EV, fees, profit, and ROI across low, mid, and high estimates.
All boxesLowMidHigh
Gross EV$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after expenses$0.00$0.00$0.00
ROI vs cost———
Boxes: 0 • Price/box: $0.00 • Total cost: $0.00

Content snapshot

Display Content Snapshot

Pack contents are drawn first; Sift is applied only after the opened cards are known.

Packs
24 / display
Cards
16 / pack
Modeled cards
384 cards
EV rows
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Pack Structure

Product model
  1. 11C (NF)
  2. 1 Rare (NF)
  3. 1 Rare+ (R/M NF)
  4. 1 RF
  5. 2 back slots (Token | Expansion | CF)

Every slot is resolved before value filtering; excluded outcomes are never backfilled.

Top EV Contributors

After post-draw Sift
  1. Loading card contributions…
Bright Lights card EV rows with modeled drop rate, prices, seller fees, and boxes per copy.
Name Card # Rarity Treatment Value ($) Seller fees Boxes / copy