Gatecrash Draft Booster Box Conditional Value Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of Gatecrash Booster Box using daily generated TCGplayer price snapshots and the backend draft-box model.

Model assumptions & evidence

This historical model draws all game-card slots first, then applies included-bucket toggles and optional Sift filtering as post-draw scoring filters.

This conditional scenario draws 36 fifteen-card boosters (540 modeled positions): ten nonfoil commons from 96 identities, three nonfoil uncommons, one nonfoil rare/mythic, and one nonfoil Guildgate from five identities per pack. All original expected printing quantities are retained while the product evidence is reconciled. Full-product EV is unavailable. The retained model omits premium foil replacement outcomes, and its guaranteed Guildgate position conflicts with contemporary publisher descriptions of the basic-land position. Wizards' 2020 A Trivial Pursuit says Gatecrash boosters had a Guildgate instead of a basic land; the contemporary Dragon's Maze Mechanics article says Guildgates moved to the usual basic-land position in Dragon's Maze. Product-specific clarification of Gatecrash land collation and complete foil eligibility, replacement and allocation is still required. Displayed values are conditional nonfoil scenario estimates, not verified full-product EV; omitted contents are not worth zero. The retained 7:1 nonfoil rare-to-mythic split, uniform identities within each rarity and the five-Guildgate position, and independent draws are modeling assumptions. They do not establish factory print-sheet order, duplicate prevention, or guaranteed box rarity counts. No foil rate from another set is substituted. Construct and draw the complete 540-position conditional product before Sift or user filters; never reroll or backfill rejected cards. Low, Mid and High come from the same recalculated samples.

36 packs / box15 game cards / pack540 modeled card slots / boxBackend Draft Booster model

SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.

Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

TCG seller type

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Price source for EV

Prices load from daily generated TCGplayer, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket snapshots. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.

Sift

Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Central interval

Simulations

Use Sift (>=) in EV

Purchase EV

Boxes Purchased

Price per box ($)

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls

Loading backend model buckets...

Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Sealed Price / EV

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Marketplace sealed box price compared to the current break-even price/box (mid).
Source	Box price	Break-even price/box (mid)	P/E	Basis
Mana Pool	-	-	-	Unavailable
TCGplayer	-	-	-	Unavailable
eBay	-	-	-	Unavailable
Amazon	-	-	-	Unavailable

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Simulated outcome interval: -

Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Pack & Box Conditional Value

Conditional nonfoil values across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
Metric	Low	Mid	High
Average conditional pack value (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Conditional box value (36 packs, gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Gross conditional value per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Profit after fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)	$0.00

Conditional Purchase Value

Purchase expected value and profit summary across all selected boxes.
All boxes	Low	Mid	High
Gross conditional value	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Profit after expenses	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
ROI vs cost	-	-	-

Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

Gatecrash Draft Booster Content Snapshot

The calculator retains this product's existing slot model and resolves complete contents before included-pool controls or optional Sift score the result.

Packs: 36 packs / box
Cards: 15 game cards / pack
Modeled total: 540 modeled card slots / box
Rows: Loading

Pack Structure

Each Gatecrash Draft Booster Box contains 36 fifteen-card boosters (540 game cards). The retained conditional model below is not a verified complete product model: foil outcomes are omitted and land collation remains unresolved.

Commons10 cards / pack

Pool: 96 modeled card outcomes.Common slots: 10 expected / pack.

Uncommons3 cards / pack

Pool: 80 modeled card outcomes.Uncommon slots: 3 expected / pack.

Rare / Mythic1 card / pack

Pool: 68 modeled card outcomes.Rare/mythic slot: 1 expected / pack.

Guildgate slot1 card / pack

Pool: 5 modeled card outcomes.Guildgate slot: 1 expected / pack.

Draw all game-card slots first, then apply any Sift or filtering logic afterward.

Non-game inserts are not counted toward EV unless the model explicitly lists them.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives Gatecrash Booster Box

Product profile. This draft booster box resolves 540 card positions across 249 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated August 25, 2026 contains 101 Common, 80 Uncommon, 53 Rare, 15 Mythic Rare. Its largest slot groups are 96 old common, 80 old uncommon, 53 old rare, 15 old mythic, 5 old gtc guildgate. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.

Largest modeled weights. Boros Guildgate #239 (7.20 expected per draft booster box), Dimir Guildgate #241 (7.20 expected per draft booster box), Gruul Guildgate #243 (7.20 expected per draft booster box), Orzhov Guildgate #244 (7.20 expected per draft booster box), Simic Guildgate #246 (7.20 expected per draft booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. Act of Treason #85, Aetherize #29, Alms Beast #141, Aurelia, the Warleader #143, Aerial Maneuver #1, Angelic Edict #2, Angelic Skirmisher #3, Assault Griffin #4. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 249 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Crypt Ghast #61 ($8.34), Boros Charm #148 ($8.11), Sacred Foundry #245 ($5.71), Watery Grave #249 ($5.52), Breeding Pool #240 ($5.49). Together those five rows account for 21.8% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

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Modeled card expected value rows for this product.
Name	Set	Card #	Rarity	Treatment	Value ($)	Seller fees (pct + txn)	Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift							0.00
Sanity total expected copies / box - all modeled rows							0.00
Gap to 540 modeled card slots / box							0.00

Expected copies / box0.00

Sanity check totals (ignore Sift and bucket toggles)

Model source: data-static/magic/gtc/models/draft-box.json. The historical model uses configured rarity-pool slots, retains the unresolved conditional nonfoil slot scenario, and does not infer exact print-sheet collation.