Streets of New Capenna Draft Booster Box EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of Streets of New Capenna Draft Booster Box using daily generated TCGplayer price snapshots and the backend draft-box model.

Model assumptions & evidence

The calculator draws modeled box contents first from the backend slot contributions, then applies included-bucket toggles and optional Sift filtering as post-draw scoring filters.

English SNC Draft Displays contain 36 fifteen-card packs plus one traditional foil Gala Greeters Box Topper (#450), totaling 541 game cards. The model uses the published 33% common-to-foil replacement, 33% metropolis land slot, and about-10% nonfoil alternate rare/mythic branch. Community Draft sheets supply the remaining printing weights, including common/uncommon alternate treatments; these inner weights and independent draws are assumptions, not certified factory collation. Every foil printing and the exact English topper remains in the full draw when its price is unavailable. Displayed values are incomplete priced-card subtotals if any quote is missing. Draw the complete product before Sift or pool filters, without rerolls or backfill.

36 packs / box15 game cards / pack541 modeled card slots / boxBackend Draft Booster model

SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.

Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

TCG seller type

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Price source for EV

Prices load from daily generated TCGplayer, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket snapshots. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.

Sift

Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Central interval

Simulations

Use Sift (>=) in EV

Purchase EV

Boxes Purchased

Price per box ($)

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls

Loading backend model buckets...

Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Sealed Price / EV

Advertising disclosure: The Expected Value may earn commissions from qualifying purchases made through affiliate links. Programs used by the site include TCGplayer, Mana Pool, the eBay Partner Network, and Amazon Associates. As an Amazon Associate, The Expected Value earns from qualifying purchases.

Marketplace sealed box price compared to the current break-even price/box (mid).
Source	Box price	Break-even price/box (mid)	P/E	Basis
Mana Pool	-	-	-	Unavailable
TCGplayer	-	-	-	Unavailable
eBay	-	-	-	Unavailable
Amazon	-	-	-	Unavailable

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: -

Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Pack & Box EV

Expected value summary across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
Metric	Low	Mid	High
Average pack EV (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Box EV x 36 (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Gross EV per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Profit after fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)	$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value and profit summary across all selected boxes.
All boxes	Low	Mid	High
Gross EV	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Profit after expenses	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
ROI vs cost	-	-	-

Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

Streets of New Capenna Draft Booster Content Snapshot

The reviewed model draws all 541 game cards, including each pack and the English box topper, before included-pool controls or Sift score the result.

Packs: 36 packs / box
Cards: 15 game cards / pack
Modeled total: 541 modeled card slots / box
Rows: Loading

Pack Structure

Each Streets of New Capenna Draft Booster is modeled with 15 game-card slots.

Land1 / pack

20 printings: 33% metropolis and 67% ordinary basic lands.

Commons10, or 9 with a foil replacement

111 normal and eligible alternate printings use disclosed community sheet weights.

Uncommons3 / pack

95 normal and eligible alternate printings use disclosed community sheet weights.

Rare or mythic rare1 / pack

90% normal and about 10% alternate; existing identity-balanced presentation and 7:1 aggregate rarity allocations remain assumptions.

Traditional foil replacement33% of packs

360 exact foil printings; replaces one common.

English Gala Greeters box topper1 / display

Traditional foil #450, exact TCGplayer product 268367; an unavailable quote remains unknown.

Draw all pack and display slots first, then apply any Sift or filtering logic afterward.

Non-game inserts are not counted toward EV unless the model explicitly lists them.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives Streets of New Capenna Draft Booster Box

Product profile. This draft booster box resolves 541 card positions across 721 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated July 18, 2026 contains 222 Common, 193 Rare, 190 Uncommon, 76 Mythic Rare, 40 Basic Land. Its largest slot groups are 360 snc draft foilwithshowcase, 134 snc draft raremythicwithshowcase, 111 snc draft commonwithshowcase, 95 snc draft uncommonwithshowcase, 20 snc draft basic. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.

Largest modeled weights. Antagonize #100 (3.45 expected per draft booster box), Attended Socialite #133 (3.45 expected per draft booster box), Backstreet Bruiser #35 (3.45 expected per draft booster box), Backup Agent #2 (3.45 expected per draft booster box), Big Score #102 (3.45 expected per draft booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. A Little Chat #47, All-Seeing Arbiter (Borderless) #286, An Offer You Can't Refuse #51, Body Dropper #168, Forest (270) (Basic Land), Gala Greeters (English) (Borderless Box Topper) #450, Plains (273) (Basic Land), Plains (272) (Basic Land). Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 720 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Jetmir's Garden #250 ($7.68), Xander's Lounge #260 ($6.22), Raffine's Tower #254 ($6.19), Slip Out the Back #62 ($5.93), Spara's Headquarters #257 ($5.86). Together those five rows account for 16.6% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

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Modeled card expected value rows for this product.
Name	Set	Card #	Rarity	Treatment	Value ($)	Seller fees (pct + txn)	Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift							0.00
Sanity total expected copies / box - all modeled rows							0.00
Gap to 541 modeled card slots / box							0.00

Expected copies / box0.00

Sanity check totals (ignore Sift and bucket toggles)

Model source: data-static/magic/snc/models/draft-box.json. The model documents sealed contents as drawn first, then Sift and bucket filters are applied afterward.