Weatherlight Draft Booster Box EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of Weatherlight Booster Box using daily generated TCGplayer price snapshots and the backend draft-box model.

Model assumptions & evidence

Draw all 540 nonfoil cards in the 36 fifteen-card boosters before Sift or included-pool scoring. Filtered cards are never rerolled or backfilled.

Primary research for Belgian-printed English Weatherlight identifies one common from group A (Shattered Crypt, Bogardan Firefiend, Tolarian Drake, Benalish Knight, Harvest Wurm, Jangling Automaton or Mind Stone), ten from the other 55 commons, three uncommons and one rare. Uniform allocation within each pool remains an approximation: the possible extra-copy common on the original sheet is unknown. Independent draws do not reconstruct factory sequencing, color balancing or duplicate avoidance. Weatherlight predates parallel foils and printed collector numbers; existing reference labels identify exact printings. No basic-land, foil or topper slot is added. Missing selected-source quotes remain unknown, with incomplete values disclosed as priced-card subtotals.
36 packs / box15 game cards / pack540 modeled card slots / boxBackend Draft Booster model
SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.
Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Prices load from daily generated TCGplayer, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket snapshots. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.
Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Purchase EV

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls
Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: -
Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Pack & Box EV

Expected value summary across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
MetricLowMidHigh
Average pack EV (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Box EV x 36 (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Gross EV per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value and profit summary across all selected boxes.
All boxesLowMidHigh
Gross EV$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after expenses$0.00$0.00$0.00
ROI vs cost---
Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

Weatherlight Draft Booster Content Snapshot

The calculator retains this product's existing slot model and resolves complete contents before included-pool controls or optional Sift score the result.

Packs
36 packs / box
Cards
15 game cards / pack
Modeled total
540 modeled card slots / box
Rows
Loading

Pack Structure

Each Weatherlight Draft Booster is modeled with 15 game-card slots.

Uncommons3 cards / pack
Pool: 55 modeled card outcomes.Uncommon slots: 3 expected / pack.
Rare / Mythic1 card / pack
Pool: 50 modeled card outcomes.Rare slot: 1 expected / pack.
Common group B slots10 cards / pack
Pool: 55 modeled card outcomes.Common group B slots: 10 expected / pack.
Common group A slot1 card / pack
Pool: 7 modeled card outcomes.Common group A slot: 1 expected / pack.

Draw all game-card slots first, then apply any Sift or filtering logic afterward.

Non-game inserts are not counted toward EV unless the model explicitly lists them.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives Weatherlight Booster Box

Product profile. This draft booster box resolves 540 card positions across 167 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated October 16, 2026 contains 62 Common, 55 Uncommon, 50 Rare. Its largest slot groups are 55 old common group b, 55 old uncommon, 50 old rare, 7 old common group a. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.

Largest modeled weights. Abjure (6.55 expected per draft booster box), Abyssal Gatekeeper (6.55 expected per draft booster box), Alms (6.55 expected per draft booster box), Angelic Renewal (6.55 expected per draft booster box), Apathy (6.55 expected per draft booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. Abduction, Abeyance, Ardent Militia, Benalish Knight, Aboroth, Agonizing Memories, Alabaster Dragon, Ancestral Knowledge. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 167 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Null Rod ($82.01), Scorched Ruins ($48.10), Firestorm ($38.07), Lotus Vale ($27.81), Winding Canyons ($23.98). Together those five rows account for 37.0% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

Showing all cards
Modeled card expected value rows for this product.
NameSetReferenceRarityTreatmentValue ($)Seller fees (pct + txn)Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift0.00
Expected copies / box0.00