March of the Machine Draft Booster Display EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of March of the Machine Draft Booster Display using daily generated TCGplayer price snapshots and the backend draft-box model.

Model assumptions & evidence

The calculator draws modeled box contents first from the backend slot contributions, then applies included-bucket toggles and optional Sift filtering as post-draw scoring filters.

Full-product EV is unavailable. Three guaranteed ordinary roles (Battle, non-battle double-faced, and single-faced U/R/M) require their joint rarity and treatment allocation. Published contents guarantee a rare/mythic and identify nonfoil planar Booster Fun in about 8% and borderless planeswalkers in less than 1% of packs; these constraints do not establish the joint weights. No precise borderless residual or factory correlation is invented. Displayed priced numbers are conditional subtotals, not complete product EV.
36 packs / box 15 game cards / pack 540 modeled card slots / box Backend Draft Booster model
SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.
Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Prices load from daily generated TCGplayer, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket snapshots. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.
Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Purchase EV

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls
Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: -
Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Known Pack & Box Subtotal

Conditional priced subtotal across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
MetricLowMidHigh
Known pack subtotal (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Known box subtotal x 36 (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Known gross subtotal per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value and profit summary across all selected boxes.
All boxesLowMidHigh
Known gross subtotal$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after expenses$0.00$0.00$0.00
ROI vs cost---
Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

March of the Machine Draft Booster Content Snapshot

The calculator retains this product's existing slot model and resolves complete contents before included-pool controls or optional Sift score the result.

Packs
36 packs / box
Cards
15 game cards / pack
Modeled total
540 modeled card slots / box
Rows
Loading

Pack Structure

Each of 36 packs contains 15 game cards, totaling 540 positions. The three unresolved ordinary roles retain their physical positions and unknown value.

  • 8 single-faced commons; a traditional foil replaces one in one-third of packs
  • 2 single-faced uncommons
  • 1 Multiverse Legend
  • 1 Battle U/R/M, 1 non-battle double-faced C/U/R/M, and 1 single-faced U/R/M role; joint rarity allocation remains unresolved
  • 1 land: 50% common dual, 33% full-art basic, 17% regular basic

Release-specific model analysis

What drives March of the Machine Draft Booster Display

Product profile. This draft booster box resolves 540 card positions across 631 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated October 12, 2026 contains 227 Common, 170 Uncommon, 138 Rare, 63 Mythic Rare, 30 Basic Land, 3 Unresolved. Its largest slot groups are 387 traditional foil, 101 single common, 65 multiverse legend, 50 single uncommon, 25 land. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.

Largest modeled weights. Unresolved Battle U/R/M allocation (Unresolved ordinary role) #unresolved-battle (36.0 expected per draft booster box), Unresolved Non-battle double-faced C/U/R/M allocation (Unresolved ordinary role) #unresolved-nonbattle_dfc (36.0 expected per draft booster box), Unresolved Single-faced U/R/M allocation (Unresolved ordinary role) #unresolved-single_role (36.0 expected per draft booster box), Aerial Boost #2 (2.73 expected per draft booster box), Akki Scrapchomper #130 (2.73 expected per draft booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. Aegar, the Freezing Flame #31, Alabaster Host Intercessor #3, Anafenza, Kin-Tree Spirit #1, Artistic Refusal #46, Bloodfell Caves #267, Invasion of Ravnica #1, Alabaster Host Sanctifier #4, Angelic Intervention #5. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 628 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Wrenn's Resolve #173 ($6.67), Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer #21 ($4.50), Kami of Whispered Hopes #196 ($4.44), Corrupted Conviction #98 ($3.83), Ayara, First of Locthwain #13 ($3.27). Together those five rows account for 14.7% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

Showing all cards
Modeled card expected value rows for this product.
NameSetCard #RarityTreatmentValue ($)Seller fees (pct + txn)Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift0.00
Expected copies / box0.00