New Phyrexia Draft Booster Box EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of New Phyrexia Booster Box using daily generated TCGplayer price snapshots and the backend draft-box model.

Model assumptions & evidence

This historical model draws all game-card slots first, then applies included-bucket toggles and optional Sift filtering as post-draw scoring filters.

Prices use each exact printing and finish. Missing quotes are identified by current price coverage; they do not change physical probabilities or permanently disable an otherwise supported printing. The display draws 36 fifteen-card packs (540 game cards): ten commons, three uncommons, one rare/mythic and one NPH basic land before premium replacement. The ten NPH basic printings 166-175 replace the incorrect twenty Scars of Mirrodin printings. English NPH blister packaging prints approximate premium-card odds of 1:67 cards, modeled as one foil replacing one common in 15/67 packs. All 175 original NPH printings are eligible in both finishes.
36 packs / box15 game cards / pack540 modeled card slots / boxBackend Draft Booster model
SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.
Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Prices load from daily generated TCGplayer, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket snapshots. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.
Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Purchase EV

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls
Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Simulated outcome interval: -
Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Pack & Box EV

Expected value summary across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
MetricLowMidHigh
Average pack EV (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Box EV x 36 (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Gross EV per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value and profit summary across all selected boxes.
All boxesLowMidHigh
Gross EV$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after expenses$0.00$0.00$0.00
ROI vs cost---
Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

New Phyrexia Draft Booster Content Snapshot

The calculator uses the reviewed NPH slot model and resolves complete contents before included-pool controls or optional Sift score the result.

Packs
36 packs / box
Cards
15 game cards / pack
Modeled total
540 modeled card slots / box
Rows
Loading

Pack Structure

Each New Phyrexia Draft Booster Box contains 36 fifteen-card packs (540 game cards), including the NPH basic-land slot and ordinary premium common replacement.

Commons10 cards / pack
Pool: 60 modeled card outcomes.Common slots: 10 expected / pack.
Uncommons3 cards / pack
Pool: 60 modeled card outcomes.Uncommon slots: 3 expected / pack.
Land1 card / pack
Pool: 20 modeled card outcomes.Basic land slots: 1 expected / pack.
Rare / Mythic1 card / pack
Pool: 45 modeled card outcomes.Rare/mythic slot: 1 expected / pack.

Draw all game-card slots first, then apply any Sift or filtering logic afterward.

Non-game inserts are not counted toward EV unless the model explicitly lists them.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives New Phyrexia Booster Box

Product profile. This draft booster box resolves 540 card positions across 350 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated October 16, 2026 contains 120 Common, 120 Uncommon, 70 Rare, 20 Basic Land, 20 Mythic Rare. Its largest slot groups are 175 old foil, 60 old common, 60 old uncommon, 35 old rare, 10 old basic. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.

Largest modeled weights. Apostle's Blessing #2 (5.87 expected per draft booster box), Artillerize #79 (5.87 expected per draft booster box), Blighted Agent #29 (5.87 expected per draft booster box), Blind Zealot #52 (5.87 expected per draft booster box), Blinding Souleater #131 (5.87 expected per draft booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. Act of Aggression #78, Alloy Myr #129, Batterskull #130, Birthing Pod #104, Chained Throatseeker #30, Forest #174, Karn Liberated #1, Auriok Survivors #3. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 350 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Gitaxian Probe #35 ($34.61), Triumph of the Hordes #123 ($22.41), Mindcrank #144 ($20.14), Suture Priest #25 ($17.95), Unwinding Clock #164 ($17.73). Together those five rows account for 23.1% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

Showing all cards
Modeled card expected value rows for this product.
NameSetCard #RarityTreatmentValue ($)Seller fees (pct + txn)Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift0.00
Expected copies / box0.00