Rise of the Eldrazi Draft Booster Box EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of Rise of the Eldrazi Booster Box using daily generated TCGplayer price snapshots and the backend draft-box model.

Model assumptions & evidence

This historical model draws all game-card slots first, then applies included-bucket toggles and optional Sift filtering as post-draw scoring filters.

Exact printing/finish prices are checked for the selected source at calculation time. Missing quotes remain unknown; full-product results become available when all required quotes are supplied. The Rise of the Eldrazi booster packaging prints approximate premium-card odds of 1:67 cards. This model includes the previously omitted foil outcomes, interpreting that aggregate as 15/67 of fifteen-card packs containing one foil. The ongoing common-replacement rule was published in Purple Reign (2006) and is corroborated by the ROE pack reconstruction: a foil replaces one common, leaving the rare/mythic, three uncommons and basic land intact. Unpublished allocation assumptions: the foil pool uses the ROE community reconstruction, with 60% across 100 commons plus 20 basics, 25% across 60 uncommons, and 15% across 53 rares at double the weight of 15 mythics. Printings within each rarity are uniform. The ordinary rare/mythic slot retains the original approximate 7:1 aggregate assumption and uniform within-rarity allocation. Independent pack draws, replacement within a sheet, and at most one foil per pack are modeled; historical sheet ordering and box guarantees are not asserted. The secondary reconstruction foil frequency is not used in place of the printed 1:67 rate. Draw all 36 complete fifteen-card packs (540 game cards) before Sift or user filters. Rejected cards are never rerolled or backfilled. Tokens and advertising inserts are outside game-card EV. No promotional event cards or accessory inserts are included.
36 packs / box15 game cards / pack540 modeled card slots / boxBackend Draft Booster model
SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.
Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Prices load from daily generated TCGplayer, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket snapshots. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.
Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Purchase EV

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls
Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: -
Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Pack & Box EV

Expected value summary across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
MetricLowMidHigh
Average pack EV (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Box EV x 36 (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Gross EV per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value and profit summary across all selected boxes.
All boxesLowMidHigh
Gross EV$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after expenses$0.00$0.00$0.00
ROI vs cost---
Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

Rise of the Eldrazi Draft Booster Content Snapshot

The calculator uses the reviewed premium-replacement model and resolves complete contents before included-pool controls or optional Sift score the result.

Packs
36 packs / box
Cards
15 game cards / pack
Modeled total
540 modeled card slots / box
Rows
Loading

Pack Structure

Each Rise of the Eldrazi Draft Booster Box is modeled with 15 game-card slots.

Commons9 or 10 cards / pack
Pool: 100 modeled card outcomes.Common slots: 10 minus 15/67 expected / pack after premium replacement.
Uncommons3 cards / pack
Pool: 60 modeled card outcomes.Uncommon slots: 3 expected / pack.
Land1 card / pack
Pool: 20 modeled card outcomes.Basic land slots: 1 expected / pack.
Rare / Mythic1 card / pack
Pool: 68 modeled card outcomes.Rare/mythic slot: 1 expected / pack.
Premium foil0 or 1 card / pack, replacing one common
248 eligible printings; 15/67 expected per pack. Missing exact prices retain physical probability.

Draw all game-card slots first, then apply any Sift or filtering logic afterward.

Non-game inserts are not counted toward EV unless the model explicitly lists them.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives Rise of the Eldrazi Booster Box

Product profile. This draft booster box resolves 540 card positions across 496 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated October 16, 2026 contains 200 Common, 120 Uncommon, 106 Rare, 40 Basic Land, 30 Mythic Rare. Its largest slot groups are 100 old common, 100 old common foil, 60 old uncommon, 60 old uncommon foil, 53 old rare. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.

Largest modeled weights. Ancient Stirrings #174 (3.52 expected per draft booster box), Aura Finesse #54 (3.52 expected per draft booster box), Aura Gnarlid #175 (3.52 expected per draft booster box), Bala Ged Scorpion #95 (3.52 expected per draft booster box), Battle Rampart #135 (3.52 expected per draft booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. Affa Guard Hound #14, Akoum Boulderfoot #134, All Is Dust #1, Angelheart Vial #215, Awakening Zone #176, Battle-Rattle Shaman #136, Bloodrite Invoker #97, Cast Through Time #55, Artisan of Kozilek #2. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 496 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Soul's Attendant #44 ($16.54), Kozilek, Butcher of Truth #6 ($14.95), Ulamog, the Infinite Gyre #12 ($10.58), Not of This World #8 ($9.97), Bear Umbra #177 ($9.34). Together those five rows account for 19.1% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

Showing all cards
Modeled card expected value rows for this product.
NameSetCard #RarityTreatmentValue ($)Seller fees (pct + txn)Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift0.00
Expected copies / box0.00