Ravnica Allegiance Draft Booster Box EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of Ravnica Allegiance Booster Box using daily generated TCGplayer price snapshots and the backend draft-box model.

Model assumptions & evidence

This historical model draws all game-card slots first, then applies included-bucket toggles and optional Sift filtering as post-draw scoring filters.

The display contains 36 fifteen-card boosters (540 game cards). Printed Ravnica Allegiance packaging gives approximate premium-card odds of 1:67 cards, modeled as one foil replacing a common in 15/67 packs. All 259 booster printings are eligible in both finishes. The guaranteed nonfoil Guildgate remains intact. Conditional foil weights and the retained normal 7:1 rare/mythic split are explicit allocation assumptions; draw all contents before Sift or filters.
36 packs / box15 game cards / pack540 modeled card slots / boxBackend Draft Booster model
SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.
Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Prices load from daily generated TCGplayer, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket snapshots. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.
Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Purchase EV

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls
Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Simulated outcome interval: -
Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Pack & Box EV

Expected value summary across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
MetricLowMidHigh
Average pack EV (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Box EV x 36 (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Gross EV per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value and profit summary across all selected boxes.
All boxesLowMidHigh
Gross EV$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after expenses$0.00$0.00$0.00
ROI vs cost---
Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

Ravnica Allegiance Draft Booster Content Snapshot

The calculator retains this product's existing slot model and resolves complete contents before included-pool controls or optional Sift score the result.

Packs
36 packs / box
Cards
15 game cards / pack
Modeled total
540 modeled card slots / box
Rows
Loading

Pack Structure

One display contains 36 fifteen-card boosters (540 game cards), plus non-game inserts.

10 commons, 3 uncommons, 1 rare/mythic and 1 Guildgate per pack
A premium foil replaces one common in 15/67 packs.Printed approximate 1:67 card odds, interpreted as at most one foil per pack.

Foil allocation assumption: 60% common including Guildgates, 25% uncommon, 15% rare/mythic with each rare twice a mythic. Sift is applied after the complete draw.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives Ravnica Allegiance Booster Box

Product profile. This draft booster box resolves 540 card positions across 518 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated October 12, 2026 contains 222 Common, 160 Uncommon, 106 Rare, 30 Mythic Rare. Its largest slot groups are 259 draft foil, 101 draft common, 80 draft uncommon, 68 draft rare mythic, 10 guildgate. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.

Largest modeled weights. Azorius Guildgate #243 (3.60 expected per draft booster box), Azorius Guildgate #244 (3.60 expected per draft booster box), Gruul Guildgate #249 (3.60 expected per draft booster box), Gruul Guildgate #250 (3.60 expected per draft booster box), Orzhov Guildgate #252 (3.60 expected per draft booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. Absorb #151, Act of Treason #91, Aeromunculus #152, Angelic Exaltation #2, Orzhov Guildgate #253, Angel of Grace #1, Archway Angel #3, Arrester's Zeal #4. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 518 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Smothering Tithe #22 ($30.80), Guardian Project #130 ($8.08), Rhythm of the Wild #201 ($7.44), Breeding Pool #246 ($6.04), Blood Crypt #245 ($5.59). Together those five rows account for 32.8% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

Showing all cards
Modeled card expected value rows for this product.
NameSetCard #RarityTreatmentValue ($)Seller fees (pct + txn)Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift0.00
Expected copies / box0.00