Innistrad: Crimson Vow Draft Booster Box EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of Innistrad: Crimson Vow Draft Booster Box using daily generated TCGplayer price snapshots and the backend draft-box model.

Model assumptions & evidence

Draw all 36 fifteen-card boosters and the guaranteed foil Dracula Box Topper before Sift or included-pool scoring. Filtered cards are never rerolled or backfilled.

Every booster contains at least two double-faced cards and an Eternal Night basic land; a traditional foil replaces a common in one-third of packs. Published Booster Fun allocation is included. Within-slot foil weights, the retained 7:1 rare/mythic aggregate, and the topper's 9/17 uncommon proxy are scenario assumptions rather than exact factory odds. The guaranteed topper is included; the separately distributed Buy-a-Box promo, tokens and helper cards are outside this game-card EV. Missing exact selected-source printing-and-finish quotes remain unknown, with incomplete values disclosed as priced-card subtotals.
36 packs / box15 game cards / pack541 modeled card slots / boxBackend Draft Booster model
SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.
Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Prices load from daily generated TCGplayer, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket snapshots. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.
Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Purchase EV

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls
Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: -
Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Pack & Box EV

Expected value summary across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
MetricLowMidHigh
Average pack EV (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Box EV x 36 (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Gross EV per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value and profit summary across all selected boxes.
All boxesLowMidHigh
Gross EV$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after expenses$0.00$0.00$0.00
ROI vs cost---
Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

Innistrad: Crimson Vow Draft Booster Content Snapshot

The calculator retains this product's existing slot model and resolves complete contents before included-pool controls or optional Sift score the result.

Packs
36 packs / box
Cards
15 game cards / pack
Modeled total
541 modeled card slots / box
Rows
Loading

Pack Structure

Each Innistrad: Crimson Vow Draft Booster is modeled with 15 game-card slots.

Uncommons2 cards / pack
Pool: 83 modeled card outcomes.2 uncommons outside guaranteed DFC slots: 2 expected / pack.
Land1 card / pack
Pool: 10 modeled card outcomes.Eternal Night basic land: 1 expected / pack.
Rare / Mythic1 card / pack
Pool: 82 modeled card outcomes.Rare or mythic rare: 1 expected / pack.
Commons outside guaranteed DFC slots after foil replacement8.6667 expected / pack
Pool: 100 modeled card outcomes.Commons outside guaranteed DFC slots after foil replacement: 8.6667 expected / pack.
Guaranteed double-faced common1 card / pack
Pool: 1 modeled card outcome.Guaranteed double-faced common: 1 expected / pack.
Guaranteed double-faced uncommon/rare/mythic1 card / pack
Pool: 1 modeled card outcome.Guaranteed double-faced uncommon/rare/mythic: 1 expected / pack.
Traditional foil replacement0.3333 expected / pack
Pool: 1 modeled card outcome.Traditional foil replacement: 0.3333 expected / pack (33.33% expected per pack).
Box Topper1 / display
Pool: 1 modeled card outcome.Dracula Series Box Topper booster: 0.0278 expected / pack (2.78% expected per pack).

Draw all pack and display slots first, then apply any Sift or filtering logic afterward.

Non-game inserts are not counted toward EV unless the model explicitly lists them.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives Innistrad: Crimson Vow Draft Booster Box

Product profile. This draft booster box resolves 541 card positions across 673 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated October 16, 2026 contains 214 Common, 191 Uncommon, 185 Rare, 63 Mythic Rare, 20 Basic Land. Its largest slot groups are 328 traditional foil, 97 sfc common, 94 sfc rare mythic, 66 sfc uncommon, 27 dfc uncommon. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.

Largest modeled weights. Binding Geist #48 (3.60 expected per draft booster box), Desperate Farmer #104 (3.60 expected per draft booster box), Drogskol Infantry #10 (3.60 expected per draft booster box), Fearful Villager #157 (3.60 expected per draft booster box), Forest (Eternal Night) #276 (3.60 expected per draft booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. Abrade #139, Abraham Van Helsing - Savior of Ollenbock (Dracula Series) #330, Adamant Will #1, Alchemist's Gambit #140, Alluring Suitor (Showcase) #300, Ancient Lumberknot #230, Avabruck Caretaker #187, Forest (Eternal Night) #277, Angelic Quartermaster #2. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 673 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Kessig Flamebreather #164 ($12.51), Reckless Impulse #174 ($5.51), End the Festivities #155 ($4.71), Swamp (Eternal Night) #272 ($4.03), Swamp (Eternal Night) #273 ($3.49). Together those five rows account for 16.1% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

Showing all cards
Modeled card expected value rows for this product.
NameSetCard #RarityTreatmentValue ($)Seller fees (pct + txn)Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift0.00
Expected copies / box0.00