Strixhaven: School of Mages Draft Booster Box EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of Strixhaven: School of Mages Draft Booster Box using daily generated TCGplayer price snapshots and the backend draft-box model.

Model assumptions & evidence

The calculator draws modeled box contents first from the backend slot contributions, then applies included-bucket toggles and optional Sift filtering as post-draw scoring filters.

This English Strixhaven Draft display contains 36 packs of 15 game cards. Each pack has one rare/mythic, one global Mystical Archive, one common/rare/mythic Lesson, three uncommons and nine common positions. A traditional foil replaces one common in 33% of packs; the guaranteed Archive slot is 67% uncommon, 26.4% rare and 6.6% mythic. Reviewed community sheets supply the disclosed Lesson and foil allocations. The five uncommon Lessons belong in the ordinary uncommon pool, and Learn cards remain eligible. Draw all 540 game cards before Sift or user filters, without reroll or backfill.

36 packs / box15 game cards / pack540 modeled card slots / boxBackend Draft Booster model

SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.

Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

TCG seller type

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Price source for EV

Prices load from daily generated TCGplayer, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket snapshots. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.

Sift

Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Central interval

Simulations

Use Sift (>=) in EV

Purchase EV

Boxes Purchased

Price per box ($)

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls

Loading backend model buckets...

Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Sealed Price / EV

Advertising disclosure: The Expected Value may earn commissions from qualifying purchases made through affiliate links. Programs used by the site include TCGplayer, Mana Pool, the eBay Partner Network, and Amazon Associates. As an Amazon Associate, The Expected Value earns from qualifying purchases.

Marketplace sealed box price compared to the current break-even price/box (mid).
Source	Box price	Break-even price/box (mid)	P/E	Basis
Mana Pool	-	-	-	Unavailable
TCGplayer	-	-	-	Unavailable
eBay	-	-	-	Unavailable
Amazon	-	-	-	Unavailable

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: -

Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Pack & Box EV

Expected value summary across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
Metric	Low	Mid	High
Average pack EV (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Box EV x 36 (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Gross EV per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Profit after fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)	$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value and profit summary across all selected boxes.
All boxes	Low	Mid	High
Gross EV	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Profit after expenses	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
ROI vs cost	-	-	-

Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

Strixhaven: School of Mages Draft Booster Content Snapshot

The calculator retains this product's existing slot model and resolves complete contents before included-pool controls or optional Sift score the result.

Packs: 36 packs / box
Cards: 15 game cards / pack
Modeled total: 540 modeled card slots / box
Rows: Loading

Pack Structure

Each Strixhaven: School of Mages Draft Booster is modeled with 15 game-card slots.

Uncommons3 cards / pack

Pool: 80 printings, including five uncommon Lessons.

Rare / Mythic1 card / pack

Pool: 93 printings. Community per-printing rare/mythic weights are 2:1. Nine eligible mythic identities replace their normal frame with borderless one third of the time.

Mystical Archive1 card / pack

Pool: 63 modeled card outcomes.Mystical Archive uncommon: 0.67 expected / pack (67% expected per pack).Mystical Archive rare: 0.264 expected / pack (26.4% expected per pack).Mystical Archive mythic rare: 0.066 expected / pack (6.6% expected per pack).

Commons after foil replacement8.67 expected / pack

Pool: 96 ordinary common printings, including Learn cards.

Lesson slot1 card / pack

Pool: nine commons, five rares and one mythic. Community sheet weights are 137 per common, 18 per rare and 9 for the mythic, total 1332. These are disclosed allocation assumptions.

Traditional foil replacement0.33 expected / pack

Pool: 347 main-set, borderless and global Archive printings. Community foil-sheet weights are assumptions. The WPN rate is 33%; another publisher overview rounds this to one in three.

Draw all pack and display slots first, then apply any Sift or filtering logic afterward.

Non-game inserts are not counted toward EV unless the model explicitly lists them.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives Strixhaven: School of Mages Draft Booster Box

Product profile. This draft booster box resolves 540 card positions across 694 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated October 16, 2026 contains 210 Common, 198 Rare, 196 Uncommon, 90 Mythic Rare. Its largest slot groups are 347 stx foilwithshowcase, 96 stx nonlessoncommon, 93 stx nonlessonraremythic, 80 stx uncommon, 63 stx sta. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.

Largest modeled weights. Elemental Summoning #183 (3.70 expected per draft booster box), Environmental Sciences #1 (3.70 expected per draft booster box), Expanded Anatomy #2 (3.70 expected per draft booster box), Fractal Summoning #187 (3.70 expected per draft booster box), Inkling Summoning #195 (3.70 expected per draft booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. Abundant Harvest (Mystical Archive) #48, Academic Dispute #91, Academic Probation #7, Accomplished Alchemist #119, Adventurous Impulse (Mystical Archive) #49, Ageless Guardian #8, Witherbloom Command #248, Silverquill Command #232. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 694 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Demonic Tutor (Mystical Archive) #27 ($11.75), Teferi's Protection (Mystical Archive) #11 ($7.89), Dragon's Approach #97 ($6.67), Tainted Pact (Mystical Archive) #33 ($5.03), Solve the Equation #54 ($4.94). Together those five rows account for 17.5% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

Find cards

Showing all cards

Find cards

Modeled card expected value rows for this product.
Name	Set	Card #	Rarity	Treatment	Value ($)	Seller fees (pct + txn)	Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift							0.00
Sanity total expected copies / box - all modeled rows							0.00
Gap to 540 modeled card slots / box							0.00

Expected copies / box0.00

Sanity check totals (ignore Sift and bucket toggles)

Model source: data-static/magic/stx/models/draft-box.json. The model documents sealed contents as drawn first, then Sift and bucket filters are applied afterward.