Unstable Booster Box EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of Unstable Booster Box using daily generated TCGplayer price snapshots and the backend draft-box model.

Model assumptions & evidence

This historical model draws all game-card slots first, then applies included-bucket toggles and optional Sift filtering as post-draw scoring filters.

Every premium replaces a common. Twelve research variants retain the original 27:10:1:2 premium-family approximation and combine it with ordinary Contraption run weights. Every pack has two ordinary Contraptions; a foil Contraption adds a third. See the source qualifications below.

36 packs / box15 game cards / pack540 modeled card slots / boxExact weighted variants

SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.

Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

TCG seller type

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Price source for EV

Prices load only from generated same-origin snapshots. TCG Market uses the same-finish TCG Low only when Market is missing; other missing source values remain unavailable. EV applies Sift after the full modeled draw.

Sift

Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Central interval

Simulations

Use Sift (>=) in EV

Purchase EV

Boxes Purchased

Price per box ($)

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls

Loading backend model buckets...

Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Sealed Price / EV

Advertising disclosure: The Expected Value may earn commissions from qualifying purchases made through affiliate links. Programs used by the site include TCGplayer, Mana Pool, the eBay Partner Network, and Amazon Associates. As an Amazon Associate, The Expected Value earns from qualifying purchases.

Marketplace sealed box price compared to the current break-even price/box (mid).
Source	Box price	Break-even price/box (mid)	P/E	Basis
Mana Pool	-	-	-	Unavailable
TCGplayer	-	-	-	Unavailable
eBay	-	-	-	Unavailable
Amazon	-	-	-	Unavailable

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: -

Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Pack & Box EV

Expected value summary across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
Metric	Low	Mid	High
Average pack EV (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Box EV x 36 (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Gross EV per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net proceeds after fees per box (before acquisition cost)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)	$0.00

Purchase EV & Net Proceeds

Purchase expected value and financial summary across all selected boxes.
All boxes	Low	Mid	High
Gross EV	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net proceeds after fees (before acquisition cost)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
ROI (enter cost)	-	-	-

Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

Unstable Booster Box Content Snapshot

Each complete fifteen-game-card pack selects a qualified research variant before sheet draws, controls, or optional Sift scoring.

Packs: 36 packs / box
Cards: 15 game cards / pack
Contraptions: 2 ordinary; possible foil third
Modeled total: 540 modeled card slots / box
Rows: Loading

Pack Structure

Each Unstable Booster Box is modeled with 15 game-card slots.

Common7.675 expected / pack

Eight ordinary commons, or seven when any premium replaces a common; original variation weights retained.

Uncommon3 cards / pack

Original 75-printing allocation retained.

Land sheet1 card / pack

Five basics plus Steamflogger Boss under the retained 121-cell allocation; a foil basic replaces a common.

Rare / mythic1 card / pack

Original 60-printing allocation retained.

Ordinary Contraptions2 cards / pack

Qualified common/uncommon run identities and UC:RU:RC weights 3:1:1; rare-run 2:1 allocation remains a source assumption.

Premium0.325 expected / pack

Retained main foil 10/40, basic foil 1/40, Contraption foil 2/40; every premium replaces a common.

Draw all game-card slots first, then apply any Sift or filtering logic afterward.

Non-game inserts are not counted toward EV unless the model explicitly lists them.

Reconciliation: exact sheet rows total 15 modeled outcomes per pack; generation fails if a variant or displayed total drifts.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives Unstable Booster Box

Product profile. This draft booster box resolves 540 card positions across 536 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated October 16, 2026 contains 194 Common, 180 Uncommon, 122 Rare, 30 Mythic Rare, 10 Basic Land. Its largest slot groups are 217 ust draft box foil normal foil, 82 ust draft box common normal nonfoil, 75 ust draft box uncommon normal nonfoil, 60 ust draft box rare normal nonfoil, 45 ust draft box contraption contraption nonfoil. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.

Largest modeled weights. Forest #216 (7.14 expected per draft booster box), Island #213 (7.14 expected per draft booster box), Mountain #215 (7.14 expected per draft booster box), Plains #212 (7.14 expected per draft booster box), Swamp #214 (7.14 expected per draft booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. "Rumors of My Death . . ." #65, Accessories to Murder (Contraption) #167, Adorable Kitten #1, Aerial Toastmaster #2, Angelic Rocket #139, Applied Aeronautics (Contraption) #168, Steamflogger Boss #93, Amateur Auteur #3. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 536 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Island #213 ($28.99), Swamp #214 ($26.56), Mountain #215 ($22.35), Forest #216 ($19.78), Plains #212 ($15.92). Together those five rows account for 44.0% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

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Modeled card expected value rows for this product.
Name	Set	Card #	Rarity	Treatment	Value ($)	Seller fees (pct + txn)	Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift							0.00
Sanity total expected copies / box - all modeled rows							0.00
Gap to 540 modeled card slots / box							0.00

Expected copies / box0.00

Sanity check totals (ignore Sift and bucket toggles)

Model source: data-static/magic/ust/models/draft-box.json. Twelve research variants preserve two ordinary Contraptions and one ordinary land-sheet outcome; all premiums replace commons. Family frequencies remain 27:10:1:2, with source qualifications above.