Innistrad Draft Booster Box EV Calculator

Explore a conditional nonpremium value for an Innistrad Booster Box using daily generated TCGplayer price snapshots and the backend draft-box model.

Model assumptions & evidence

This historical model draws all game-card slots first, then applies included-bucket toggles and optional Sift filtering as post-draw scoring filters.

The conditional display draws 36 complete fifteen-position packs: nine single-faced commons, three single-faced uncommons, one single-faced rare/mythic, one double-faced card, and one basic-land/checklist position. The publisher states that roughly three packs in four contain a checklist instead of the basic land; this is represented by 3/4 checklist and 1/4 basic land. Checklist substitutes are non-game accessories excluded from game-card value. The full 540 physical positions therefore average 513 game cards and 27 checklists. Full-product EV is unavailable because premium outcomes and their joint slot allocation are not modeled. The original publisher explicitly allows a premium double-faced card and a premium single-faced card together; a single generic foil replacement branch would not establish that collation. Displayed values are a conditional nonpremium scenario, not full-box EV. Full-product P/E, profit and ROI are unavailable. Retained allocation assumptions: ordinary rare/mythic 7:1; DFC common/uncommon versus rare/mythic 7/8:1/8, then common/uncommon 10:3 and rare/mythic 7:1; uniform printings within each rarity and among the fifteen basic lands; independent packs and positions. These are not publisher-issued exact print-sheet weights. The checklist frequency is a numerical representation of the publisher approximate rate. Draw the complete physical product before Sift or pool filters; rejected cards are never rerolled or backfilled. Non-game checklist accessories have no game-card EV, while omitted premium cards have unknown effect rather than zero value.
36 packs / box15 card slots / pack540 physical positions / boxBackend Draft Booster model
SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.

The conditional display draws 36 complete fifteen-position packs: nine single-faced commons, three single-faced uncommons, one single-faced rare/mythic, one double-faced card, and one basic-land/checklist position.

Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Prices load from daily generated TCGplayer, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket snapshots. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.
Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Purchase EV

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls
Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Simulated outcome interval: -
Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Pack & Box EV

Expected value summary across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
MetricLowMidHigh
Average pack EV (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Box EV x 36 (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Gross EV per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value and profit summary across all selected boxes.
All boxesLowMidHigh
Gross EV$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after expenses$0.00$0.00$0.00
ROI vs cost---
Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

Innistrad Draft Booster Content Snapshot

The calculator retains this product's existing slot model and resolves complete contents before included-pool controls or optional Sift score the result.

Packs
36 packs / box
Modeled total
15 card slots / pack
Modeled total
540 physical positions / box
Rows
Loading

Pack Structure

Each display contains 36 fifteen-position packs (540 physical positions). In this conditional nonpremium model, each pack draws nine commons, three uncommons, one rare/mythic, one DFC and one land/checklist position. A checklist replaces the basic land at the publisher approximate 75% rate. This gives 513 expected game cards and 27 non-game checklists per display; premium branches remain unmodeled.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives Innistrad Booster Box

Product profile. This draft booster box resolves 540 card positions across 265 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated August 25, 2026 contains 107 Common, 67 Uncommon, 59 Rare, 16 Mythic Rare, 15 Basic Land, 1 Unclassified. Its largest slot groups are 101 old common, 60 old uncommon, 53 old rare, 15 old basic, 15 old mythic. 1 modeled row is explicitly disclosed as EV-excluded and omitted from the value contribution.

Largest modeled weights. Delver of Secrets #51 (4.04 expected per draft booster box), Grizzled Outcasts #185 (4.04 expected per draft booster box), Thraben Sentry #38 (4.04 expected per draft booster box), Tormented Pariah #165 (4.04 expected per draft booster box), Village Ironsmith #168 (4.04 expected per draft booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. Abattoir Ghoul #85, Abbey Griffin #1, Angel of Flight Alabaster #2, Angelic Overseer #3, Bloodline Keeper #90, Civilized Scholar #47, Forest #262, Garruk Relentless #181, Avacynian Priest #4. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 264 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Parallel Lives #199 ($21.57), Moonmist #195 ($9.40), Snapcaster Mage #78 ($8.86), Bloodline Keeper #90 ($4.90), Balefire Dragon #129 ($4.55). Together those five rows account for 31.2% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

Showing all cards
Modeled card expected value rows for this product.
NameSetCard #RarityTreatmentValue ($)Seller fees (pct + txn)Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift0.00
Expected copies / box0.00