Secrets of Strixhaven Draft Night EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of a Secrets of Strixhaven Draft Night (12 Play Boosters, 1 Collector Booster, 90 non-foil basic lands) using generated TCGplayer, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket price snapshots. The calculator combines published slot odds with the documented approximations below where exact sub-1% shares are unavailable.

Model assumptions & evidence

Each draft night is modeled as 12 Play Boosters + 1 Collector Booster + 90 non-foil basic lands using the card-slot configurations listed below, including product-specific bonus-sheet or treatment behavior where applicable. Simulations always draw full pack contents first, then apply optional Sift filtering afterward so EV follows true opening order.

Set theme: Secrets of Strixhaven features the Mystical Archive bonus sheet with reprints of iconic spells in English and Japanese art, field notes and borderless variant treatments, full-art lands, and Special Guests from across Magic's history.

Sub-1% model assumptions: the Play Booster wildcard uses 0.3% borderless and 0.1% Field Notes shares, while its rare/mythic slot uses a 0.6% Field Notes mythic share. The Play Booster foil slot uses 0.4% borderless, 0.2% Field Notes, 0.6% Mystical Archive rare, and 0.2% Mystical Archive mythic shares. Collector Booster slots normalize the published rounded rates over eligible nonserialized cards. Cards within each bucket are equally weighted; the 90 fixed basic lands are assumed to contain nine copies of each of ten arts.
12 Play Boosters / draft night 1 Collector Booster / draft night 90 NF basic lands / draft night 14 game cards / play pack · 15 game cards / collector pack SOS slot models include Mystical Archive, borderless, field notes, extended art, Commander, and Special Guests outcomes
SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.
Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

Per-row fees follow the selected seller type. Any fixed order-processing fee and shipping costs are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Prices load from generated card-prices snapshots. TCG, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket choices use the same card rows; EV applies Sift only after each pack's contents are drawn.
Rows with Value ≥ Sift tint green. EV only uses Sift if toggled on, and it is applied after each pack’s cards are drawn.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Runs per summary update; higher counts smooth the bands but take longer.
Low/High = central quantiles measured from Monte Carlo pack openings.

Purchase EV

Included setsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls
Sift is a price floor (USD): rows with Value ≥ Sift tint green. EV only uses Sift if you enable the toggle below.

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: —
Each bar groups simulated draft night totals after cards are drawn, then Sift is applied to pack hits. X-axis = draft night value, Y-axis = number of simulations in that range.

Draft Night EV

Draft night expected value summary across low, mid, and high estimates.
MetricLowMidHigh
Pack EV (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Draft Night EV (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Gross EV per draft night$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees per draft night$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees per draft night$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after fees per draft night$0.00$0.00$0.00
Break‑even price/draft night (mid)$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value summary.
All draft nightsLowMidHigh
Gross EV$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after expenses$0.00$0.00$0.00
ROI vs cost———
Draft nights: 0 • Price/draft night: $0.00 • Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

Secrets of Strixhaven Draft Night Content Snapshot

The calculator retains this product's existing slot model and resolves complete contents before included-pool controls or optional Sift score the result.

Boosters
12 Play Boosters / draft night
Boosters
1 Collector Booster / draft night
Product detail
90 NF basic lands / draft night
Rows
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Product Structure

This Secrets of Strixhaven Draft Night is modeled from the complete product components listed below.

Play Boosters12 Play Boosters / draft night
Complete modeled contents are drawn before included-pool controls and optional Sift are applied as scoring filters.
Collector Boosters1 Collector Booster / draft night
This component remains governed by the calculator's existing product-specific model.
Basic Lands90 NF basic lands / draft night
This component remains governed by the calculator's existing product-specific model.
Booster Contents14 game cards / play pack · 15 game cards / collector pack
This component remains governed by the calculator's existing product-specific model.
Modeled TreatmentsSOS slot models include Mystical Archive, borderless, field notes, extended art, Commander, and Special Guests outcomes
This component remains governed by the calculator's existing product-specific model.

Future EV calculations should draw all 12 Play Boosters, 1 Collector Booster, and fixed cards first, then apply any Sift or filtering logic after the draw.

Non-game inserts are not counted toward EV unless the model explicitly lists them.

Showing all cards
Modeled card rows and expected copies per draft night.
Name Set Card # Rarity Treatment Value Seller fees Draft nights / copy
Total (Expected / draft night) — included sets & Sift 0.00
Expected / draft night0.00