Ultimate Masters Draft Booster Box EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of Ultimate Masters Booster Box using daily generated TCGplayer price snapshots and the backend draft-box model.

Model assumptions & evidence

The full box includes 24 boosters of 15 game cards, one foil per booster, plus one English foil Ultimate Box Topper: 361 game cards. Draw all contents before Sift and included-pool scoring; rejected cards are never rerolled or backfilled.

Each booster has 10 nonfoil commons, 3 nonfoil uncommons, 1 nonfoil rare or mythic rare, and 1 traditional foil. The model retains uniform printings within rarity, a 7:1 main rare-to-mythic split, foil rarity weights 80/24/7/1, and a uniform 40-card display topper pool as explicit scenario assumptions, not manufacturer-certified sheet weights or box guarantees. All 254 main printings are included in both finishes and all 40 Ultimate Box Toppers in foil. The guaranteed topper contributes to baseline EV. Tokens, marketing cards and serialized outcomes are not added. Missing selected-source printing-and-finish quotes remain unknown; incomplete values are disclosed priced-card subtotals.
24 packs / box15 game cards / pack361 modeled card slots / boxBackend Draft Booster model
SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.
Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Prices load from daily generated TCGplayer, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket snapshots. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.
Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Purchase EV

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls
Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Simulated outcome interval: -
Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Pack & Box EV

Expected value summary across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
MetricLowMidHigh
Average pack EV (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Box EV x 24 (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Gross EV per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value and profit summary across all selected boxes.
All boxesLowMidHigh
Gross EV$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after expenses$0.00$0.00$0.00
ROI vs cost---
Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

Ultimate Masters Draft Booster Content Snapshot

The calculator retains this product's existing slot model and resolves complete contents before included-pool controls or optional Sift score the result.

Packs
24 packs / box
Cards
15 game cards / pack
Modeled total
361 modeled card slots / box
Rows
Loading

Pack Structure

Each Ultimate Masters Draft Booster Box is modeled with 15 game-card slots.

Commons10 cards / pack
Pool: 101 modeled card outcomes.Common slots: 10 expected / pack.
Uncommons3 cards / pack
Pool: 80 modeled card outcomes.Uncommon slots: 3 expected / pack.
Rare / Mythic1 card / pack
Pool: 73 modeled card outcomes.Rare/mythic slot: 1 expected / pack.
Premium foil slot1 card / pack
Pool: 254 modeled card outcomes.Premium foil slot: 1 expected / pack.
Box Topper1 / display
Pool: 40 modeled card outcomes.Ultimate Box Topper: 0.0417 expected / pack (4.17% expected per pack).

Draw all game-card slots first, then apply any Sift or filtering logic afterward.

Non-game inserts are not counted toward EV unless the model explicitly lists them.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives Ultimate Masters Booster Box

Product profile. This draft booster box resolves 361 card positions across 548 named outcomes. The current model contains 202 Common, 160 Uncommon, 106 Rare, 80 Mythic Rare. Its largest slot groups are 101 old common, 101 old premium foil common, 80 old premium foil uncommon, 80 old uncommon, 53 old premium foil rare. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.

Largest modeled weights. Aethersnipe #44 (2.38 expected per draft booster box), Akroan Crusader #121 (2.38 expected per draft booster box), Angelic Renewal #10 (2.38 expected per draft booster box), Archaeomancer #45 (2.38 expected per draft booster box), Arena Athlete #123 (2.38 expected per draft booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. All Is Dust #1, Ancestor's Chosen #9, Ancient Tomb (Extended Art Box Topper) #U31, Ancient Tomb #236, Angel of Despair #196, Balefire Dragon #124, Basking Rootwalla #156, Beckon Apparition #211, Artisan of Kozilek #2. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 548 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Ancient Tomb #236 ($53.31), Demonic Tutor #93 ($26.85), Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth #254 ($24.97), Phyrexian Altar #232 ($22.82), Mana Vault #229 ($18.17). Together those five rows account for 30.4% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

Showing all cards
Modeled card expected value rows for this product.
NameSetCard #RarityTreatmentValue ($)Seller fees (pct + txn)Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift0.00
Expected copies / box0.00