Zendikar Rising Draft Booster Box EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of Zendikar Rising Draft Booster Box using daily generated TCGplayer price snapshots and the backend draft-box model.

Model assumptions & evidence

This historical model draws all game-card slots first, then applies included-bucket toggles and optional Sift filtering as post-draw scoring filters.

Draw 36 complete fifteen-card packs and one nonfoil Expedition box topper: 541 game cards. Traditional foils replace a common in around one-third of packs; eligible showcase and borderless printings are included. The detailed MDFC coupling and printing allocations are documented community assumptions. Missing exact prices remain unknown and any incomplete value is disclosed.

36 packs / box 15 game cards / pack 541 modeled card slots / box Backend Draft Booster model

Snapshot TCG Market + $0.25 Sift Based on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.

Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

TCG seller type

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Price source for EV

Prices load from daily generated TCGplayer, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket snapshots. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.

Sift

Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Central interval

Simulations

Use Sift (>=) in EV

Purchase EV

Boxes Purchased

Price per box ($)

Included model buckets Choose which backend model buckets count toward EV. Backend model

Loading backend model buckets...

Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Sealed Price / EV

Advertising disclosure: The Expected Value may earn commissions from qualifying purchases made through affiliate links. Programs used by the site include TCGplayer, Mana Pool, the eBay Partner Network, and Amazon Associates. As an Amazon Associate, The Expected Value earns from qualifying purchases.

Marketplace sealed box price compared to the current break-even price/box (mid).
Source	Box price	Break-even price/box (mid)	P/E	Basis
Mana Pool	-	-	-	Unavailable
TCGplayer	-	-	-	Unavailable
eBay	-	-	-	Unavailable
Amazon	-	-	-	Unavailable

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: -

Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Pack & Box EV

Expected value summary across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
Metric	Low	Mid	High
Average pack EV (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Box EV x 36 (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Gross EV per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Profit after fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)	$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value and profit summary across all selected boxes.
All boxes	Low	Mid	High
Gross EV	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Profit after expenses	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
ROI vs cost	-	-	-

Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

Zendikar Rising Draft Display Contents

36 complete packs plus one nonfoil Expedition topper: 541 game cards. Token, ad, art and helper inserts are not priced game cards.

Boosters: 36
Cards per pack: 15
Nonfoil topper: 1
Game cards: 541 / box
Modeled rows: Loading

Complete Product Structure

Common positions10 cards

Ten nonfoil commons, or nine plus one traditional foil. Publisher around-one-third replacement is modeled as 1/3.

Uncommons3 cards

Three total nonfoil uncommons, including a modal double-faced uncommon in that community branch.

Rare / Mythic1 card

One nonfoil rare/mythic; publisher mythic aggregate 1 in 7.4. A modal double-faced rare/mythic occupies this position in its community branch.

Full-art basic land1 card

One nonfoil full-art basic land from the fifteen eligible printings.

Modal double-faced cardWithin its rarity position

The community reconstruction guarantees one nonfoil MDFC within the three uncommon or one rare/mythic positions. A foil MDFC can be additional.

Expedition box topper1 per display

One nonfoil Expedition, allocated uniformly among 30 exact printings as an assumption. Foil Expeditions are Collector-only.

Detailed sheet weights, conditional MDFC allocation and showcase/borderless proportions use a pinned product-specific community reconstruction. They do not certify factory sequencing, color balancing or box guarantees.

Draw all packs and the required topper before Sift or included-pool scoring; filters never reroll or backfill.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives Zendikar Rising Draft Booster Box

Product profile. This draft booster box resolves 541 card positions across 656 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated October 16, 2026 contains 220 Common, 172 Uncommon, 154 Rare, 80 Mythic Rare, 30 Basic Land. Its largest slot groups are 313 znrd foilwithshowcase, 110 znrd commonwithshowcase, 79 znrd sfcraremythicwithshowcase, 66 znrd sfcuncommonwithshowcase, 30 znrd expedition topper. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.

Largest modeled weights. Adventure Awaits #177 (3.45 expected per draft booster box), Angelheart Protector #3 (3.45 expected per draft booster box), Anticognition #45 (3.45 expected per draft booster box), Ardent Electromancer #135 (3.45 expected per draft booster box), Blood Beckoning #92 (3.45 expected per draft booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. Acquisitions Expert #89, Agadeem's Awakening #90, Akiri, Fearless Voyager #220, Akoum Hellhound (Showcase) #299, Akoum Warrior #134, Allied Assault #1, Ancient Tomb (Expedition) #21, Forest (278) - Full Art (Full Art), Plains (266) - Full Art (Full Art). Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 656 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Malakir Rebirth #111 ($18.35), Bala Ged Recovery #180 ($9.65), Sea Gate Restoration #76 ($9.16), Valakut Awakening #174 ($8.61), Agadeem's Awakening #90 ($6.89). Together those five rows account for 22.3% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

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Modeled card expected value rows for this product.
Name	Set	Card #	Rarity	Treatment	Value ($)	Seller fees (pct + txn)	Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift							0.00
Sanity total expected copies / box - all modeled rows							0.00
Gap to 541 modeled card slots / box							0.00

Expected copies / box0.00

Sanity check totals (ignore Sift and bucket toggles)

Model source: data-static/magic/znr/models/draft-box.json. The model documents sealed contents as drawn first, then Sift and bucket filters are applied afterward.