The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth Draft Booster Box EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth Draft Booster Box using daily generated TCGplayer price snapshots and the backend draft-box model.

Model assumptions & evidence

The calculator draws modeled box contents first from the backend slot contributions, then applies included-bucket toggles and optional Sift filtering as post-draw scoring filters.

The display contains 36 fifteen-card packs plus one traditional foil Realms and Relics topper. A foil replaces a common in 33% of packs. Full-product EV is unavailable while Draft alternate-treatment and foil allocation remain unresolved; displayed values are conditional priced subtotals. All contents are drawn before Sift or user filters.

36 packs / box 15 game cards / pack 541 modeled card slots / box Backend Draft Booster model

SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.

Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

TCG seller type

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Price source for EV

Prices load from daily generated TCGplayer, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket snapshots. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.

Sift

Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Central interval

Simulations

Use Sift (>=) in EV

Purchase EV

Boxes Purchased

Price per box ($)

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls

Loading backend model buckets...

Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Sealed Price / EV

Advertising disclosure: The Expected Value may earn commissions from qualifying purchases made through affiliate links. Programs used by the site include TCGplayer, Mana Pool, the eBay Partner Network, and Amazon Associates. As an Amazon Associate, The Expected Value earns from qualifying purchases.

Marketplace sealed box price compared to the current break-even price/box (mid).
Source	Box price	Break-even price/box (mid)	P/E	Basis
Mana Pool	-	-	-	Unavailable
TCGplayer	-	-	-	Unavailable
eBay	-	-	-	Unavailable
Amazon	-	-	-	Unavailable

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: -

Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Pack & Box EV

Expected value summary across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
Metric	Low	Mid	High
Average pack EV (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Box EV x 36 (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Gross EV per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Profit after fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)	$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value and profit summary across all selected boxes.
All boxes	Low	Mid	High
Gross EV	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Profit after expenses	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
ROI vs cost	-	-	-

Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth Draft Booster Content Snapshot

The calculator retains this product's existing slot model and resolves complete contents before included-pool controls or optional Sift score the result.

Packs: 36 packs / box
Cards: 15 game cards / pack
Modeled total: 541 modeled card slots / box
Rows: Loading

Pack Structure

Each pack contains 15 game cards. One additional traditional foil Realms and Relics topper, uniform among 30 printings, makes 541 game cards per display.

Uncommons3 cards / pack

Pool: 80 card identities across 88 printings, including nine equally weighted Nazgul arts.3 uncommons: 3 expected / pack.

Land1 card / pack

Pool: 20 standard and full-art map basic printings.One basic land; uniform printing allocation is a conditional assumption.

Rare / Mythic1 card / pack

Pool: 80 modeled card outcomes.Rare or mythic rare: 1 expected / pack.

Commons and foil replacement9 or 10 commons / pack

Pool: 101 modeled card outcomes.9.67 commons expected per pack; a traditional foil replaces one common in 33% of packs. Foil value is unresolved.

Draw all pack and display slots first, then apply any Sift or filtering logic afterward.

Non-game inserts are not counted toward EV unless the model explicitly lists them.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-earth Draft Booster Box

Product profile. This draft booster box resolves 541 card positions across 320 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated October 12, 2026 contains 101 Common, 88 Uncommon, 60 Rare, 50 Mythic Rare, 20 Basic Land, 1 Unknown. Its largest slot groups are 101 draft common, 88 draft uncommon, 80 draft rare mythic, 30 topper, 20 draft land. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.

Largest modeled weights. Unresolved LTR traditional foil position (Unresolved printing) #unresolved (11.9 expected per draft booster box), Arwen's Gift #39 (3.45 expected per draft booster box), Bag End Porter #153 (3.45 expected per draft booster box), Banish from Edoras #1 (3.45 expected per draft booster box), Battle-Scarred Goblin #115 (3.45 expected per draft booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. Anduril, Flame of the West #236, Argonath, Pillars of the Kings - The Ozolith (Borderless) #351, Arwen Undomiel #194, Bewitching Leechcraft #41, Forest (0270), The Battle of Bywater #2, Bill the Pony #3, Boromir, Warden of the Tower #4. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated September 3, 2026, 319 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from The One Ring #246 ($23.90), Orcish Bowmasters #103 ($23.49), Mithril Coat #245 ($17.92), Delighted Halfling #158 ($13.87), Lorien Revealed #60 ($13.30). Together those five rows account for 22.8% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

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Modeled card expected value rows for this product.
Name	Set	Card #	Rarity	Treatment	Value ($)	Seller fees (pct + txn)	Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift							0.00
Sanity total expected copies / box - all modeled rows							0.00
Gap to 541 modeled card slots / box							0.00

Expected copies / box0.00

Sanity check totals (ignore Sift and bucket toggles)

Model source: data-static/magic/ltr/models/draft-box.json. The model documents sealed contents as drawn first, then Sift and bucket filters are applied afterward.