Theros Beyond Death Booster Box EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of a regular Theros Beyond Death Booster Box using live TCGplayer market prices. This model targets the standard 36-pack Draft Booster Box product, not the Theros Beyond Death Theme Booster Box.

The calculator uses the THB Draft Booster shell of 15 game cards per pack: 10 commons, 3 uncommons, 1 rare or mythic rare, and 1 full-art Nyx basic land. A foil replacement is also modeled conservatively as an inferred common replacement.

Scope note: Theme Booster exclusives, planeswalker deck cards, buy-a-box promo cards, extended-art cards, and other ancillary rows are excluded from this Draft Booster Box model. THB showcase and borderless variants are also excluded here because a clean official Draft Booster drop table was not found.

36 packs / box 15 cards / pack (game cards) Full-art Nyx basic land in every pack Rare → mythic upgrade modeled at 1 in 8 Foil slot uses inferred rarity weights; foil replaces a common in 1 in 3 packs

Included pools ▶

THB — Main set (nonfoil) THB — Draft foil (inferred rarity weights; replaces a common) THB — Nyx basic land slot (nonfoil)

Sift is a price floor (USD): rows with Value ≥ Sift tint green. EV only uses Sift when the toggle below is enabled.

Conservative scope: this file models the regular THB Draft Booster Box only. Theme Booster exclusives, planeswalker deck cards, buy-a-box promo cards, extended-art cards, and other ancillary or collector-only rows are excluded.

Selling Fees

TCGplayer seller type

Per‑row shows combined pct + txn (txn = 2.5% processing). $0.30/order is added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Price source for EV

Mid and Low pull from TCGCSV (TCGplayer mirror). “Min” chooses the lowest non-null value, and Market falls back to whichever price is available.

Sift

Rows with Value ≥ Sift tint green. EV only uses Sift if toggled on, and it is applied after each pack’s cards are drawn.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Central interval

Simulations

Runs per summary update; higher counts smooth the bands.

Use Sift (≥) in EV

Low/High = central quantiles from Monte Carlo pack openings.

Purchase EV

Boxes Purchased

Price per box ($)

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Pack & Box EV

Pack and box expected value summary across low, mid, and high estimates.
Metric	Low	Mid	High
Pack EV (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Box EV × 36 (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Gross EV per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Profit after fees per box (Purchase ÷ Boxes)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Break‑even price/box (mid)	$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

All boxes	Low	Mid	High
Gross EV	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Profit after expenses	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
ROI vs cost	—	—	—

Boxes: 0 • Price/box: $0.00 • Total cost: $0.00

Sealed Price / EV

Marketplace sealed box price compared to the current break-even price/box (mid).
Source	Box price	Break‑even price/box (mid)	P/E	Basis
Mana Pool	—	—	—	Loading…
TCGplayer	—	—	—	Loading…
eBay	—	—	—	Loading…

How to read this: Think of P/E as “dollars paid for each $1 of expected card value.” 1.00x means the box price and the current mid EV are the same. 1.25x means you are paying $125 for each $100 of expected value. 0.90x means you are paying $90 for each $100 of expected value. Lower is cheaper relative to EV, but EV is only an average estimate, not guaranteed profit.

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: —

Each bar groups simulated box totals after cards are drawn, then Sift is applied to pack hits. X-axis = box value, Y-axis = number of simulations in that range.

Name	Set	Card #	Rarity	Treatment	Value ($)	Seller fees (pct + txn)	Boxes / copy
Total (Expected / box) — included pools & active Sift							0.00
Sanity total (Expected / box) — all modeled rows (game cards)							0.00
Gap to 540 cards/box							0.00

Sanity check totals (ignore Sift & set toggles; exclude non‑game items)