Oath of the Gatewatch Draft Booster Box EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of Oath of the Gatewatch Booster Box using daily generated TCGplayer price snapshots and the backend draft-box model.

Model assumptions & evidence

This historical model draws all game-card slots first, then applies included-bucket toggles and optional Sift filtering as post-draw scoring filters.

Conditional priced scenario only: full product EV is unverified. The normal common pool includes both Wastes printings; normal land outcomes use the 25 BFZ full-art lands. Retained premium expectations conflict with the printed approximate 1:67 rate, and premium replacement roles remain unresolved. Values below are conditional; full-product P/E, profit and ROI are unavailable. Sift applies after all 540 scenario cards are drawn.
36 packs / box15 game cards / pack540 modeled card slots / boxBackend Draft Booster model
SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.
Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Prices load from daily generated TCGplayer, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket snapshots. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.
Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Purchase EV

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls
Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Simulated outcome interval: -
Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Conditional pack and display value

Expected value summary across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
MetricLowMidHigh
Conditional pack value (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Conditional display value (36 packs, gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Conditional gross value per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Conditional net value per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value and profit summary across all selected boxes.
All boxesLowMidHigh
Conditional gross value$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Conditional net value$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after expenses$0.00$0.00$0.00
ROI vs cost---
Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

Oath of the Gatewatch Draft Booster Content Snapshot

The calculator retains this product's existing slot model and resolves complete contents before included-pool controls or optional Sift score the result.

Packs
36 packs / box
Cards
15 game cards / pack
Modeled total
540 modeled card slots / box
Rows
Loading

Pack structure and unresolved premium roles

Each of 36 scenario packs draws 15 game cards: ten common positions, three uncommon positions, one rare/mythic position and one land/premium position. Premium bookkeeping is retained only as an unverified scenario; it does not establish factory collation.

The corrected nonfoil common sheet has 70 printings, including both Wastes artworks. The nonfoil basic-land pool contains the 25 full-art BFZ lands numbered 250–274. The prior ordinary-foil and Expedition expectations remain unchanged pending reconciliation with the manufacturer’s printed approximate 1:67 premium rate.

All 540 cards are drawn before Sift or pool filters. Filtering never rerolls or replaces a card. Full-product EV, P/E, profit and ROI remain unavailable; displayed gross and net values are conditional estimates.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives Oath of the Gatewatch Booster Box

Product profile. This draft booster box resolves 540 card positions across 413 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated October 12, 2026 contains 140 Common, 120 Uncommon, 84 Rare, 44 Mythic Rare, 25 Basic Land. Its largest slot groups are 70 old common, 68 old common foil, 60 old uncommon, 60 old uncommon foil, 42 old rare. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.

Largest modeled weights. Abstruse Interference #40 (5.05 expected per draft booster box), Affa Protector #14 (5.05 expected per draft booster box), Akoum Flameseeker #101 (5.05 expected per draft booster box), Ancient Crab #50 (5.05 expected per draft booster box), Blinding Drone #41 (5.05 expected per draft booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. Allied Reinforcements #15, Ancient Tomb (Zendikar Expedition) #36, Ayli, Eternal Pilgrim #151, Baloth Null #152, Bearer of Silence #67, Bone Saw #161, Boulder Salvo #102, Chandra, Flamecaller #104, Mystic Gate (Zendikar Expedition) #26. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 388 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Ancient Tomb (Zendikar Expedition) #36 ($4.68), Wastes - Full Art #183 ($4.19), Wastes - Full Art #184 ($4.09), Thought-Knot Seer #9 ($3.54), Stoneforge Masterwork #166 ($2.53). Together those five rows account for 16.3% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

Showing all cards
Modeled card expected value rows for this product.
NameSetCard #RarityTreatmentValue ($)Seller fees (pct + txn)Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift0.00
Expected copies / box0.00