Zendikar Draft Booster Box EV Calculator

Explore a conditional Zendikar Booster Box scenario with generated TCGplayer prices. Full-product EV remains unresolved because known short-print common marginals are not reproduced.

Model assumptions & evidence

This historical model draws all game-card slots first, then applies included-bucket toggles and optional Sift filtering as post-draw scoring filters.

Conditional research scenario — full-product EV is unresolved. Primary US Zendikar collation research identifies Hedron Scrabbler as short-printed; the uniform common pool used here does not reproduce that observed marginal. Exact common-run mixture and foil-displacement probabilities still need evidence. The diagnostic recipe draws 36 complete fifteen-card packs (540 game-card positions): ten commons, three uncommons, one rare/mythic and one full-art land, with an estimated 22.5% foil event replacing one common. All 249 ordinary foil printings are represented; the rare/mythic sheet uses two copies of each rare and one of each mythic. Foil frequency, foil rarity mix and uniform allocations remain community assumptions, not verified factory probabilities. Full-art lands 230–249 are eligible; regular-frame 230a–249a lands and ad/token supplements are outside game-card EV. Preserve the documented pre-draw no-chase exclusion of Priceless Treasures: its branch is absent and eligible land outcomes fill the land position. Draw complete contents before Sift or user filters, without reroll or backfill. Supplying exact prices does not resolve this model blocker. Primary collation research; conditional community recipe.

36 packs / box15 game cards / pack540 modeled card slots / boxBackend Draft Booster model

SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.

Conditional research scenario — full-product EV is unresolved.

Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

TCG seller type

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Price source for EV

Prices load from daily generated TCGplayer, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket snapshots. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.

Sift

Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Central interval

Simulations

Use Sift (>=) in EV

Purchase EV

Boxes Purchased

Price per box ($)

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls

Loading backend model buckets...

Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Sealed Price / EV

Advertising disclosure: The Expected Value may earn commissions from qualifying purchases made through affiliate links. Programs used by the site include TCGplayer, Mana Pool, the eBay Partner Network, and Amazon Associates. As an Amazon Associate, The Expected Value earns from qualifying purchases.

Marketplace sealed box price compared to the current break-even price/box (mid).
Source	Box price	Break-even price/box (mid)	P/E	Basis
Mana Pool	-	-	-	Unavailable
TCGplayer	-	-	-	Unavailable
eBay	-	-	-	Unavailable
Amazon	-	-	-	Unavailable

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: -

Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Pack & Box EV

Expected value summary across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
Metric	Low	Mid	High
Average pack EV (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Box EV x 36 (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Gross EV per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Profit after fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)	$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value and profit summary across all selected boxes.
All boxes	Low	Mid	High
Gross EV	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Profit after expenses	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
ROI vs cost	-	-	-

Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

Zendikar Draft Booster Content Snapshot

The calculator retains this product's existing slot model and resolves complete contents before included-pool controls or optional Sift score the result.

Packs: 36 packs / box
Cards: 15 game cards / pack
Modeled total: 540 modeled card slots / box
Rows: Loading

Pack Structure

Each Zendikar Draft Booster is modeled with 15 game-card slots.

Commons10 cards / pack

Pool: 101 modeled card outcomes.Common slots: 10 expected / pack.

Uncommons3 cards / pack

Pool: 60 modeled card outcomes.Uncommon slots: 3 expected / pack.

Land1 card / pack

Pool: 20 modeled card outcomes.Basic land slots: 1 expected / pack.

Rare / Mythic1 card / pack

Pool: 68 modeled card outcomes.Rare/mythic slot: 1 expected / pack.

Draw all game-card slots first, then apply any Sift or filtering logic afterward.

Non-game inserts are not counted toward EV unless the model explicitly lists them.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives Zendikar Booster Box

Product profile. This draft booster box resolves 540 card positions across 498 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated October 16, 2026 contains 202 Common, 120 Uncommon, 106 Rare, 40 Basic Land, 30 Mythic Rare. Its largest slot groups are 249 zen foil, 101 zen common, 68 zen raremythic, 60 zen uncommon, 20 zen basic. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.

Largest modeled weights. Adventuring Gear #195 (3.48 expected per draft booster box), Beast Hunt #158 (3.48 expected per draft booster box), Bladetusk Boar #118 (3.48 expected per draft booster box), Blood Seeker #80 (3.48 expected per draft booster box), Bog Tatters #84 (3.48 expected per draft booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. Aether Figment #40, Akoum Refuge #210, Archive Trap #41, Bold Defense #3, Forest - Full Art (Full Art) #246, Swamp - Full Art (Full Art) #238, Swamp - Full Art (Full Art) #240, Island - Full Art (Full Art) #237. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 498 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Scalding Tarn #223 ($24.17), Arid Mesa #211 ($22.57), Misty Rainforest #220 ($22.00), Marsh Flats #219 ($20.30), Verdant Catacombs #229 ($18.29). Together those five rows account for 26.1% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

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Modeled card expected value rows for this product.
Name	Set	Card #	Rarity	Treatment	Value ($)	Seller fees (pct + txn)	Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift							0.00
Sanity total expected copies / box - all modeled rows							0.00
Gap to 540 modeled card slots / box							0.00

Expected copies / box0.00

Sanity check totals (ignore Sift and bucket toggles)

Model source: data-static/magic/zen/models/draft-box.json. This conditional community recipe includes ordinary foil replacements but does not reproduce the source-identified short-print common marginal. Full-product EV remains unavailable.