Core Set 2020 Draft Booster Box EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of Core Set 2020 Booster Box using daily generated TCGplayer price snapshots and the backend draft-box model.

Model assumptions & evidence

This historical model draws all game-card slots first, then applies included-bucket toggles and optional Sift filtering as post-draw scoring filters.

Estimated full-product EV: 36 packs of 15 cards, drawn before Sift. Each pack has three uncommons, one rare/mythic and one land; one third of packs contain a foil replacing a common. The baseline uses only the regular Corpse Knight printing. US land-slot weights are 13/24 basic and 11/24 nonbasic, as documented by The Collation Project. Individual printing weights and foil allocation remain disclosed estimates.
36 packs / box15 game cards / pack540 modeled card slots / boxBackend Draft Booster model
SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.
Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Prices load from daily generated TCGplayer, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket snapshots. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.
Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Purchase EV

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls
Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: -
Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Pack & Box EV

Expected value summary across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
MetricLowMidHigh
Average pack EV (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Box EV x 36 (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Gross EV per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value and profit summary across all selected boxes.
All boxesLowMidHigh
Gross EV$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after expenses$0.00$0.00$0.00
ROI vs cost---
Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

Core Set 2020 Draft Booster Content Snapshot

This conditional model draws complete packs before Sift or filters. Regional printing and land-allocation uncertainties prevent a verified full-product EV.

Packs
36 packs / box
Cards
15 game cards / pack
Modeled total
540 modeled card slots / box
Rows
Loading

Pack Structure

Each Core Set 2020 Draft Booster is modeled with 15 game-card slots.

Commons9 or 10 nonfoil cards / pack
101 nonland commons; a foil replaces one common in one third of packs.
Uncommons3 nonfoil cards / pack
80 unique cards, including only regular Corpse Knight at 3/80 expected copies per pack. The regional misprint is excluded from this baseline.
Rare / Mythic1 nonfoil card / pack
53 rares and 15 mythics; original 7:1 aggregate assumption retained.
Land1 nonfoil card / pack
13/24 basic and 11/24 nonbasic by US collation research; assume equal weights within the 20 basic and 11 nonbasic printings.
Premium foil1 foil in one third of packs
All 280 normal foil printings; original conditional rarity allocation retained. This replaces a common, never a rare, uncommon or land.

Draw all game-card slots first, then apply any Sift or filtering logic afterward.

Non-game inserts are not counted toward EV unless the model explicitly lists them.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives Core Set 2020 Booster Box

Product profile. This draft booster box resolves 540 card positions across 560 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated October 15, 2026 contains 224 Common, 160 Uncommon, 106 Rare, 40 Basic Land, 30 Mythic Rare. Its largest slot groups are 112 old common foil, 101 old common, 80 old uncommon, 80 old uncommon foil, 53 old rare. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.

Largest modeled weights. Act of Treason #124 (3.45 expected per draft booster box), Aerial Assault #1 (3.45 expected per draft booster box), Agonizing Syphon #83 (3.45 expected per draft booster box), Angelic Gift #5 (3.45 expected per draft booster box), Anticipate #45 (3.45 expected per draft booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. Aether Gust #42, Agent of Treachery #43, Air Elemental #44, Ajani, Strength of the Pride #2, Anvilwrought Raptor #221, Atemsis, All-Seeing #46, Audacious Thief #84, Bloodfell Caves #242, Ancestral Blade #3. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 559 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Field of the Dead #247 ($16.11), Glint-Horn Buccaneer #141 ($6.40), Veil of Summer #198 ($5.37), Vilis, Broker of Blood #122 ($5.32), Scheming Symmetry #113 ($4.95). Together those five rows account for 19.2% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

Showing all cards
Modeled card expected value rows for this product.
NameSetCard #RarityTreatmentValue ($)Seller fees (pct + txn)Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift0.00
Expected copies / box0.00