Modern Masters Draft Booster Box EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of Modern Masters Booster Box using daily generated TCGplayer price snapshots and the backend draft-box model.

Model assumptions & evidence

This historical model draws all game-card slots first, then applies included-bucket toggles and optional Sift filtering as post-draw scoring filters.

Modern Masters (2013) contains 24 fifteen-card boosters per display: ten nonfoil commons, three nonfoil uncommons, one nonfoil rare or mythic rare, and one guaranteed traditional foil of any rarity. This is 360 game cards; no basic-land slot, box topper, tokens or advertising inserts contribute to EV. The retained nonfoil rare/mythic split of 7:1 and foil rarity weights common:uncommon:rare:mythic = 80:24:7:1 are modeling assumptions, not publisher-confirmed Modern Masters sheet frequencies. Printings are uniform within each rarity, with independent draws and no inferred factory sheet order. The publisher confirms the guaranteed foil slot and the 101 common, 60 uncommon, 53 rare and 15 mythic membership counts.
24 packs / box15 game cards / pack360 modeled card slots / boxBackend Draft Booster model
SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.
Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Prices load from daily generated TCGplayer, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket snapshots. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.
Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Purchase EV

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls
Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Simulated outcome interval: -
Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Pack & Box EV

Expected value summary across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
MetricLowMidHigh
Average pack EV (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Box EV x 24 (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Gross EV per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value and profit summary across all selected boxes.
All boxesLowMidHigh
Gross EV$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after expenses$0.00$0.00$0.00
ROI vs cost---
Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

Modern Masters Draft Booster Content Snapshot

The calculator retains this product's existing slot model and resolves complete contents before included-pool controls or optional Sift score the result.

Packs
24 packs / box
Cards
15 game cards / pack
Modeled total
360 modeled card slots / box
Rows
Loading

Pack Structure

Each Modern Masters (2013) display contains 24 fifteen-card boosters: 360 game cards. Each pack has ten commons, three uncommons, one rare or mythic, and one guaranteed traditional foil.

Commons10 cards / pack
Pool: 101 modeled card outcomes.Common slots: 10 expected / pack.
Uncommons3 cards / pack
Pool: 60 modeled card outcomes.Uncommon slots: 3 expected / pack.
Rare / Mythic1 card / pack
Pool: 68 modeled card outcomes.Rare/mythic slot: 1 expected / pack.
Premium foil slot1 card / pack
Pool: 229 modeled card outcomes.Premium foil slot: 1 expected / pack.

Draw all game-card slots first, then apply any Sift or filtering logic afterward.

Non-game inserts are not counted toward EV unless the model explicitly lists them.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives Modern Masters Booster Box

Product profile. This draft booster box resolves 360 card positions across 458 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated August 25, 2026 contains 202 Common, 120 Uncommon, 106 Rare, 30 Mythic Rare. Its largest slot groups are 101 old common, 101 old premium foil common, 60 old premium foil uncommon, 60 old uncommon, 53 old premium foil rare. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.

Largest modeled weights. Absorb Vis #71 (2.38 expected per draft booster box), Aether Spellbomb #196 (2.38 expected per draft booster box), Aethersnipe #36 (2.38 expected per draft booster box), Amrou Scout #2 (2.38 expected per draft booster box), Amrou Seekers #3 (2.38 expected per draft booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. Academy Ruins #219, Adarkar Valkyrie #1, Arcbound Stinger #199, Arcbound Wanderer #200, Auntie's Snitch #72, Careful Consideration #37, Dark Confidant #75, Elspeth, Knight-Errant #13, Angel's Grace #4. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 458 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Faerie Macabre #86 ($14.57), Doubling Season #141 ($14.36), Spellstutter Sprite #65 ($12.59), Paradise Mantle #211 ($11.32), Sword of Fire and Ice #216 ($10.06). Together those five rows account for 17.3% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

Showing all cards
Modeled card expected value rows for this product.
NameSetCard #RarityTreatmentValue ($)Seller fees (pct + txn)Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift0.00
Expected copies / box0.00