Core Set 2019 Draft Booster Box EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of Core Set 2019 Booster Box using daily generated TCGplayer price snapshots and the backend draft-box model.

Model assumptions & evidence

This historical model draws all game-card slots first, then applies included-bucket toggles and optional Sift filtering as post-draw scoring filters.

Core Set 2019 display packaging specifies 36 fifteen-card boosters and approximate premium-card odds of 1:67 cards. The original 15/67 foil-per-pack aggregate and every foil printing weight are retained. A foil replaces a common, not a card of matching rarity; each pack keeps three nonfoil uncommons, one nonfoil rare/mythic and one land. Wizards explicitly confirms that M19 common tapped dual lands occur in the land slot. Allocation assumptions: the land slot is uniform across 20 numbered basics and ten common tapped duals (1/30 each), matching the M19 community reconstruction; the other 101 commons form the common slots. Original foil allocation is retained: conditional shares are 10/15 commons (including the duals), 3/15 uncommons, 1/15 basics, 7/120 rares and 1/120 mythics, uniform within each rarity pool. These are model assumptions, not publisher-confirmed print-sheet weights. The secondary reconstruction suggests a different conditional foil distribution, so no factory allocation is claimed. The ordinary rare/mythic slot retains the original approximate 7:1 aggregate. Packs draw independently, with replacement within each sheet and at most one foil; no color balance, sheet order or box guarantees are asserted.

36 packs / box15 game cards / pack540 modeled card slots / boxBackend Draft Booster model

SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.

Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

TCG seller type

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Price source for EV

Prices load from daily generated TCGplayer, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket snapshots. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.

Sift

Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Central interval

Simulations

Use Sift (>=) in EV

Purchase EV

Boxes Purchased

Price per box ($)

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls

Loading backend model buckets...

Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Sealed Price / EV

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Marketplace sealed box price compared to the current break-even price/box (mid).
Source	Box price	Break-even price/box (mid)	P/E	Basis
Mana Pool	-	-	-	Unavailable
TCGplayer	-	-	-	Unavailable
eBay	-	-	-	Unavailable
Amazon	-	-	-	Unavailable

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Simulated outcome interval: -

Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Pack & Box EV

Expected value summary across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
Metric	Low	Mid	High
Average pack EV (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Box EV x 36 (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Gross EV per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Profit after fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)	$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value and profit summary across all selected boxes.
All boxes	Low	Mid	High
Gross EV	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Profit after expenses	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
ROI vs cost	-	-	-

Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

Core Set 2019 Draft Booster Content Snapshot

The calculator retains this product's existing slot model and resolves complete contents before included-pool controls or optional Sift score the result.

Packs: 36 packs / box
Cards: 15 game cards / pack
Modeled total: 540 modeled card slots / box
Rows: Loading

Pack Structure

Each pack contains 15 game cards. The 36-pack display contains 540 game cards; tokens and checklist substitutes are excluded.

Commons10, or 9 plus a foil

101 eligible nonland commons; a foil replaces one common.

Uncommons3 cards / pack

80 eligible nonfoil uncommon printings.

Basic or common dual land1 card / pack

20 numbered basics plus ten tapped duals; uniform 1/30 allocation assumed.

Rare / Mythic1 card / pack

53 rares and 16 mythics; original 7:1 aggregate assumption.

Premium foil15/67 expected / pack

Approximate printed 1:67 cards; all 280 original foil outcomes retained, replacing one common.

Draw all game-card slots first, then apply any Sift or filtering logic afterward.

Non-game inserts are not counted toward EV unless the model explicitly lists them.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives Core Set 2019 Booster Box

Product profile. This draft booster box resolves 540 card positions across 560 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated August 24, 2026 contains 222 Common, 160 Uncommon, 106 Rare, 40 Basic Land, 32 Mythic Rare. Its largest slot groups are 111 old common foil, 101 old common, 80 old uncommon, 80 old uncommon foil, 53 old rare. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.

Largest modeled weights. Abnormal Endurance #85 (3.48 expected per draft booster box), Act of Treason #127 (3.48 expected per draft booster box), Angel of the Dawn #7 (3.48 expected per draft booster box), Anticipate #44 (3.48 expected per draft booster box), Aven Wind Mage #45 (3.48 expected per draft booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. Aegis of the Heavens #1, Aerial Engineer #211, Ajani, Adversary of Tyrants #3, Ajani's Last Stand #4, Alpine Moon #128, Apex of Power #129, Aviation Pioneer #46, Boggart Brute #131, Aethershield Artificer #2. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 560 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Scapeshift #201 ($13.56), Crucible of Worlds #229 ($9.82), Psychic Corrosion #68 ($7.90), Reliquary Tower #254 ($5.76), Nicol Bolas, the Ravager #218 ($5.13). Together those five rows account for 24.6% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

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Modeled card expected value rows for this product.
Name	Set	Card #	Rarity	Treatment	Value ($)	Seller fees (pct + txn)	Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift							0.00
Sanity total expected copies / box - all modeled rows							0.00
Gap to 540 modeled card slots / box							0.00

Expected copies / box0.00

Sanity check totals (ignore Sift and bucket toggles)

Model source: data-static/magic/m19/models/draft-box.json. The model documents sealed contents as drawn first, then Sift and bucket filters are applied afterward.