Prophecy Draft Booster Box EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of Prophecy Booster Box using daily generated TCGplayer price snapshots and the backend draft-box model.

Model assumptions & evidence

This historical model draws all game-card slots first, then applies included-bucket toggles and optional Sift filtering as post-draw scoring filters.

The Prophecy display is modeled as 36 fifteen-card packs (540 game cards). The inspected English booster wrapper prints approximate premium odds of 1:100 cards. Retain a 1% foil event per position, same-rarity replacement and uniform within-rarity printing allocation as explicit assumptions; individual and joint collation frequencies are not publisher verified. Every pack resolves eleven common positions, three uncommon positions and one rare position before Sift or user filters.
36 packs / box15 game cards / pack540 modeled card slots / boxBackend Draft Booster model
SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.
Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Prices load from daily generated TCGplayer, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket snapshots. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.
Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Purchase EV

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls
Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: -
Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Pack & Box EV

Expected value summary across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
MetricLowMidHigh
Average pack EV (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Box EV x 36 (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Gross EV per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value and profit summary across all selected boxes.
All boxesLowMidHigh
Gross EV$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after expenses$0.00$0.00$0.00
ROI vs cost---
Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

Prophecy Draft Booster Content Snapshot

The calculator retains this product's existing slot model and resolves complete contents before included-pool controls or optional Sift score the result.

Packs
36 packs / box
Cards
15 game cards / pack
Modeled total
540 modeled card slots / box
Rows
Loading

Pack Structure

Each Prophecy Draft Booster contains 15 game cards; a 36-pack display contains 540. Eleven common positions, three uncommon positions and one rare position resolve before Sift or filters; eligible foils replace their positions.

Commons10.89 expected / pack
Pool: 55 modeled card outcomes.Common slots: 10.89 expected / pack.
Uncommons3 cards / pack
Pool: 88 modeled card outcomes.Uncommon slots: 2.97 expected / pack.Foil replacement uncommon slots: 0.03 expected / pack (3% expected per pack).
Nonfoil rare0.99 expected / pack
Pool: 44 modeled card outcomes.Rare slot: 0.99 expected / pack (99% expected per pack).
Foil replacement common slots0.11 expected / pack
Pool: 55 modeled card outcomes.Foil replacement common slots: 0.11 expected / pack (11% expected per pack).
Foil replacement rare slot0.01 expected / pack
Pool: 44 modeled card outcomes.Foil replacement rare slot: 0.01 expected / pack (1% expected per pack).

Draw all game-card slots first, then apply any Sift or filtering logic afterward.

Non-game inserts are not counted toward EV unless the model explicitly lists them.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives Prophecy Booster Box

Product profile. This draft booster box resolves 540 card positions across 286 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated October 12, 2026 contains 110 Common, 88 Rare, 88 Uncommon. Its largest slot groups are 55 old common, 55 old common foil, 44 old rare, 44 old rare foil, 44 old uncommon. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.

Largest modeled weights. Agent of Shauku #55 (7.13 expected per draft booster box), Alexi's Cloak #29 (7.13 expected per draft booster box), Aura Fracture #2 (7.13 expected per draft booster box), Bog Glider #58 (7.13 expected per draft booster box), Branded Brawlers #84 (7.13 expected per draft booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. Abolish #1, Alexi, Zephyr Mage #28, Avatar of Fury #82, Barbed Field #83, Calming Verse #110, Coastal Hornclaw #31, Avatar of Hope #3, Blessed Wind #4. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 286 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Rhystic Study #45 ($481.50), Foil #34 ($30.96), Entangler #7 ($28.31), Rhystic Study #45 ($28.08), Avatar of Woe #56 ($13.19). Together those five rows account for 76.6% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

Showing all cards
Modeled card expected value rows for this product.
NameSetCard #RarityTreatmentValue ($)Seller fees (pct + txn)Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift0.00
Expected copies / box0.00