Unhinged Booster Box EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of Unhinged Booster Box using daily generated TCGplayer price snapshots and the backend draft-box model.

Model assumptions & evidence

This historical model draws all game-card slots first, then applies included-bucket toggles and optional Sift filtering as post-draw scoring filters.

Five complete pack variants retain the original 9/40 foil aggregate while replacing a common, uncommon, rare or basic land with its matching foil category. City of Ass retains its original foil weight and the existing sync-only exact-product generated-price fallback. Foil frequency and inner weights remain community assumptions, not publisher-certified rates.

36 packs / box15 game cards / pack540 modeled card slots / boxExact weighted variants

SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.

Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

TCG seller type

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Price source for EV

Prices load only from generated same-origin snapshots. Missing selected-source prices remain unavailable; no other source or finish substitutes for them. EV applies Sift after the full modeled draw.

Sift

Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Central interval

Simulations

Use Sift (>=) in EV

Purchase EV

Boxes Purchased

Price per box ($)

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls

Loading backend model buckets...

Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Sealed Price / EV

Advertising disclosure: The Expected Value may earn commissions from qualifying purchases made through affiliate links. Programs used by the site include TCGplayer, Mana Pool, the eBay Partner Network, and Amazon Associates. As an Amazon Associate, The Expected Value earns from qualifying purchases.

Marketplace sealed box price compared to the current break-even price/box (mid).
Source	Box price	Break-even price/box (mid)	P/E	Basis
Mana Pool	-	-	-	Unavailable
TCGplayer	-	-	-	Unavailable
eBay	-	-	-	Unavailable
Amazon	-	-	-	Unavailable

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: -

Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Pack & Box EV

Expected value summary across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
Metric	Low	Mid	High
Average pack EV (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Box EV x 36 (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Gross EV per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net proceeds after fees per box (before acquisition cost)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)	$0.00

Purchase EV & Net Proceeds

Purchase expected value and financial summary across all selected boxes.
All boxes	Low	Mid	High
Gross EV	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net proceeds after fees (before acquisition cost)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
ROI (enter cost)	-	-	-

Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

Unhinged Booster Box Content Snapshot

Each complete fifteen-card pack selects one of five weighted variants before sheet draws, controls, or Sift scoring. The foil replaces its matching rarity; every pack has one basic land across finishes.

Packs: 36 packs / box
Cards: 15 game cards / pack
Modeled total: 540 modeled card slots / box
Rows: Loading

Pack Structure

Each Unhinged Booster Box is modeled with 15 game-card slots.

Common9.87625 expected / pack

Pool: 55 modeled card outcomes.10 commons unless a foil common replaces one.9 commons in the foil-common variant (99/800).

Uncommon2.94375 expected / pack

Pool: 40 modeled card outcomes.3 ordinary uncommons unless a foil uncommon replaces one.2 ordinary uncommons in the foil-uncommon variant (45/800).

Basic land1 across finishes / pack

Pool: 5 modeled card outcomes.The corresponding foil category replaces this ordinary position.At most one foil is drawn under the retained 9/40 scenario.

Rare1 across finishes / pack

Pool: 40 modeled card outcomes.The corresponding foil category replaces this ordinary position.At most one foil is drawn under the retained 9/40 scenario.

Foil replacement0.225 expected / pack

Pool: 141 modeled card outcomes.At most one foil is drawn under the retained 9/40 scenario.City of Ass uses an exact same-product TCGplayer USD foil value if its generated Foil subtype is missing.

Draw all game-card slots first, then apply any Sift or filtering logic afterward.

Non-game inserts are not counted toward EV unless the model explicitly lists them.

Reconciliation: exact sheet rows total 15 modeled outcomes per pack; generation fails if a variant or displayed total drifts.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives Unhinged Booster Box

Product profile. This draft booster box resolves 540 card positions across 281 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated October 16, 2026 contains 110 Common, 81 Rare, 80 Uncommon, 10 Basic Land. Its largest slot groups are 140 unh draft box unhingedfoil normal foil, 55 unh draft box common normal nonfoil, 40 unh draft box raremythic normal nonfoil, 40 unh draft box uncommon normal nonfoil, 5 unh draft box basic normal nonfoil. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.

Largest modeled weights. Forest - Full Art #140 (7.12 expected per draft booster box), Island - Full Art #137 (7.12 expected per draft booster box), Mountain - Full Art #139 (7.12 expected per draft booster box), Plains - Full Art #136 (7.12 expected per draft booster box), Swamp - Full Art #138 (7.12 expected per draft booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. _____ #23, "Ach! Hans, Run!" #116, Artful Looter #25, Atinlay Igpay #1, City of Ass #134, AWOL #2, Bosom Buddy #3, Cardpecker #4. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 280 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Island - Full Art #137 ($86.85), Forest - Full Art #140 ($74.32), Swamp - Full Art #138 ($72.04), Mountain - Full Art #139 ($67.56), Plains - Full Art #136 ($43.43). Together those five rows account for 44.3% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

Find cards

Showing all cards

Find cards

Modeled card expected value rows for this product.
Name	Set	Card #	Rarity	Treatment	Value ($)	Seller fees (pct + txn)	Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift							0.00
Sanity total expected copies / box - all modeled rows							0.00
Gap to 540 modeled card slots / box							0.00

Expected copies / box0.00

Sanity check totals (ignore Sift and bucket toggles)

Model source: data-static/magic/unh/models/draft-box.json. Five complete matching-rarity replacement variants are drawn first. City of Ass #134 keeps its foil-sheet probability and uses an exact same-product TCGplayer USD foil value when needed.