Khans of Tarkir Draft Booster Box EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of Khans of Tarkir Booster Box using daily generated TCGplayer price snapshots and the backend draft-box model.

Model assumptions & evidence

This historical model draws all game-card slots first, then applies included-bucket toggles and optional Sift filtering as post-draw scoring filters.

10 Normal nonfoil common slots, 3 Normal nonfoil uncommon slots, and 1 Normal nonfoil rare-or-mythic slot per pack with a documented 7:1 rare-to-mythic split. Each slot is modeled uniformly within the current TCGCSV rarity pool; exact product print-sheet ordering and collation are not inferred. 1 Normal nonfoil basic land slot is modeled separately from the common slots. Premium foil replacement outcomes are not modeled because exact set-specific collation is not configured. Headline EV and sealed P/E are nonfoil-only scenario results; the omitted net effect is unquantified, so no directional bias is claimed.
36 packs / box15 game cards / pack540 modeled card slots / boxBackend Draft Booster model
SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.
Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Prices load from daily generated TCGplayer, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket snapshots. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.
Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Purchase EV

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls
Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Simulated outcome interval: -
Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Pack & Box EV

Expected value summary across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
MetricLowMidHigh
Average pack EV (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Box EV x 36 (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Gross EV per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value and profit summary across all selected boxes.
All boxesLowMidHigh
Gross EV$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after expenses$0.00$0.00$0.00
ROI vs cost---
Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

Khans of Tarkir Draft Booster Content Snapshot

Each box contains 36 complete fifteen-card boosters. Ordinary foil replacements are included at the approximate aggregate printed on original English packaging; the allocation assumptions are disclosed below.

Packs
36 packs / box
Cards
15 game cards / pack
Modeled total
540 modeled card slots / box
Rows
Loading

Pack Structure

Each Khans of Tarkir Draft Booster Box contains 36 packs of 15 game cards, for 540 game cards. Premium cards replace a common rather than adding an extra card.

Commons9 or 10 cards / pack
Pool: 101 modeled card outcomes.Ten commons normally; nine when a foil replaces one common.
Uncommons3 cards / pack
Pool: 80 modeled card outcomes.Uncommon slots: 3 expected / pack.
Land1 card / pack
Pool: 20 modeled card outcomes.Basic land slots: 1 expected / pack.
Rare / Mythic1 card / pack
Pool: 68 modeled card outcomes.Rare/mythic slot: 1 expected / pack.
Premium foil replacement0 or 1 card / pack
Printed approximate odds: 1:67 cards, modeled as 15/67 packs with one foil replacing one common.Pool: all 269 numbered KTK printings, including basic lands. Conditional rarity and printing weights are assumptions described in the model disclosures.

Draw all game-card slots first, then apply any Sift or filtering logic afterward.

Non-game inserts are not counted toward EV unless the model explicitly lists them.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives Khans of Tarkir Booster Box

Product profile. This draft booster box resolves 540 card positions across 538 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated October 12, 2026 contains 202 Common, 160 Uncommon, 106 Rare, 40 Basic Land, 30 Mythic Rare. Its largest slot groups are 101 old common, 101 old common foil, 80 old uncommon, 80 old uncommon foil, 53 old rare. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.

Largest modeled weights. Abomination of Gudul #159 (3.48 expected per draft booster box), Abzan Banner #215 (3.48 expected per draft booster box), Abzan Guide #162 (3.48 expected per draft booster box), Act of Treason #95 (3.48 expected per draft booster box), Ainok Bond-Kin #3 (3.48 expected per draft booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. Abzan Ascendancy #160, Abzan Battle Priest #1, Abzan Charm #161, Ainok Tracker #96, Alabaster Kirin #4, Altar of the Brood #216, Anafenza, the Foremost #163, Ashcloud Phoenix #99, Abzan Falconer #2. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 538 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Polluted Delta #239 ($11.46), Wooded Foothills #249 ($10.09), Bloodstained Mire #230 ($9.82), Flooded Strand #233 ($8.55), Windswept Heath #248 ($7.06). Together those five rows account for 31.4% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

Showing all cards
Modeled card expected value rows for this product.
NameSetCard #RarityTreatmentValue ($)Seller fees (pct + txn)Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift0.00
Expected copies / box0.00