Theros Draft Booster Box EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of Theros Booster Box using daily generated TCGplayer price snapshots and the backend draft-box model.

Model assumptions & evidence

This historical model draws all game-card slots first, then applies included-bucket toggles and optional Sift filtering as post-draw scoring filters.

A Theros display contains 36 boosters of 15 game cards. Ordinary packs draw 10 commons, 3 uncommons, a rare or mythic and a basic land. The pinned MTGJSON THS reconstruction adds a traditional foil replacing a common in 22.5% of packs, with all 249 main-set printings eligible in both finishes. This is an explicit community allocation estimate: Wizards later described the older foil aggregate as 1 in 67 cards, approximately 22.5% of packs, but the exact THS inner weights and pack coupling are not manufacturer-certified. Draw all 540 game cards before Sift or included-pool scoring, without rerolls or backfill. Exact selected-source prices are used; missing quotes remain unknown and yield disclosed priced-card subtotals.

36 packs / box15 game cards / pack540 modeled card slots / boxBackend Draft Booster model

SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.

Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

TCG seller type

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Price source for EV

Prices load from daily generated TCGplayer, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket snapshots. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.

Sift

Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Central interval

Simulations

Use Sift (>=) in EV

Purchase EV

Boxes Purchased

Price per box ($)

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls

Loading backend model buckets...

Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Sealed Price / EV

Advertising disclosure: The Expected Value may earn commissions from qualifying purchases made through affiliate links. Programs used by the site include TCGplayer, Mana Pool, the eBay Partner Network, and Amazon Associates. As an Amazon Associate, The Expected Value earns from qualifying purchases.

Marketplace sealed box price compared to the current break-even price/box (mid).
Source	Box price	Break-even price/box (mid)	P/E	Basis
Mana Pool	-	-	-	Unavailable
TCGplayer	-	-	-	Unavailable
eBay	-	-	-	Unavailable
Amazon	-	-	-	Unavailable

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Simulated outcome interval: -

Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Pack & Box EV

Expected value summary across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
Metric	Low	Mid	High
Average pack EV (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Box EV x 36 (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Gross EV per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Profit after fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)	$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value and profit summary across all selected boxes.
All boxes	Low	Mid	High
Gross EV	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Profit after expenses	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
ROI vs cost	-	-	-

Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

Theros Draft Booster Content Snapshot

The calculator retains this product's existing slot model and resolves complete contents before included-pool controls or optional Sift score the result.

Packs: 36 packs / box
Cards: 15 game cards / pack
Modeled total: 540 modeled card slots / box
Rows: Loading

Pack Structure

Each Theros Draft Booster Box is modeled with 15 game-card slots.

Commons10, or 9 when a foil replaces one

101 nonfoil main-set commons.

Uncommons3 per pack

60 nonfoil main-set uncommons, allocated uniformly.

Rare / Mythic1 per pack

53 rares and 15 mythics. The pinned community sheet weights each rare twice each mythic, giving a 106:15 aggregate.

Basic land1 per pack

20 nonfoil main-set basic lands, allocated uniformly. A foil basic land can also appear in the foil replacement slot.

Traditional foil1 in 22.5% of modeled packs

All 249 main-set Normal printings are eligible. The event replaces a common, with printing and rarity weights from the pinned THS community reconstruction.

Draw every 15-card pack and the complete 540-card display before Sift or included-pool scoring. Never reroll or backfill rejected cards. Accessory cards and separate promotional gifts are outside this product.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives Theros Booster Box

Product profile. This draft booster box resolves 540 card positions across 498 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated August 25, 2026 contains 202 Common, 120 Uncommon, 106 Rare, 40 Basic Land, 30 Mythic Rare. Its largest slot groups are 249 ths draft foil, 101 ths draft common, 68 ths draft raremythic, 60 ths draft uncommon, 20 ths draft basic. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.

Largest modeled weights. Agent of Horizons #148 (3.48 expected per draft booster box), Akroan Crusader #111 (3.48 expected per draft booster box), Annul #38 (3.48 expected per draft booster box), Aqueous Form #39 (3.48 expected per draft booster box), Asphodel Wanderer #77 (3.48 expected per draft booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. Abhorrent Overlord #75, Agent of the Fates #76, Akroan Hoplite #185, Baleful Eidolon #78, Forest #246, Island #234, Mountain #243, Swamp #241. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 498 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx #223 ($29.84), Purphoros, God of the Forge #135 ($9.12), Swan Song #65 ($6.56), Whip of Erebos #110 ($5.01), Gray Merchant of Asphodel #89 ($4.81). Together those five rows account for 36.1% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

Find cards

Showing all cards

Find cards

Modeled card expected value rows for this product.
Name	Set	Card #	Rarity	Treatment	Value ($)	Seller fees (pct + txn)	Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift							0.00
Sanity total expected copies / box - all modeled rows							0.00
Gap to 540 modeled card slots / box							0.00

Expected copies / box0.00

Sanity check totals (ignore Sift and bucket toggles)

Model source: data-static/magic/ths/models/draft-box.json. The historical model uses configured rarity-pool slots, keeps the occupied zero-EV slot separate, and does not infer exact print-sheet collation.