Shadowmoor Draft Booster Box EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of Shadowmoor Booster Box using daily generated TCGplayer price snapshots and the backend draft-box model.

Model assumptions & evidence

This historical model draws all game-card slots first, then applies included-bucket toggles and optional Sift filtering as post-draw scoring filters.

English Shadowmoor displays contain 36 fifteen-card boosters (540 game cards). Packaging prints approximate premium odds of 1:56 cards, modeled as a foil replacing one common in 15/56 packs. Conditional foil rarity weights and uniform within-pool allocation are explicit assumptions. Draw complete packs before Sift or bucket filters, without reroll or backfill.
36 packs / box15 game cards / pack540 modeled card slots / boxBackend Draft Booster model
SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.
Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Prices load from daily generated TCGplayer, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket snapshots. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.
Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Purchase EV

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls
Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: -
Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Pack & Box EV

Expected value summary across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
MetricLowMidHigh
Average pack EV (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Box EV x 36 (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Gross EV per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value and profit summary across all selected boxes.
All boxesLowMidHigh
Gross EV$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after expenses$0.00$0.00$0.00
ROI vs cost---
Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

Shadowmoor Draft Booster Content Snapshot

Complete fifteen-card packs are drawn using the stated premium-rate scenario before included-pool controls or optional Sift score the result.

Packs
36 packs / box
Cards
15 game cards / pack
Modeled total
540 modeled card slots / box
Rows
Loading

Pack Structure

Each Shadowmoor Draft Booster is modeled with 15 game-card slots.

Foil sheet slots0.267857 expected / pack
Pool: 301 modeled card outcomes.Foil sheet slots: 0.267857 expected / pack (26.785714% expected per pack).
Common sheet slots10.732143 expected / pack
Pool: 121 modeled card outcomes.Common sheet slots: 10.732143 expected / pack.
Uncommon sheet slots3 cards / pack
Pool: 80 modeled card outcomes.Uncommon sheet slots: 3 expected / pack.
Rare sheet slots1 card / pack
Pool: 80 modeled card outcomes.Rare sheet slots: 1 expected / pack.

Draw all game-card slots first, then apply any Sift or filtering logic afterward.

Non-game inserts are not counted toward EV unless the model explicitly lists them.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives Shadowmoor Booster Box

Product profile. This draft booster box resolves 540 card positions across 582 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated October 16, 2026 contains 242 Common, 160 Rare, 160 Uncommon, 20 Basic Land. Its largest slot groups are 301 old foil, 121 old common, 80 old rare, 80 old uncommon. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.

Largest modeled weights. Aethertow #136 (3.19 expected per draft booster box), Aphotic Wisps #55 (3.19 expected per draft booster box), Apothecary Initiate #1 (3.19 expected per draft booster box), Ashenmoor Cohort #56 (3.19 expected per draft booster box), Ballynock Cohort #3 (3.19 expected per draft booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. Advice from the Fae #28, Armored Ascension #2, Ashenmoor Liege #181, Barkshell Blessing #224, Barrenton Medic #4, Boon Reflection #5, Goldenglow Moth #6, Greater Auramancy #7. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 582 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Helm of the Ghastlord #166 ($32.31), Painter's Servant #257 ($24.67), Faerie Macabre #66 ($23.60), Greater Auramancy #7 ($17.86), Rite of Consumption #76 ($17.37). Together those five rows account for 19.8% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

Showing all cards
Modeled card expected value rows for this product.
NameSetCard #RarityTreatmentValue ($)Seller fees (pct + txn)Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift0.00
Expected copies / box0.00