Magic Origins Draft Booster EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of Magic Origins Booster Box using live TCGplayer market prices and the backend draft-box model.

This historical model draws all game-card slots first, then applies included-bucket toggles and optional Sift filtering as post-draw scoring filters.

36 packs / box15 game cards / pack540 modeled card slots / boxBackend Draft Booster model

10 Normal nonfoil common slots, 3 Normal nonfoil uncommon slots, and 1 Normal nonfoil rare-or-mythic slot per pack with a documented 7:1 rare-to-mythic split. Each branch is modeled uniformly within the current TCGCSV rarity pool; exact old print-sheet ordering and collation are not inferred. 1 Normal nonfoil basic land slot is modeled separately from the common slots. Premium foil replacements are modeled at 1 per 56 card slots; each foil replaces the same-rarity regular card slot before Sift/filtering, so foil branches share the existing slot totals instead of adding cards. Magic Origins supplemental cards numbered 273-288 are outside Draft Booster contents. The dedicated basic-land slot is modeled with local basic-land rows; checklist inserts remain outside game-card EV. Draw all game-card slots first, then apply any Sift or filtering logic afterward.

SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.

Content Snapshot

Magic Origins Draft Booster Content Snapshot

The calculator retains this product's existing slot model and resolves complete contents before included-pool controls or optional Sift score the result.

Packs: 36 packs / box
Cards: 15 game cards / pack
Modeled total: 540 modeled card slots / box
Rows: Loading

Pack Structure

Each Magic Origins Draft Booster is modeled with 15 game-card slots.

Commons9.8214 expected / pack

Pool: 101 modeled card outcomes.Common slots: 9.8214 expected / pack.

Uncommons3 cards / pack

Pool: 160 modeled card outcomes.Uncommon slots: 2.9464 expected / pack.Foil replacement uncommon slots: 0.0536 expected / pack (5.36% expected per pack).

Land1 card / pack

Pool: 40 modeled card outcomes.Basic land slots: 0.9821 expected / pack (98.21% expected per pack).Foil replacement basic land slots: 0.0179 expected / pack (1.79% expected per pack).

Rare / Mythic0.9821 expected / pack

Pool: 71 modeled card outcomes.Rare/mythic slot: 0.9821 expected / pack (98.21% expected per pack).

Foil replacement common slots0.1786 expected / pack

Pool: 101 modeled card outcomes.Foil replacement common slots: 0.1786 expected / pack (17.86% expected per pack).

Foil replacement rare/mythic slot0.0179 expected / pack

Pool: 71 modeled card outcomes.Foil replacement rare/mythic slot: 0.0179 expected / pack (1.79% expected per pack).

Draw all game-card slots first, then apply any Sift or filtering logic afterward.

Non-game inserts are not counted toward EV unless the model explicitly lists them.

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls

Loading backend model buckets...

Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Selling Fees

TCG seller type

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Price source for EV

Prices load from generated snapshots when available, with TCGCSV price groups as a live fallback. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.

Sift

Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Central interval

Simulations

Use Sift (>=) in EV

Purchase EV

Boxes Purchased

Price per box ($)

Pack & Box EV

Expected value summary across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
Metric	Low	Mid	High
Average pack EV (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Box EV x 36 (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Gross EV per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Profit after fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)	$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value and profit summary across all selected boxes.
All boxes	Low	Mid	High
Gross EV	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Profit after expenses	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
ROI vs cost	-	-	-

Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Sealed Price / EV

Advertising disclosure: As an eBay Partner Network affiliate, The Expected Value may earn from qualifying purchases. Some marketplace links are affiliate links.

Marketplace sealed box price compared to the current break-even price/box (mid).
Source	Box price	Break-even price/box (mid)	P/E	Basis
Mana Pool	-	-	-	Unavailable
TCGplayer	-	-	-	Unavailable
eBay	-	-	-	Unavailable
Amazon	-	-	-	Unavailable

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: -

Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Find cards

Showing all cards

Modeled card expected value rows for this product.
Name	Set	Card #	Rarity	Treatment	Value ($)	Seller fees (pct + txn)	Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift							0.00
Sanity total expected copies / box - all modeled rows							0.00
Gap to 540 modeled card slots / box							0.00

Expected / box0.00

Sanity check totals (ignore Sift and bucket toggles)

Model source: data-static/magic/ori/models/draft-box.json. The historical model uses conservative priced slot branches where source rows and odds are represented, and applies Sift/filtering only after modeled contents are drawn.