War of the Spark Draft Booster Box EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of War of the Spark Booster Box using daily generated TCGplayer price snapshots and the backend draft-box model.

Model assumptions & evidence

Each of 36 complete fifteen-card packs contains one guaranteed nonfoil planeswalker in its own rarity position. The complete box is drawn before Sift or included-pool scoring; rejected outcomes are never rerolled or backfilled.

The English model retains all 264 main-set printings in nonfoil and traditional foil. Four community-reconstructed pack variants preserve three total nonfoil uncommons, one nonfoil rare/mythic, one basic land and a common replaced by a foil in 22.5% of packs. Detailed odds and independent sheet draws are documented assumptions, not manufacturer-certified factory sequencing or box guarantees.

36 packs / box15 game cards / pack540 modeled card slots / boxBackend Draft Booster model

SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.

Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

TCG seller type

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Price source for EV

Prices load from daily generated TCGplayer, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket snapshots. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.

Sift

Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Central interval

Simulations

Use Sift (>=) in EV

Purchase EV

Boxes Purchased

Price per box ($)

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls

Loading backend model buckets...

Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Sealed Price / EV

Advertising disclosure: The Expected Value may earn commissions from qualifying purchases made through affiliate links. Programs used by the site include TCGplayer, Mana Pool, the eBay Partner Network, and Amazon Associates. As an Amazon Associate, The Expected Value earns from qualifying purchases.

Marketplace sealed box price compared to the current break-even price/box (mid).
Source	Box price	Break-even price/box (mid)	P/E	Basis
Mana Pool	-	-	-	Unavailable
TCGplayer	-	-	-	Unavailable
eBay	-	-	-	Unavailable
Amazon	-	-	-	Unavailable

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Simulated outcome interval: -

Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Pack & Box EV

Expected value summary across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
Metric	Low	Mid	High
Average pack EV (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Box EV x 36 (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Gross EV per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Profit after fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)	$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value and profit summary across all selected boxes.
All boxes	Low	Mid	High
Gross EV	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Profit after expenses	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
ROI vs cost	-	-	-

Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

War of the Spark English Booster Box Contents

36 complete fifteen-card packs: 540 game cards. Token/ad inserts and separately supplied promotional cards are not counted in this opening value.

Boosters: 36
Cards per pack: 15
Game cards: 540 / box
Eligible printings: 264 in both finishes
Modeled rows: Loading

Complete Pack Structure

Common positions10 cards

Ten nonfoil commons, or nine commons plus one traditional foil.

Uncommon positions3 cards

The guaranteed planeswalker occupies one uncommon position in the uncommon-planeswalker branch; the other two are nonplaneswalkers.

Rare/mythic position1 card

This is the guaranteed planeswalker in the rare/mythic-planeswalker branch; otherwise it is a nonplaneswalker.

Basic land1 card

One of the 15 normal nonfoil basic lands.

Guaranteed planeswalkerWithin its own rarity position

Exactly one nonfoil planeswalker is drawn through the correlated rarity branches. A foil planeswalker can be an additional planeswalker in the common-replacement position.

The pinned four-variant community recipe uses weights 899:261:2852:828 (total 4840), a 22.5% foil common-replacement event, and a 2:1 per-printing nonfoil rare/mythic allocation. These detailed probabilities are assumptions; Wizards establishes the guaranteed planeswalker and its own-rarity position.

Draw every complete pack before applying Sift or included-pool filters, without replacement draws or backfills.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives War of the Spark Booster Box

Product profile. This draft booster box resolves 540 card positions across 528 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated August 24, 2026 contains 202 Common, 160 Uncommon, 106 Rare, 30 Basic Land, 30 Mythic Rare. Its largest slot groups are 264 war foil, 101 war common, 60 war nonplaneswalkeruncommon, 52 war nonplaneswalkerraremythic, 20 war planeswalkeruncommon. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.

Largest modeled weights. Ahn-Crop Invader #113 (3.48 expected per draft booster box), Aid the Fallen #76 (3.48 expected per draft booster box), Arboreal Grazer #149 (3.48 expected per draft booster box), Arlinn's Wolf #151 (3.48 expected per draft booster box), Ashiok's Skulker #40 (3.48 expected per draft booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. Ajani, the Greathearted #184, Ajani's Pridemate #4, Angrath, Captain of Chaos #227, Aven Eternal #42, Awakening of Vitu-Ghazi #152, Chandra, Fire Artisan #119, Forest #262, Plains #250. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 528 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Finale of Devastation #160 ($13.93), Bolas's Citadel #79 ($9.07), Kaya's Ghostform #94 ($8.05), Bolt Bend #115 ($5.51), Jace, Wielder of Mysteries #54 ($5.28). Together those five rows account for 20.9% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

Find cards

Showing all cards

Find cards

Modeled card expected value rows for this product.
Name	Set	Card #	Rarity	Treatment	Value ($)	Seller fees (pct + txn)	Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift							0.00
Sanity total expected copies / box - all modeled rows							0.00
Gap to 540 modeled card slots / box							0.00

Expected copies / box0.00

Sanity check totals (ignore Sift and bucket toggles)

Model source: data-static/magic/war/models/draft-box.json. The model documents sealed contents as drawn first, then Sift and bucket filters are applied afterward.