Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty Draft Booster Box EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty Draft Booster Box using daily generated TCGplayer price snapshots and the backend draft-box model.

Model assumptions & evidence

The calculator draws modeled box contents first from the backend slot contributions, then applies included-bucket toggles and optional Sift filtering as post-draw scoring filters.

Full-product EV is unverified. Nonfoil Ninja/Samurai common/uncommon insertion frequencies and the normal-versus-alternate rare/mythic allocation remain unresolved. The published approximately 10% of packs with an alternate rare/mythic does not specify finish, so it is not treated as a separate 10% nonfoil branch. Displayed values are conditional scenario subtotals, not complete product EV. 36 Draft Boosters of 15 game cards: one rare/mythic, one double-faced common/uncommon, three other uncommons, nine other commons, and one land. A traditional foil replaces a common in one third of packs. Nonfoil land is one-third ukiyo-e, with the remaining two-thirds allocated uniformly among ten regular basics and ten common dual lands as an explicit within-bucket assumption. The ten common dual lands occupy the land slot, not the single-faced common slot. Tokens, ads and helper inserts are outside game-card EV. The conditional nonfoil scenario retains regular treatments only. Normal rare/mythic uses the retained 7:1 aggregate; uniform within rarity. The guaranteed double-faced C/U bucket is uniform across its 14 cards; other C/U pools exclude those cards. Within the one-third foil bucket, 302 base printings are uniform and each subject is split equally across its eligible regular and alternate printings, respecting proportional division among multiple treatments. Factory foil rarity and treatment probabilities are not asserted. Independent packs and with-replacement sheets are assumptions; 33% is interpreted as one third, matching the original model. Construct the full540card scenario before Sift and filters; never reroll or backfill rejected cards. Eligible foil printings are NEO1-416. Collector-only extended art, etched and neon ink, Commander cards and promos are outside this Draft product. Unknown product allocation is not a zero-value or chase exclusion.
36 packs / box15 game cards / pack540 modeled card slots / boxBackend Draft Booster model
SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.

Full-product EV is unverified.

Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Prices load from daily generated TCGplayer, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket snapshots. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.
Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Purchase EV

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls
Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: -
Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Pack & Box EV

Conditional scenario only; full-product EV is unverified. Low, Mid and High come from the same simulation.
MetricLowMidHigh
Conditional pack value (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Conditional box value (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Conditional gross per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value and profit summary across all selected boxes.
All boxesLowMidHigh
Gross EV$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after expenses$0.00$0.00$0.00
ROI vs cost---
Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty Draft Booster Content Snapshot

The calculator retains this product's existing slot model and resolves complete contents before included-pool controls or optional Sift score the result.

Packs
36 packs / box
Cards
15 game cards / pack
Modeled total
540 modeled card slots / box
Rows
Loading

Pack Structure

Each Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty Draft Booster is modeled with 15 game-card slots.

Uncommons3 cards / pack
Pool: 80 single-faced uncommon outcomes.3 uncommons: 3 expected / pack.
Land1 card / pack
Pool: 30 land printings: ten basic, ten common dual and ten ukiyo-e.Regular basic or common dual land: 0.6667 expected / pack, uniform across20printings assumed.Ukiyo-e land: 0.3333 expected / pack (33.33% expected per pack).
Rare / Mythic1 card / pack
Pool: 77 modeled card outcomes.Rare or mythic rare: 1 expected / pack.
Commons after foil replacement8.6667 expected / pack
Pool: 101 single-faced common outcomes.Commons after foil replacement: 8.6667 expected / pack.
Double-faced common or uncommon1 card / pack
Pool: 14 double-faced common/uncommon outcomes.Double-faced common or uncommon: 1 expected / pack.
Traditional foil replacement0.3333 expected / pack
Pool: 416 eligible foil printings under the disclosed conditional allocation.Traditional foil replacement: 0.3333 expected / pack (33.33% expected per pack).

Draw all pack and display slots first, then apply any Sift or filtering logic afterward.

Non-game inserts are not counted toward EV unless the model explicitly lists them.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty Draft Booster Box

Product profile. This draft booster box resolves 540 card positions across 718 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated October 12, 2026 contains 231 Common, 191 Uncommon, 177 Rare, 60 Basic Land, 59 Mythic Rare. Its largest slot groups are 416 traditional foil, 101 single common, 80 single uncommon, 77 rare mythic, 30 land. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.

Largest modeled weights. Akki Ember-Keeper #130 (3.09 expected per draft booster box), Akki Ronin #131 (3.09 expected per draft booster box), Akki War Paint #132 (3.09 expected per draft booster box), Ambitious Assault #133 (3.09 expected per draft booster box), Ancestral Katana #1 (3.09 expected per draft booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. Acquisition Octopus #44, Anchor to Reality #45, Ao, the Dawn Sky #2, Armguard Familiar #46, Azusa's Many Journeys #172, Bloodfell Caves #264, Ao, the Dawn Sky (Borderless) #406, Banishing Slash #3. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 718 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Boseiju, Who Endures #266 ($26.46), Tamiyo's Safekeeping #211 ($17.02), Otawara, Soaring City #271 ($15.52), Takenuma, Abandoned Mire #278 ($5.81), Swamp (298) - JP Full Art (Basic Land) ($5.57). Together those five rows account for 24.7% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

Showing all cards
Modeled card expected value rows for this product.
NameSetCard #RarityTreatmentValue ($)Seller fees (pct + txn)Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift0.00
Expected copies / box0.00