Urza's Saga Draft Booster Box EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of Urza's Saga Booster Box using daily generated TCGplayer price snapshots and the backend draft-box model.

Model assumptions & evidence

Each of 36 boosters contains 15 nonfoil game cards: 11 commons, 3 uncommons and 1 rare. Draw all 540 cards before Sift and included-pool scoring; rejected cards are never rerolled or backfilled.

The booster pool contains 330 ordinary numbered printings, with 110 commons, 110 uncommons and 110 rares, all nonfoil. The 20 basic-land printings are outside this booster recipe; nonbasic lands remain eligible. No foil, prerelease promo, topper, token or serialized branch is added. Uniform cards within each rarity and independent draws remain scenario assumptions, not reconstructed factory sequencing, color balancing, duplicate avoidance or box guarantees. Missing selected-source quotes for an exact printing and finish remain unknown; incomplete values are disclosed priced-card subtotals.
36 packs / box15 game cards / pack540 modeled card slots / boxBackend Draft Booster model
SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.
Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Prices load from daily generated TCGplayer, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket snapshots. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.
Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Purchase EV

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls
Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: -
Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Pack & Box EV

Expected value summary across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
MetricLowMidHigh
Average pack EV (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Box EV x 36 (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Gross EV per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value and profit summary across all selected boxes.
All boxesLowMidHigh
Gross EV$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after expenses$0.00$0.00$0.00
ROI vs cost---
Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

Urza's Saga Draft Booster Content Snapshot

The calculator retains this product's existing slot model and resolves complete contents before included-pool controls or optional Sift score the result.

Packs
36 packs / box
Cards
15 game cards / pack
Modeled total
540 modeled card slots / box
Rows
Loading

Pack Structure

Each Urza's Saga Draft Booster is modeled with 15 game-card slots.

Commons11 cards / pack
Pool: 110 modeled card outcomes.Common slots: 11 expected / pack.
Uncommons3 cards / pack
Pool: 110 modeled card outcomes.Uncommon slots: 3 expected / pack.
Rare / Mythic1 card / pack
Pool: 110 modeled card outcomes.Rare slot: 1 expected / pack.

Draw all game-card slots first, then apply any Sift or filtering logic afterward.

Non-game inserts are not counted toward EV unless the model explicitly lists them.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives Urza's Saga Booster Box

Product profile. This draft booster box resolves 540 card positions across 330 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated June 17, 2026 contains 110 Common, 110 Rare, 110 Uncommon. Its largest slot groups are 110 old common, 110 old rare, 110 old uncommon. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.

Largest modeled weights. Acridian #230 (3.60 expected per draft booster box), Angelic Page #4 (3.60 expected per draft booster box), Annul #59 (3.60 expected per draft booster box), Arc Lightning #174 (3.60 expected per draft booster box), Argothian Swine #235 (3.60 expected per draft booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. Absolute Grace #1, Abundance #229, Befoul #116, Absolute Law #2, Angelic Chorus #3, Brilliant Halo #5, Catastrophe #6, Clear #7. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 330 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Gaea's Cradle #321 ($535.67), Serra's Sanctum #325 ($165.60), Yawgmoth's Will #171 ($81.57), Gilded Drake #76 ($66.14), Tolarian Academy #330 ($58.73). Together those five rows account for 61.1% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

Showing all cards
Modeled card expected value rows for this product.
NameSetCard #RarityTreatmentValue ($)Seller fees (pct + txn)Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift0.00
Expected copies / box0.00