Ikoria: Lair of Behemoths Draft Booster Box EV Calculator

Review a conditional regular-frame-plus-topper value of Ikoria: Lair of Behemoths Booster Box using daily generated TCGplayer price snapshots and the backend draft-box model.

Model assumptions & evidence

This historical model draws all game-card slots first, then applies included-bucket toggles and optional Sift filtering as post-draw scoring filters.

English-language conditional scenario: 36 fifteen-card Draft Boosters (540 cards) plus one separate foil Godzilla Series Monster topper, for 541 game cards per display. The topper is drawn once from the fifteen worldwide printings; the Buy-a-Box card and three Japanese-exclusive toppers are excluded from this English product. All original expected printing quantities are retained. Full-product EV is unavailable. Wizards explicitly permits showcase mutate cards, borderless planeswalkers and alternate-frame Triomes in Draft Boosters in both foil and nonfoil. This retained model omits those 38 alternate printings (76 finish outcomes); their replacement allocation has not been established. Displayed values are conditional regular-frame-plus-topper estimates, not full-product EV. Omitted eligible variants are not worth zero and are not treated as chase exclusions. The published post-Core Set 2020 foil aggregate is 1:45 cards, represented here by one foil in one-third of packs. The original conditional scenario replaces a card in the same rarity position: common, uncommon, rare/mythic or land, weighted 10:3:1:1. That replacement relationship is retained as an unverified assumption. Other assumptions are a 7:1 rare-to-mythic split, uniform printings within each rarity, a uniform 25-printing land position (15 basics and 10 common dual lands), uniform selection among the 15 foil toppers, and independent pack draws. These are not verified factory sheet order or alternate-frame replacement rates. Construct and draw all 541 positions of the conditional product, including exactly one display topper, before Sift or pool filters. Never reroll or backfill rejected cards; Low, Mid and High come from the same recalculated samples.
36 packs / box15 game cards / pack541 modeled card slots / boxBackend Draft Booster model
SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.

English-language conditional scenario: 36 fifteen-card Draft Boosters (540 cards) plus one separate foil Godzilla Series Monster topper, for 541 game cards per display.

Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Prices load from daily generated TCGplayer, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket snapshots. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.
Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Purchase EV

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls
Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: -
Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Pack & Box Conditional Values

Expected value summary across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
MetricLowMidHigh
Per-pack share incl. topper (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Box conditional value incl. topper (gross)$0.00$0.00$0.00
Gross conditional value per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after fees per box$0.00$0.00$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value and profit summary across all selected boxes.
All boxesLowMidHigh
Gross conditional value$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Net after fees$0.00$0.00$0.00
Profit after expenses$0.00$0.00$0.00
ROI vs cost---
Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

Ikoria: Lair of Behemoths Draft Booster Content Snapshot

The calculator retains this product's existing slot model and resolves complete contents before included-pool controls or optional Sift score the result.

Packs
36 packs / box
Cards
15 game cards / pack
Modeled total
541 modeled card slots / box
Rows
Loading

Pack Structure

The English display contains 36 fifteen-card boosters plus one foil Godzilla Series Monster topper (541 game cards).

Packs36 packs / box
Each pack has 15 positions: ten common, three uncommon, one rare/mythic and one land before the retained foil substitution.
Foil replacement scenario1 in 3 packs
A foil replaces one card in its own rarity position, selected with common:uncommon:rare/mythic:land weights 10:3:1:1. This retains original expectations; the replacement relationship is an unverified assumption.
Display topper1 foil card / box
One of fifteen worldwide Godzilla Series Monster printings, drawn separately from the 36 packs. Uniform selection is an assumption. Japanese-exclusive toppers and the Buy-a-Box card are outside this English display.
Conditional product total541 game cards / box
All 540 pack cards and the one topper are drawn before Sift or pool filters. Eligible showcase and borderless variants remain unresolved; full-product EV is unavailable.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives Ikoria: Lair of Behemoths Booster Box

Product profile. This draft booster box resolves 541 card positions across 563 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated July 8, 2026 contains 202 Common, 165 Uncommon, 110 Rare, 50 Basic Land, 36 Mythic Rare. Its largest slot groups are 101 old common, 101 old common foil, 80 old uncommon, 80 old uncommon foil, 53 old rare. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.

Largest modeled weights. Adaptive Shimmerer #1 (3.49 expected per draft booster box), Adventurous Impulse #142 (3.49 expected per draft booster box), Aegis Turtle #39 (3.49 expected per draft booster box), Almighty Brushwagg #143 (3.49 expected per draft booster box), Anticipate #40 (3.49 expected per draft booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. Alert Heedbonder #218, Anguirus, Armored Killer - Gemrazer (Godzilla Series Monster) #376, Archipelagore #41, Blade Banish #4, Blazing Volley #107, Bloodfell Caves #243, Blossoming Sands #244, Bonders' Enclave #245, Farfinder #2. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 563 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from The Ozolith #237 ($38.11), Zagoth Triome #259 ($13.31), Savai Triome #253 ($12.02), Indatha Triome #248 ($9.91), Ketria Triome #250 ($9.83). Together those five rows account for 31.3% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

Showing all cards
Modeled card expected value rows for this product.
NameSetCard #RarityTreatmentValue ($)Seller fees (pct + txn)Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift0.00
Expected copies / box0.00