Core Set 2021 Draft Booster Box EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of Core Set 2021 Booster Box using daily generated TCGplayer price snapshots and the backend draft-box model.

Model assumptions & evidence

This historical model draws all game-card slots first, then applies included-bucket toggles and optional Sift filtering as post-draw scoring filters.

Verified corrections use the published one-third foil event replacing a common, one-seventh showcase basic-land event, and one-thirty-fifth foil showcase/borderless event inside the foil slot. All four regular Teferi artworks are included. Every pack draws fifteen game cards; thirty-six packs give 540 cards before Sift and user filters, without rerolls or backfills. Allocation assumptions: the four normal Teferi arts split the prior single-name weight equally in each finish. Showcase lands are uniform across five printings; the remaining land outcomes retain uniform allocation over fifteen basics and ten gainlands. Foil Booster Fun is uniform over the 41 publisher-listed eligible printings; the remaining normal foil mass retains original conditional rarity proportions. The original 7:1 ordinary rare/mythic split is retained. Independent draws and at most one foil per pack are modeled, not factory sheet order or box guarantees. Buy-a-Box, Planeswalker Deck and extended-art exclusives are excluded.

36 packs / box15 game cards / pack540 modeled card slots / boxBackend Draft Booster model

SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.

Verified corrections use the published one-third foil event replacing a common, one-seventh showcase basic-land event, and one-thirty-fifth foil showcase/borderless event inside the foil slot.

Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

TCG seller type

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Price source for EV

Prices load from daily generated TCGplayer, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket snapshots. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.

Sift

Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Central interval

Simulations

Use Sift (>=) in EV

Purchase EV

Boxes Purchased

Price per box ($)

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls

Loading backend model buckets...

Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Sealed Price / EV

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Marketplace sealed box price compared to the current break-even price/box (mid).
Source	Box price	Break-even price/box (mid)	P/E	Basis
Mana Pool	-	-	-	Unavailable
TCGplayer	-	-	-	Unavailable
eBay	-	-	-	Unavailable
Amazon	-	-	-	Unavailable

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: -

Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Pack & Box EV

Expected value summary across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
Metric	Low	Mid	High
Average pack EV (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Box EV x 36 (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Gross EV per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Profit after fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)	$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value and profit summary across all selected boxes.
All boxes	Low	Mid	High
Gross EV	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Profit after expenses	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
ROI vs cost	-	-	-

Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

Core Set 2021 Draft Booster Content Snapshot

The calculator retains this product's existing slot model and resolves complete contents before included-pool controls or optional Sift score the result.

Packs: 36 packs / box
Cards: 15 game cards / pack
Modeled total: 540 modeled card slots / box
Rows: Loading

Pack Structure

Thirty-six fifteen-card packs resolve 540 game cards before Sift and filters. Each pack has ten common positions, three uncommons, one rare/mythic and one land. A foil replaces one common in one-third of packs.

The land slot includes a showcase basic in one-seventh of packs. Foil showcase/borderless cards occupy one-thirty-fifth of packs within the foil event. The model includes four regular Teferi artworks, with equal division of one card identity's weight.

Nonfoil nonland Booster Fun replacement remains unresolved and omitted. This is a conditional scenario, not full-product EV. Tokens and advertising inserts are outside game-card EV.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives Core Set 2021 Booster Box

Product profile. This draft booster box resolves 540 card positions across 600 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated October 12, 2026 contains 207 Common, 165 Uncommon, 115 Rare, 60 Basic Land, 53 Mythic Rare. Its largest slot groups are 101 old common, 101 old common foil, 80 old uncommon, 80 old uncommon foil, 53 old rare. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.

Largest modeled weights. Alchemist's Gift #87 (3.45 expected per draft booster box), Alpine Watchdog #2 (3.45 expected per draft booster box), Anointed Chorister #4 (3.45 expected per draft booster box), Basri's Acolyte #8 (3.45 expected per draft booster box), Blood Glutton #90 (3.45 expected per draft booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. Alpine Houndmaster #215, Angelic Ascension #3, Animal Sanctuary #242, Azusa, Lost but Seeking #173, Baneslayer Angel #6, Basri Ket (Borderless) #280, Basri Ket #7, Bloodfell Caves #243, Ugin, the Spirit Dragon #1. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 600 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Chromatic Orrery #228 ($10.78), Heroic Intervention #188 ($9.46), Terror of the Peaks #164 ($8.38), Grim Tutor #103 ($7.62), Vito, Thorn of the Dusk Rose #127 ($7.09). Together those five rows account for 20.9% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

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Modeled card expected value rows for this product.
Name	Set	Card #	Rarity	Treatment	Value ($)	Seller fees (pct + txn)	Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift							0.00
Sanity total expected copies / box - all modeled rows							0.00
Gap to 540 modeled card slots / box							0.00

Expected copies / box0.00

Sanity check totals (ignore Sift and bucket toggles)

Model source: data-static/magic/m21/models/draft-box.json. The model documents sealed contents as drawn first, then Sift and bucket filters are applied afterward.