Mirrodin Draft Booster Box EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of Mirrodin Booster Box using daily generated TCGplayer price snapshots and the backend draft-box model.

Model assumptions & evidence

This historical model draws all game-card slots first, then applies included-bucket toggles and optional Sift filtering as post-draw scoring filters.

Each display contains 36 fifteen-card packs (540 game cards). The English wrapper states approximate premium odds of 1:70 cards. Eight retained sheet variants now resolve complete packs before Sift or filters; all 592 printing expectations are unchanged. Uniform printing weights, rarity-specific foil allocation and independent pack variants remain explicit model assumptions, not verified factory sequencing.
36 packs / box15 game cards / pack540 modeled card slots / boxBackend Draft Booster model
SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.
Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Prices load from daily generated TCGplayer, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket snapshots. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.
Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Purchase EV

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls
Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: -
Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Pack & Box EV

Expected value summary across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
MetricLowMidHigh
Average pack EV (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Box EV x 36 (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Gross EV per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value and profit summary across all selected boxes.
All boxesLowMidHigh
Gross EV$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after expenses$0.00$0.00$0.00
ROI vs cost---
Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

Mirrodin Draft Booster Content Snapshot

The calculator retains this product's existing slot model and resolves complete contents before included-pool controls or optional Sift score the result.

Packs
36 packs / box
Cards
15 game cards / pack
Modeled total
540 modeled card slots / box
Rows
Loading

Pack Structure

Each Mirrodin Draft Booster contains 15 game cards; a box contains 36 packs, totaling 540. Eleven common positions, three uncommon positions and one rare position are resolved with same-rarity premium replacements. The eight retained variants preserve the original sheet probabilities and full physical count.

Foil uncommon sheet slots0.0429 expected / pack
Pool: 88 modeled card outcomes.Foil uncommon sheet slots: 0.0429 expected / pack (4.29% expected per pack).
Uncommon sheet slots2.9571 expected / pack
Pool: 88 modeled card outcomes.Uncommon sheet slots: 2.9571 expected / pack.
Foil common or basic sheet slots0.1571 expected / pack
Pool: 130 modeled card outcomes.Foil common or basic sheet slots: 0.1571 expected / pack (15.71% expected per pack).
Common sheet slots10.8429 expected / pack
Pool: 110 modeled card outcomes.Common sheet slots: 10.8429 expected / pack.
Foil rare sheet slots0.0143 expected / pack
Pool: 88 modeled card outcomes.Foil rare sheet slots: 0.0143 expected / pack (1.43% expected per pack).
Rare sheet slots0.9857 expected / pack
Pool: 88 modeled card outcomes.Rare sheet slots: 0.9857 expected / pack (98.57% expected per pack).

Draw all game-card slots first, then apply any Sift or filtering logic afterward.

Non-game inserts are not counted toward EV unless the model explicitly lists them.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives Mirrodin Booster Box

Product profile. This draft booster box resolves 540 card positions across 592 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated October 12, 2026 contains 220 Common, 176 Rare, 176 Uncommon, 20 Basic Land. Its largest slot groups are 130 old foil common or basic, 110 old common, 88 old foil rare, 88 old foil uncommon, 88 old rare. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.

Largest modeled weights. Aether Spellbomb #141 (3.55 expected per draft booster box), Alpha Myr #142 (3.55 expected per draft booster box), Ancient Den #278 (3.55 expected per draft booster box), Annul #29 (3.55 expected per draft booster box), Arrest #2 (3.55 expected per draft booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. Altar of Shadows #143, Altar's Light #1, Arc-Slogger #85, Assert Authority #30, Auriok Transfixer #5, Awe Strike #6, Auriok Bladewarden #3, Auriok Steelshaper #4. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 592 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Chrome Mox #152 ($70.35), Seething Song #104 ($50.67), Krark-Clan Shaman #98 ($30.91), Vault of Whispers #286 ($19.98), Isochron Scepter #188 ($16.54). Together those five rows account for 34.2% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

Showing all cards
Modeled card expected value rows for this product.
NameSetCard #RarityTreatmentValue ($)Seller fees (pct + txn)Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift0.00
Expected copies / box0.00