Ravnica: City of Guilds Draft Booster Box EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of Ravnica Booster Box using daily generated TCGplayer price snapshots and the backend draft-box model.

Model assumptions & evidence

This historical model draws all game-card slots first, then applies included-bucket toggles and optional Sift filtering as post-draw scoring filters.

Each pack has eleven common positions (including the original twenty basic-land artworks), three uncommon positions and one rare position. Approximate premium-card odds of 1:70 cards are printed on the Ravnica display; normal and foil outcomes are included. Uniform printing and artwork allocation, independent same-rarity foil events and independent draws with replacement are disclosed assumptions. Draw all 540 cards before Sift or user filters, without rerolls.
36 packs / box15 game cards / pack540 modeled card slots / boxBackend Draft Booster model
SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.
Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Prices load from daily generated TCGplayer, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket snapshots. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.
Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Purchase EV

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls
Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Simulated outcome interval: -
Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Pack & Box EV

Expected value summary across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
MetricLowMidHigh
Average pack EV (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Box EV x 36 (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Gross EV per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value and profit summary across all selected boxes.
All boxesLowMidHigh
Gross EV$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after expenses$0.00$0.00$0.00
ROI vs cost---
Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

Ravnica: City of Guilds Draft Booster Content Snapshot

The calculator retains this product's existing slot model and resolves complete contents before included-pool controls or optional Sift score the result.

Packs
36 packs / box
Cards
15 game cards / pack
Modeled total
540 modeled card slots / box
Rows
Loading

Pack Structure

Each Ravnica: City of Guilds booster has 15 game-card positions; a 36-pack display has 540. Premium foils replace same-rarity positions at the printed approximate rate of 1:70 cards.

Commons11 cards / pack
Pool: 130 identities in two finishes.Common slots: 11 expected / pack.
Uncommons3 cards / pack
Pool: 88 identities in two finishes.Uncommon slots: 3 expected / pack.
Rare1 card / pack
Pool: 88 identities in two finishes.Rare slot: 1 expected / pack.

Draw all game-card slots first, then apply any Sift or filtering logic afterward.

Non-game inserts are not counted toward EV unless the model explicitly lists them.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives Ravnica Booster Box

Product profile. This draft booster box resolves 540 card positions across 612 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated October 12, 2026 contains 220 Common, 176 Rare, 176 Uncommon, 40 Basic Land. Its largest slot groups are 130 old common, 130 old common foil, 88 old rare, 88 old rare foil, 88 old uncommon. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.

Largest modeled weights. Barbarian Riftcutter #114 (3.00 expected per draft booster box), Benevolent Ancestor #3 (3.00 expected per draft booster box), Boros Fury-Shield #5 (3.00 expected per draft booster box), Boros Garrison #275 (3.00 expected per draft booster box), Boros Recruit #243 (3.00 expected per draft booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. Agrus Kos, Wojek Veteran #190, Auratouched Mage #1, Autochthon Wurm #191, Bathe in Light #2, Boros Signet #255, Brainspoil #78, Blazing Archon #4, Caregiver #6. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 612 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Elves of Deep Shadow #161 ($19.94), Doubling Season #158 ($16.65), Breath of Fury #116 ($7.44), Dizzy Spell #43 ($7.09), Watery Grave #286 ($6.96). Together those five rows account for 19.5% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

Showing all cards
Modeled card expected value rows for this product.
NameSetCard #RarityTreatmentValue ($)Seller fees (pct + txn)Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift0.00
Expected copies / box0.00