Alpha Edition Draft Booster Box EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of Alpha Edition Booster Box using daily generated TCGplayer price snapshots and the backend draft-box model.

Model assumptions & evidence

This historical model draws all game-card slots first, then applies included-bucket toggles and optional Sift filtering as post-draw scoring filters.

Full-product EV is unavailable: exact Alpha Market quotes are missing, including Crusade, and basic-land allocation across historical print sheets remains unresolved. Values and ranges are conditional priced subtotals. The retained scenario draws all 540 positions before Sift and filters; it does not reconstruct factory Alpha collation.
36 packs / box15 game cards / pack540 modeled card slots / boxBackend Draft Booster model
SnapshotCardmarket EUR + €0.25 SiftBased on available Cardmarket EUR pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.
Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Prices load from daily generated TCGplayer, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket snapshots. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.
Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Purchase EV

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls
Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: -
Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Pack & Box EV

Expected value summary across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
MetricLowMidHigh
Average pack EV (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Box EV x 36 (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Gross EV per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value and profit summary across all selected boxes.
All boxesLowMidHigh
Gross EV$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after expenses$0.00$0.00$0.00
ROI vs cost---
Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

Alpha Edition Draft Booster Content Snapshot

The calculator retains this product's existing slot model and resolves complete contents before included-pool controls or optional Sift score the result.

Packs
36 packs / box
Cards
15 game cards / pack
Modeled total
540 modeled card slots / box
Rows
Loading

Pack Structure

Each Alpha Edition Draft Booster is modeled with 15 game-card slots.

Commons11 cards / pack
Pool: 84 modeled card outcomes.Common slots: 11 expected / pack.
Uncommons3 cards / pack
Pool: 95 modeled card outcomes.Uncommon slots: 3 expected / pack.
Rare / Mythic1 card / pack
Pool: 116 modeled card outcomes.Rare slot: 1 expected / pack.

Draw all game-card slots first, then apply any Sift or filtering logic afterward.

Non-game inserts are not counted toward EV unless the model explicitly lists them.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives Alpha Edition Booster Box

Product profile. This draft booster box resolves 540 card positions across 295 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated September 7, 2026 contains 116 Rare, 95 Uncommon, 74 Common, 10 Basic Land. Its largest slot groups are 116 old rare, 95 old uncommon, 84 old common. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.

Largest modeled weights. Benalish Hero (4.71 expected per draft booster box), Blue Elemental Blast (4.71 expected per draft booster box), Circle of Protection: Blue (4.71 expected per draft booster box), Circle of Protection: Green (4.71 expected per draft booster box), Circle of Protection: Red (4.71 expected per draft booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. Air Elemental, Ancestral Recall, Circle of Protection: White, Crusade #16, Animate Artifact, Animate Dead, Animate Wall, Ankh of Mishra. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the Cardmarket EUR snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 294 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Black Lotus ($12016.51), Mox Sapphire ($6234.79), Mox Jet ($5998.30), Timetwister ($5935.69), Ancestral Recall ($5362.19). Together those five rows account for 27.5% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

Showing all cards
Modeled card expected value rows for this product.
NameSetCard #RarityTreatmentValue ($)Seller fees (pct + txn)Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift0.00
Expected copies / box0.00