Return to Ravnica Draft Booster Box EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of Return to Ravnica Booster Box using daily generated TCGplayer price snapshots and the backend draft-box model.

Model assumptions & evidence

This historical model draws all game-card slots first, then applies included-bucket toggles and optional Sift filtering as post-draw scoring filters.

One Return to Ravnica display contains 36 fifteen-card boosters (540 game cards). The reviewed RTR community recipe uses ten commons, three uncommons, one rare/mythic and one basic land. A modeled 22.5% premium event replaces one common. Guildgates are common-sheet outcomes, not a guaranteed separate slot. Both finishes of all 274 numbered main-set printings are eligible. The pinned MTGJSON RTR Draft recipe supplies community estimates, not publisher-certified factory odds. Its rare/mythic sheet has two copies of each of 53 rares and one of each of 15 mythics. The foil sheet weights each common/basic 3872, uncommon 2541, rare 2016 and mythic 1008. Equal printing weights within each rarity, independent pack/sheet draws with replacement, and at most one foil per pack are modeling assumptions; factory sequencing, color balancing, duplicate prevention and box guarantees are not reconstructed.

36 packs / box15 game cards / pack540 modeled card slots / boxBackend Draft Booster model

SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.

Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

TCG seller type

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Price source for EV

Prices load from daily generated TCGplayer, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket snapshots. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.

Sift

Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Central interval

Simulations

Use Sift (>=) in EV

Purchase EV

Boxes Purchased

Price per box ($)

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls

Loading backend model buckets...

Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Sealed Price / EV

Advertising disclosure: The Expected Value may earn commissions from qualifying purchases made through affiliate links. Programs used by the site include TCGplayer, Mana Pool, the eBay Partner Network, and Amazon Associates. As an Amazon Associate, The Expected Value earns from qualifying purchases.

Marketplace sealed box price compared to the current break-even price/box (mid).
Source	Box price	Break-even price/box (mid)	P/E	Basis
Mana Pool	-	-	-	Unavailable
TCGplayer	-	-	-	Unavailable
eBay	-	-	-	Unavailable
Amazon	-	-	-	Unavailable

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Simulated outcome interval: -

Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Pack & Box EV

Expected value summary across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
Metric	Low	Mid	High
Average pack EV (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Box EV x 36 (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Gross EV per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Profit after fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)	$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value and profit summary across all selected boxes.
All boxes	Low	Mid	High
Gross EV	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Profit after expenses	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
ROI vs cost	-	-	-

Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

Return to Ravnica Draft Booster Content Snapshot

The calculator retains this product's existing slot model and resolves complete contents before included-pool controls or optional Sift score the result.

Packs: 36 packs / box
Cards: 15 game cards / pack
Modeled total: 540 modeled card slots / box
Rows: Loading

Pack Structure

Each Return to Ravnica Draft Booster contains 15 game cards; each display contains 36 packs.

Commons9 or 10 cards / pack

Pool: 101 commons, including the five Guildgates.One common is replaced when a premium foil is drawn.

Uncommons3 cards / pack

Pool: 80 modeled card outcomes.Uncommon slots: 3 expected / pack.

Rare / Mythic1 card / pack

Pool: 53 rares and 15 mythics.Community sheet weights each rare twice and each mythic once (121 total weight).

Basic land1 card / pack

Pool: all 25 numbered basic-land artworks, uniformly weighted.

Premium foil replacement22.5% of packs (community estimate)

All 274 numbered printings; replaces one common and preserves fifteen cards.

Draw all game-card slots first, then apply any Sift or filtering logic afterward.

Non-game inserts are not counted toward EV unless the model explicitly lists them.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives Return to Ravnica Booster Box

Product profile. This draft booster box resolves 540 card positions across 548 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated August 25, 2026 contains 202 Common, 160 Uncommon, 106 Rare, 50 Basic Land, 30 Mythic Rare. Its largest slot groups are 274 rtr foil, 101 rtr common, 80 rtr uncommon, 68 rtr raremythic, 25 rtr basic. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.

Largest modeled weights. Aerial Predation #113 (3.48 expected per draft booster box), Annihilating Fire #85 (3.48 expected per draft booster box), Armory Guard #2 (3.48 expected per draft booster box), Auger Spree #144 (3.48 expected per draft booster box), Avenging Arrow #4 (3.48 expected per draft booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. Abrupt Decay #141, Angel of Serenity #1, Aquus Steed #29, Axebane Guardian #115, Forest #270, Plains #250, Plains #251, Plains #252. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 548 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Cyclonic Rift #35 ($18.14), Steam Vents #247 ($7.19), Sphere of Safety #24 ($6.10), Overgrown Tomb #243 ($5.47), Blood Crypt #238 ($5.33). Together those five rows account for 25.4% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

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Modeled card expected value rows for this product.
Name	Set	Card #	Rarity	Treatment	Value ($)	Seller fees (pct + txn)	Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift							0.00
Sanity total expected copies / box - all modeled rows							0.00
Gap to 540 modeled card slots / box							0.00

Expected copies / box0.00

Sanity check totals (ignore Sift and bucket toggles)

Model source: data-static/magic/rtr/models/draft-box.json. The RTR community recipe draws all fifteen-card packs, including foil common replacement and basic lands. It does not reconstruct factory print-sheet sequencing.