Beta Edition Draft Booster Box EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of Beta Edition Booster Box using daily generated TCGplayer price snapshots and the backend draft-box model.

Model assumptions & evidence

This historical model draws all game-card slots first, then applies included-bucket toggles and optional Sift filtering as post-draw scoring filters.

Full-product EV is unavailable. This retained 11-common / 3-uncommon / 1-rare scenario does not reproduce historical Beta land frequencies across all three sheets. Exact Market quotes are also missing, including the unsupported Crusade identity. Priced results are conditional subtotals only. Draw all 540 scenario cards before Sift and filters.
36 packs / box15 game cards / pack540 modeled card slots / boxBackend Draft Booster model
SnapshotCardmarket EUR + €0.25 SiftBased on complete Cardmarket EUR pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.
Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Prices load from daily generated TCGplayer, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket snapshots. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.
Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Purchase EV

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls
Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: -
Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Pack & Box EV

Expected value summary across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
MetricLowMidHigh
Average pack EV (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Box EV x 36 (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Gross EV per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value and profit summary across all selected boxes.
All boxesLowMidHigh
Gross EV$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after expenses$0.00$0.00$0.00
ROI vs cost---
Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

Beta Edition Draft Booster Content Snapshot

The retained scenario preserves original weights while historical sheet allocation and missing exact quotes remain unresolved. Its complete 540-card draw precedes Sift or filters.

Packs
36 packs / box
Cards
15 game cards / pack
Modeled total
540 modeled card slots / box
Rows
Loading

Pack Structure

Each modeled Beta Edition display contains 36 packs of 15 game cards, 540 total. The following retained scenario is not a verified reconstruction of Beta sheets.

Commons11 cards / pack
Pool: 75 commons plus 15 basic-land artworks, uniformly weighted in this retained scenario.Common slots: 11 expected / pack.
Uncommons3 cards / pack
Pool: 95 modeled card outcomes.Uncommon slots: 3 expected / pack.
Rare scenario1 card / pack
Pool: 117 modeled card outcomes.Rare slot: 1 expected / pack.

Draw all game-card slots first, then apply any Sift or filtering logic afterward.

Non-game inserts are not counted toward EV unless the model explicitly lists them.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives Beta Edition Booster Box

Product profile. This draft booster box resolves 540 card positions across 302 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated October 12, 2026 contains 117 Rare, 95 Uncommon, 75 Common, 15 Basic Land. Its largest slot groups are 117 old rare, 95 old uncommon, 90 old common. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.

Largest modeled weights. Benalish Hero (4.40 expected per draft booster box), Blue Elemental Blast (4.40 expected per draft booster box), Circle of Protection: Black (4.40 expected per draft booster box), Circle of Protection: Blue (4.40 expected per draft booster box), Circle of Protection: Green (4.40 expected per draft booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. Air Elemental, Ancestral Recall, Circle of Protection: Red, Crusade #17, Animate Artifact, Animate Dead, Animate Wall, Ankh of Mishra. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the Cardmarket EUR snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 301 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Black Lotus ($6908.95), Volcanic Island ($3254.58), Ancestral Recall ($3122.32), Underground Sea ($2144.22), Mox Emerald ($2141.15). Together those five rows account for 29.2% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

Showing all cards
Modeled card expected value rows for this product.
NameSetCard #RarityTreatmentValue ($)Seller fees (pct + txn)Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift0.00
Expected copies / box0.00