Lorwyn Draft Booster Box EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of Lorwyn Booster Box using daily generated TCGplayer price snapshots and the backend draft-box model.

Model assumptions & evidence

This historical model draws all game-card slots first, then applies included-bucket toggles and optional Sift filtering as post-draw scoring filters.

Conditional historical scenario: 36 complete 15-card packs (540 game cards). Each pack has three uncommons and one rare, plus eleven commons in 31/40 packs or ten commons and one foil in 9/40 packs. The retained foil frequency conflicts with a reported original 1:56 premium-card ratio; a readable Lorwyn-specific wrapper or box underside is needed to resolve it. All original expected printing quantities are preserved. Draw the complete product before Sift or user filters; rejected cards are not rerolled or backfilled.
36 packs / box15 game cards / pack540 modeled card slots / boxBackend Draft Booster model
SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.
Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Prices load from daily generated TCGplayer, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket snapshots. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.
Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Purchase EV

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls
Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: -
Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Pack & Box EV

Expected value summary across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
MetricLowMidHigh
Average pack EV (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Box EV x 36 (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Gross EV per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value and profit summary across all selected boxes.
All boxesLowMidHigh
Gross EV$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after expenses$0.00$0.00$0.00
ROI vs cost---
Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

Lorwyn Draft Booster Content Snapshot

The calculator retains this product's existing slot model and resolves complete contents before included-pool controls or optional Sift score the result.

Packs
36 packs / box
Cards
15 game cards / pack
Modeled total
540 modeled card slots / box
Rows
Loading

Pack Structure

Each Lorwyn Draft Booster has 15 game-card slots. This retained scenario always draws 3 uncommons and 1 rare, then 11 commons or 10 commons plus 1 foil; the 9/40 foil-pack probability remains under historical review.

Foil sheet slots0.225 expected / pack
Pool: 301 modeled card outcomes.One foil replacing one common in 9/40 packs in the retained scenario; historical aggregate frequency unresolved.
Rare sheet slots1 card / pack
Pool: 80 modeled card outcomes.Rare sheet slots: 1 expected / pack.
Common sheet slots10.775 expected / pack
Pool: 121 modeled card outcomes.Common sheet slots: 10.775 expected / pack.
Uncommon sheet slots3 cards / pack
Pool: 80 modeled card outcomes.Uncommon sheet slots: 3 expected / pack.

Draw all game-card slots first, then apply any Sift or filtering logic afterward.

Non-game inserts are not counted toward EV unless the model explicitly lists them.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives Lorwyn Booster Box

Product profile. This draft booster box resolves 540 card positions across 582 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated October 12, 2026 contains 242 Common, 160 Rare, 160 Uncommon, 20 Basic Land. Its largest slot groups are 301 old foil, 121 old common, 80 old rare, 80 old uncommon. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.

Largest modeled weights. Adder-Staff Boggart #148 (3.21 expected per draft booster box), Aethersnipe #50 (3.21 expected per draft booster box), Amoeboid Changeling #51 (3.21 expected per draft booster box), Aquitect's Will #52 (3.21 expected per draft booster box), Avian Changeling #4 (3.21 expected per draft booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. Ajani Goldmane #1, Ancient Amphitheater #266, Axegrinder Giant #151, Battle Mastery #5, Arbiter of Knollridge #2, Austere Command #3, Brigid, Hero of Kinsbaile #6, Burrenton Forge-Tender #7. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 582 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Merrow Commerce #72 ($23.67), Dolmen Gate #256 ($14.13), Spellstutter Sprite #89 ($14.07), Wort, Boggart Auntie #252 ($12.89), Ponder #79 ($12.12). Together those five rows account for 15.6% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

Showing all cards
Modeled card expected value rows for this product.
NameSetCard #RarityTreatmentValue ($)Seller fees (pct + txn)Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift0.00
Expected copies / box0.00