Mercadian Masques Draft Booster Box EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of Mercadian Masques Booster Box using daily generated TCGplayer price snapshots and the backend draft-box model.

Model assumptions & evidence

This historical model draws all game-card slots first, then applies included-bucket toggles and optional Sift filtering as post-draw scoring filters.

Full-product EV is unavailable pending verification of Mercadian Masques premium-foil frequencies. The retained 1:100 card-position foil scenario is conditional: inspected manufacturer packaging confirms 36 fifteen-card packs but does not establish foil odds, and historical secondary accounts conflict. Every draw now resolves all 540 positions before Sift or filters. Original printing expectations remain unchanged.
36 packs / box15 game cards / pack540 modeled card slots / boxBackend Draft Booster model
SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.
Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Prices load from daily generated TCGplayer, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket snapshots. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.
Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Purchase EV

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls
Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: -
Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Pack & Box EV

Expected value summary across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
MetricLowMidHigh
Average pack EV (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Box EV x 36 (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Gross EV per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value and profit summary across all selected boxes.
All boxesLowMidHigh
Gross EV$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after expenses$0.00$0.00$0.00
ROI vs cost---
Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

Mercadian Masques Draft Booster Content Snapshot

The calculator retains this product's existing slot model and resolves complete contents before included-pool controls or optional Sift score the result.

Packs
36 packs / box
Cards
15 game cards / pack
Modeled total
540 modeled card slots / box
Rows
Loading

Pack Structure

Each Mercadian Masques Draft Booster contains 15 game cards; one box contains 36 packs, totaling 540. The conditional model draws eleven common positions, three uncommon positions and one rare position. A foil replaces its eligible position. The 1% per-position premium rate, same-rarity replacement and uniform pools are retained assumptions awaiting verification; these are not established manufacturer odds.

Commons10.89 expected / pack
Pool: 110 modeled card outcomes.Common slots: 10.89 expected / pack.
Uncommons3 cards / pack
Pool: 220 modeled card outcomes.Uncommon slots: 2.97 expected / pack.Foil replacement uncommon slots: 0.03 expected / pack (3% expected per pack).
Rare / Mythic0.99 expected / pack
Pool: 110 modeled card outcomes.Rare slot: 0.99 expected / pack (99% expected per pack).
Foil replacement common slots0.11 expected / pack
Pool: 130 modeled card outcomes.Foil replacement common slots: 0.11 expected / pack (11% expected per pack).
Foil replacement rare slot0.01 expected / pack
Pool: 110 modeled card outcomes.Foil replacement rare slot: 0.01 expected / pack (1% expected per pack).

Draw all game-card slots first, then apply any Sift or filtering logic afterward.

Non-game inserts are not counted toward EV unless the model explicitly lists them.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives Mercadian Masques Booster Box

Product profile. This draft booster box resolves 540 card positions across 680 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated October 12, 2026 contains 220 Common, 220 Rare, 220 Uncommon, 20 Basic Land. Its largest slot groups are 130 old common foil, 110 old common, 110 old rare, 110 old rare foil, 110 old uncommon. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.

Largest modeled weights. Alabaster Wall #2 (3.56 expected per draft booster box), Alley Grifters #115 (3.56 expected per draft booster box), Ancestral Mask #229 (3.56 expected per draft booster box), Balloon Peddler #59 (3.56 expected per draft booster box), Battle Rampart #173 (3.56 expected per draft booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. Aerial Caravan #58, Afterlife #1, Armistice #3, Arms Dealer #172, Blaster Mage #175, Blockade Runner #60, Arrest #4, Ballista Squad #5. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 680 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Rishadan Port #324 ($35.50), Snuff Out #162 ($25.95), Sandstone Needle #326 ($23.13), Brainstorm #61 ($21.28), Dark Ritual #129 ($18.35). Together those five rows account for 20.4% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

Showing all cards
Modeled card expected value rows for this product.
NameSetCard #RarityTreatmentValue ($)Seller fees (pct + txn)Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift0.00
Expected copies / box0.00