Magic 2015 (M15) Draft Booster Box EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of Magic 2015 (M15) Booster Box using daily generated TCGplayer price snapshots and the backend draft-box model.

Model assumptions & evidence

This historical model draws all game-card slots first, then applies included-bucket toggles and optional Sift filtering as post-draw scoring filters.

10 Normal nonfoil common slots, 3 Normal nonfoil uncommon slots, and 1 Normal nonfoil rare-or-mythic slot per pack with an assumed 7:1 rare-to-mythic split. Each slot is modeled uniformly within the current TCGCSV rarity pool; exact product print-sheet ordering and collation are not inferred. 1 Normal nonfoil basic land slot is modeled separately from the common slots. Premium foil replacement outcomes are not modeled because exact set-specific collation is not configured. The displayed EV is a conditional nonfoil-only scenario; full-product EV and sealed P/E are unavailable. The omitted net effect is unquantified, so no directional bias is claimed.
36 packs / box15 game cards / pack540 modeled card slots / boxBackend Draft Booster model
SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.
Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Prices load from daily generated TCGplayer, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket snapshots. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.
Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Purchase EV

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls
Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Simulated outcome interval: -
Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Pack & Box EV

Expected value summary across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
MetricLowMidHigh
Average pack EV (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Box EV x 36 (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Gross EV per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value and profit summary across all selected boxes.
All boxesLowMidHigh
Gross EV$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after expenses$0.00$0.00$0.00
ROI vs cost---
Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

Magic 2015 (M15) Draft Booster Content Snapshot

The calculator retains this product's existing slot model and resolves complete contents before included-pool controls or optional Sift score the result.

Packs
36 packs / box
Cards
15 game cards / pack
Modeled total
540 modeled card slots / box
Rows
Loading

Pack Structure

Each Magic 2015 (M15) Draft Booster Box contains 36 fifteen-card packs (540 game-card positions). This retained nonfoil-only scenario omits ordinary foil outcomes; full-product EV is unavailable until the set-specific premium frequency is verified.

Commons10 cards / pack
Pool: 101 modeled card outcomes.Common slots: 10 expected / pack.
Uncommons3 cards / pack
Pool: 80 modeled card outcomes.Uncommon slots: 3 expected / pack.
Land1 card / pack
Pool: 20 modeled card outcomes.Basic land slots: 1 expected / pack.
Rare / Mythic1 card / pack
Pool: 68 modeled card outcomes.Rare/mythic slot: 1 expected / pack.

Draw all game-card slots first, then apply any Sift or filtering logic afterward.

Non-game inserts are not counted toward EV unless the model explicitly lists them.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives Magic 2015 (M15) Booster Box

Product profile. This draft booster box resolves 540 card positions across 269 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated October 12, 2026 contains 101 Common, 80 Uncommon, 53 Rare, 20 Basic Land, 15 Mythic Rare. Its largest slot groups are 101 old common, 80 old uncommon, 53 old rare, 20 old basic, 15 old mythic. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.

Largest modeled weights. Accursed Spirit #85 (3.56 expected per draft booster box), Aeronaut Tinkerer #43 (3.56 expected per draft booster box), Amphin Pathmage #45 (3.56 expected per draft booster box), Black Cat #86 (3.56 expected per draft booster box), Blastfire Bolt #130 (3.56 expected per draft booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. Act on Impulse #126, Aetherspouts #44, Ajani Steadfast #1, Borderland Marauder #131, Forest #266, Ajani's Pridemate #2, Avacyn, Guardian Angel #3, Battle Mastery #4. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 269 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth #248 ($33.04), Sliver Hive #247 ($7.01), Sliver Hivelord #211 ($5.65), Polymorphist's Jest #75 ($4.55), Diffusion Sliver #50 ($4.17). Together those five rows account for 31.6% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

Showing all cards
Modeled card expected value rows for this product.
NameSetCard #RarityTreatmentValue ($)Seller fees (pct + txn)Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift0.00
Expected copies / box0.00