Reality Fracture Draft Night EV Calculator
Estimate the opened-card value of Reality Fracture Draft Night, compare sealed prices, and apply your selling fees and Sift threshold.
Model assumptions & evidence
Draft Night supplies twelve Play Boosters for a four-player Pick-Two draft, a Collector Booster, and ninety basic lands. As a modeling assumption, the 18 lands of each type are split across all five FRA artworks with extra copies assigned to the lowest collector numbers.
Complete contents, including correlated echoed pairs, are drawn before Sift or pool filters score them. Filtered cards are never rerolled or backfilled.
Collector baseline: Serialized Bloodline Recollector and unknown-rate facet foil shattered mirror outcomes are excluded before drawing. Eligible non-chase outcomes fill the same slot after normalization; the physical card count stays complete. Japan Showcase traditional foil (9%) and fracture foil (1%) are included.
Collector baseline: Serialized Bloodline Recollector and unknown-rate facet foil shattered mirror outcomes are excluded before drawing.
Selling Fees
Value Threshold
EV Range (Monte Carlo)
Purchase EV
Included poolsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls
Sealed Price / EV
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| Source | Product price | Break-even price/draft night (mid) | P/E | Basis |
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Simulation Results (after Sift)
Draft Night EV
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| draft night EV (gross) | — | — | — |
| Total fees per draft night | — | — | — |
| Net after fees per draft night | — | — | — |
| Profit after fees per draft night | — | — | — |
| Break-even price/draft night (mid) | — | ||
Purchase EV & Profit
| All draft nights | Low | Mid | High |
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| Gross EV | — | — | — |
| Total fees | — | — | — |
| Net after fees | — | — | — |
| Profit after expenses | — | — | — |
| ROI vs cost | - | - | - |
Content Snapshot
Reality Fracture Draft Night Contents
Draft Night supplies twelve Play Boosters for a four-player Pick-Two draft, a Collector Booster, and ninety basic lands. As a modeling assumption, the 18 lands of each type are split across all five FRA artworks with extra copies assigned to the lowest collector numbers.
- Game cards
- 273
- Rows
- Loading
Product Structure
All 273 game-card positions belong to the complete product before Sift or pool filtering. Tokens, art cards, packaging, and accessories are not valued as singles.
Release-specific model analysis
What drives Reality Fracture Draft Night
Product profile. This draft night resolves 273 card positions across 888 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated September 23, 2026 contains 265 Rare, 248 Uncommon, 163 Common, 138 Mythic Rare, 74 Basic Land. Its largest slot groups are 71 fra common foil, 71 fra common nonfoil, 66 fra echoU foil, 66 fra echoU nonfoil, 50 fra rare foil. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.
Largest modeled weights. Forest (Default Basic Land) #289 (4.00 expected per draft night), Forest (Default Basic Land) #290 (4.00 expected per draft night), Forest (Tower Basic Land) #394 (4.00 expected per draft night), Island (Default Basic Land) #283 (4.00 expected per draft night), Island (Default Basic Land) #284 (4.00 expected per draft night). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.
Release-specific card examples. Academic Ascent #2, Aerid Konstrari (Japan Showcase Fracture Foil) #417, Aerid Konstrari (Japan Showcase) #407, Aerid Konstrari (Sculptor's Stronghold) #347, Aerid Konstrari #121, Afterthought Sentry #166, Ajani Resolute (Borderless Echoed Pairs) #291, Ajani Resolute #195, Emrakul, the Exigent Doom #1. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.
Current value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated September 23, 2026, 739 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Plains (Tower Basic Land) #382 ($12.00), Island (Tower Basic Land) #385 ($12.00), Swamp (Tower Basic Land) #388 ($12.00), Mountain (Tower Basic Land) #391 ($12.00), Forest (Tower Basic Land) #394 ($12.00). Together those five rows account for 7.8% of the modeled gross value, so changes in those cards can move the estimate materially.
The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.
| Name | Set | Card # | Rarity | Treatment | Value | Seller fees | Products / copy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total expected cards/draft night after toggles and Sift | 0.00 | ||||||