Shadows over Innistrad Draft Booster Box EV Calculator

Inspect a conditional Shadows over Innistrad box scenario using generated exact-printing prices. The actual land/checklist allocation remains unresolved; full-product EV is unverified.

Model assumptions & evidence

Draw every position in the conditional recipe first, then apply included-pool controls and optional Sift without reroll or backfill.

Conditional US recipe: nine commons, three uncommons, one ordinary rare/mythic and one common/uncommon DFC before common replacement. A foil (15/67 scenario) or extra rare/mythic DFC (1/8 scenario) replaces one common; these events are mutually exclusive. C/U DFCs use per-printing 5:2 weights. The final position is provisionally a basic land; its actual checklist allocation is unresolved. See the model disclosures for sheet assumptions and observed Journal variants.
36 packs / box15 positions / pack540 conditional positions / boxBackend Draft Booster model
SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.
Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Prices load from daily generated TCGplayer, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket snapshots. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.
Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Purchase EV

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls
Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Simulated outcome interval: -
Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Conditional Pack & Box Value

Conditional scenario summary across low, mid, and high estimates; full-product EV remains unverified.
MetricLowMidHigh
Conditional pack value (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Conditional box value x 36 (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Conditional gross value per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value and profit summary across all selected boxes.
All boxesLowMidHigh
Gross EV$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after expenses$0.00$0.00$0.00
ROI vs cost---
Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

Shadows over Innistrad Draft Booster Content Snapshot

This conditional scenario resolves its complete positions before post-draw filters. The actual land/checklist allocation remains unresolved, so these values are not verified full-product EV.

Packs
36 packs / box
Cards
15 conditional positions / pack
Modeled total
540 conditional positions / box
Rows
Loading

Pack Structure

The scenario has 15 positions per pack; the unresolved land/checklist position is provisionally a basic land.

Ordinary positions9 commons, 3 uncommons, 1 rare/mythic and 1 common/uncommon DFC before common replacement.
Common replacementA foil (15/67 scenario) or additional rare/mythic DFC (1/8 scenario) replaces one common; these US events are mutually exclusive.
Unresolved land/checklist positionThe conditional scenario uses one basic land. Actual checklist allocation, including the rare checklist accompanying an extra nonfoil rare/mythic DFC, is unresolved.

Draw all 540 conditional positions first, then apply Sift or included-pool filters without reroll or backfill. Checklist outcomes are not modeled as zero-valued cards; their unknown allocation prevents a verified full-product EV.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives Shadows over Innistrad Booster Box

Product profile. This draft booster box resolves 540 card positions across 598 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated August 24, 2026 contains 210 Common, 200 Uncommon, 122 Rare, 36 Mythic Rare, 30 Basic Land. Its largest slot groups are 298 soi foil, 101 soi sfc common, 80 soi sfc uncommon, 71 soi sfc rare mythic, 24 soi dfc common uncommon. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.

Largest modeled weights. Aim High #193 (3.08 expected per draft booster box), Alms of the Vein #98 (3.08 expected per draft booster box), Angelic Purge #3 (3.08 expected per draft booster box), Apothecary Geist #4 (3.08 expected per draft booster box), Bloodmad Vampire #146 (3.08 expected per draft booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. Aberrant Researcher #49, Accursed Witch #97, Altered Ego #241, Archangel Avacyn #5, Behind the Scenes #100, Byway Courier #196, Forest #295, Always Watching #1. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 598 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Cryptolith Rite #200 ($8.03), Diregraf Colossus #107 ($3.80), Eerie Interlude #16 ($3.77), Relentless Dead #131 ($3.44), Open the Armory #32 ($3.43). Together those five rows account for 20.4% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

Showing all cards
Modeled card expected value rows for this product.
NameSetCard #RarityTreatmentValue ($)Seller fees (pct + txn)Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift0.00
Expected copies / box0.00