Ixalan Draft Booster Box EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of Ixalan Booster Box using daily generated TCGplayer price snapshots and the backend draft-box model.

Model assumptions & evidence

This historical model draws all game-card slots first, then applies included-bucket toggles and optional Sift filtering as post-draw scoring filters.

Full-product EV is unverified. This conditional projection draws 540 physical card positions, including a non-game checklist whenever a double-faced card appears. Additional checklist frequency and the source-identified Ritual of Rejuvenation short-print marginal remain unresolved. Uniform common weights are retained only for diagnostics. Checklists remain outside the original game-card valuation; they are never backfilled with a game card. Other documented assumptions are explained below.

36 packs / box15 physical card positions / pack540 physical card positions / boxBackend Draft Booster model

SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.

Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

TCG seller type

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Price source for EV

Prices load from daily generated TCGplayer, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket snapshots. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.

Sift

Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Central interval

Simulations

Use Sift (>=) in EV

Purchase EV

Boxes Purchased

Price per box ($)

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls

Loading backend model buckets...

Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Sealed Price / EV

Advertising disclosure: The Expected Value may earn commissions from qualifying purchases made through affiliate links. Programs used by the site include TCGplayer, Mana Pool, the eBay Partner Network, and Amazon Associates. As an Amazon Associate, The Expected Value earns from qualifying purchases.

Marketplace sealed box price compared to the current break-even price/box (mid).
Source	Box price	Break-even price/box (mid)	P/E	Basis
Mana Pool	-	-	-	Unavailable
TCGplayer	-	-	-	Unavailable
eBay	-	-	-	Unavailable
Amazon	-	-	-	Unavailable

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Simulated outcome interval: -

Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Pack & Box EV

Expected value summary across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
Metric	Low	Mid	High
Average pack EV (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Box EV x 36 (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Gross EV per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Profit after fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)	$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value and profit summary across all selected boxes.
All boxes	Low	Mid	High
Gross EV	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Profit after expenses	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
ROI vs cost	-	-	-

Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

Ixalan Draft Booster Content Snapshot

The calculator retains this product's existing slot model and resolves complete contents before included-pool controls or optional Sift score the result.

Packs: 36 packs / box
Cards: 15 physical card positions / pack
Modeled total: 540 physical card positions / box
Rows: Loading

Pack Structure

Each pack has 15 physical card positions, including the basic-land/checklist position.

Common9.7761 expected / pack

Ten commons, or nine when a premium replaces one. Original uniform common weights are conditional because known short-print marginals are unresolved.

Uncommon3 cards / pack

Original 80-printing uniform allocation retained.

Rare / mythic1 card / pack

Publisher-attributed 141 positions:63 rares twice,15 mythics once; ten rare double-faced cards are included.

Basic land / checklist1 physical position / pack

Any ordinary or foil DFC forces an intentionally EV-excluded checklist. Unknown additional non-DFC checklist occurrences are omitted only in this conditional projection.

Premium foil15/67 expected / pack

Retain original aggregate and other rarity assumptions. The Collation Project reconstructed common/basic foil sheet gives each of its 121 printings equal relative weight; this is attributed research, not an inspected original photograph.

Draw all game-card slots first, then apply any Sift or filtering logic afterward.

Non-game inserts are not counted toward EV unless the model explicitly lists them.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives Ixalan Booster Box

Product profile. This draft booster box resolves 540 card positions across 559 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated October 16, 2026 contains 202 Common, 160 Uncommon, 126 Rare, 40 Basic Land, 30 Mythic Rare, 1 Checklist. Its largest slot groups are 101 old common, 101 old common foil, 80 old uncommon, 80 old uncommon foil, 63 old rare. 1 modeled row is explicitly disclosed as EV-excluded and omitted from the value contribution.

Largest modeled weights. Ancient Brontodon #175 (3.48 expected per draft booster box), Anointed Deacon #89 (3.48 expected per draft booster box), Bishop's Soldier #6 (3.48 expected per draft booster box), Blight Keeper #92 (3.48 expected per draft booster box), Blinding Fog #177 (3.48 expected per draft booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. Adanto Vanguard #1, Admiral Beckett Brass #217, Air Elemental #45, Angrath's Marauders #132, Arcane Adaptation #46, Axis of Mortality #3, Blossom Dryad #178, Brazen Buccaneers #134, Ashes of the Abhorrent #2. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 558 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Revel in Riches #117 ($9.51), Primal Amulet #243 ($6.17), Growing Rites of Itlimoc #191 ($3.81), Vanquisher's Banner #251 ($2.81), Herald of Secret Streams #59 ($2.77). Together those five rows account for 17.4% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

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Modeled card expected value rows for this product.
Name	Set	Card #	Rarity	Treatment	Value ($)	Seller fees (pct + txn)	Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift							0.00
Sanity total expected copies / box - all modeled rows							0.00
Gap to 540 physical card positions / box							0.00

Expected copies / box0.00

Sanity check totals (ignore Sift and bucket toggles)

Model source: data-static/magic/xln/models/draft-box.json. The model documents sealed contents as drawn first, then Sift and bucket filters are applied afterward.