Guildpact Draft Booster Box EV Calculator

Estimate the expected value (EV) of Guildpact Booster Box using daily generated TCGplayer price snapshots and the backend draft-box model.

Model assumptions & evidence

This historical model draws all game-card slots first, then applies included-bucket toggles and optional Sift filtering as post-draw scoring filters.

The committed MTGJSON reconstruction is retained as an explicit collation scenario: uniform selection within each rarity, with independent same-rarity foil replacement events of 11/70 for the common block, 3/70 for the uncommon block and 1/70 for the rare position. This implies 1/70 premium cards overall, not a 1/70 chance of a foil pack. At most one foil of each rarity is drawn in this scenario. A readable Guildpact-specific printed aggregate rate has not been recovered; the rate and event correlations are retained assumptions, not publisher-confirmed factory collation. Wizards subsequently described same-rarity replacement as the system used before Time Spiral.

36 packs / box15 game cards / pack540 modeled card slots / boxBackend Draft Booster model

SnapshotTCG Market + $0.25 SiftBased on TCG Market pricing with Sift applied only after complete modeled contents are drawn.

Calculation settingsSift off

Selling Fees

TCG seller type

Row fees show pct + txn. Order fees are added only in the summary.

Value Threshold

Price source for EV

Prices load from daily generated TCGplayer, Mana Pool, and Cardmarket snapshots. EV applies Sift after modeled contents are drawn.

Sift

Rows with Value >= Sift tint green. EV uses Sift only when the toggle is checked.

EV Range (Monte Carlo)

Central interval

Simulations

Use Sift (>=) in EV

Purchase EV

Boxes Purchased

Price per box ($)

Included model bucketsChoose which modeled pools count toward EV.Model controls

Loading backend model buckets...

Rows are grouped by backend model bucket. Sift is applied only after model contents are drawn.

Sealed Price / EV

Advertising disclosure: The Expected Value may earn commissions from qualifying purchases made through affiliate links. Programs used by the site include TCGplayer, Mana Pool, the eBay Partner Network, and Amazon Associates. As an Amazon Associate, The Expected Value earns from qualifying purchases.

Marketplace sealed box price compared to the current break-even price/box (mid).
Source	Box price	Break-even price/box (mid)	P/E	Basis
Mana Pool	-	-	-	Unavailable
TCGplayer	-	-	-	Unavailable
eBay	-	-	-	Unavailable
Amazon	-	-	-	Unavailable

Simulation Results (after Sift)

Confidence band: -

Each bar groups simulated box totals after modeled contents are drawn, then Sift and included-bucket filters are applied.

Pack & Box EV

Expected value summary across low, mid, and high Monte Carlo estimates.
Metric	Low	Mid	High
Average pack EV (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Box EV x 36 (gross)	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Gross EV per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Profit after fees per box	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Break-even price/box (mid)	$0.00

Purchase EV & Profit

Purchase expected value and profit summary across all selected boxes.
All boxes	Low	Mid	High
Gross EV	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Net after fees	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Profit after expenses	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
ROI vs cost	-	-	-

Boxes: 0 | Price/box: $0.00 | Total cost: $0.00

Content Snapshot

Guildpact Draft Booster Content Snapshot

The calculator retains this product's existing slot model and resolves complete contents before included-pool controls or optional Sift score the result.

Packs: 36 packs / box
Cards: 15 game cards / pack
Modeled total: 540 modeled card slots / box
Rows: Loading

Pack Structure

Each pack contains 15 game cards: eleven common, three uncommon and one rare position. In the retained reconstruction, foil cards replace cards of their own rarity. Eight complete pack variants preserve every original expected quantity; the display contains 36 packs and exactly 540 cards before filtering.

Foil common sheet slots0.1571 expected / pack

Pool: 55 modeled card outcomes.Foil common sheet slots: 0.1571 expected / pack (15.71% expected per pack).

Common sheet slots10.8429 expected / pack

Pool: 55 modeled card outcomes.Common sheet slots: 10.8429 expected / pack.

Foil uncommon sheet slots0.0429 expected / pack

Pool: 55 modeled card outcomes.Foil uncommon sheet slots: 0.0429 expected / pack (4.29% expected per pack).

Uncommon sheet slots2.9571 expected / pack

Pool: 55 modeled card outcomes.Uncommon sheet slots: 2.9571 expected / pack.

Foil rare sheet slots0.0143 expected / pack

Pool: 55 modeled card outcomes.Foil rare sheet slots: 0.0143 expected / pack (1.43% expected per pack).

Rare sheet slots0.9857 expected / pack

Pool: 55 modeled card outcomes.Rare sheet slots: 0.9857 expected / pack (98.57% expected per pack).

Draw all game-card slots first, then apply any Sift or filtering logic afterward.

Non-game inserts are not counted toward EV unless the model explicitly lists them.

Release-specific model analysis

What drives Guildpact Booster Box

Product profile. This draft booster box resolves 540 card positions across 330 named outcomes. The model snapshot dated October 12, 2026 contains 110 Common, 110 Rare, 110 Uncommon. Its largest slot groups are 55 old common, 55 old foil common, 55 old foil rare, 55 old foil uncommon, 55 old rare. Every listed outcome contributes to the published baseline unless the visitor applies a post-draw filter.

Largest modeled weights. Absolver Thrull #1 (7.10 expected per draft booster box), Beastmaster's Magemark #80 (7.10 expected per draft booster box), Benediction of Moons #3 (7.10 expected per draft booster box), Blind Hunter #102 (7.10 expected per draft booster box), Bloodscale Prowler #64 (7.10 expected per draft booster box). These are frequency leaders in the product model, not a promise that any individual opening will contain them.

Release-specific card examples. Abyssal Nocturnus #43, Aetherplasm #22, Agent of Masks #100, Angel of Despair #101, Burning-Tree Bloodscale #104, Castigate #106, Belfry Spirit #2, Droning Bureaucrats #4. Seeing the named pool makes it possible to compare this release with adjacent sets instead of treating every sealed product as the same generic pack calculation.

Reference snapshot value concentration. At the TCGplayer Market snapshot dated August 12, 2026, 330 modeled outcomes have a usable direct or documented fallback price. The largest deterministic contributions come from Steam Vents #164 ($16.63), Godless Shrine #157 ($10.36), Stomping Ground #165 ($8.97), Spelltithe Enforcer #18 ($7.41), Skarrg, the Rage Pits #163 ($7.18). Together those five rows account for 25.5% of the modeled gross value. This dated reference does not update with the live calculator's prices or Sift settings.

The baseline product model is constructed first, including any documented chase exclusions. The calculator then draws the complete baseline product. Included-pool controls and optional Sift evaluate that completed draw afterward and do not alter its collation.

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Modeled card expected value rows for this product.
Name	Set	Card #	Rarity	Treatment	Value ($)	Seller fees (pct + txn)	Boxes / copy
Total expected copies / box - included buckets & Sift							0.00
Sanity total expected copies / box - all modeled rows							0.00
Gap to 540 modeled card slots / box							0.00

Expected copies / box0.00

Sanity check totals (ignore Sift and bucket toggles)

Model source: data-static/magic/gpt/models/draft-box.json. The committed MTGJSON reconstruction is retained as an explicit collation scenario: uniform selection within each rarity, with independent same-rarity foil replacement events of 11/70 for the common block, 3/70 for the uncommon block and 1/70 for the rare position. This implies 1/70 premium cards overall, not a 1/70 chance of a foil pack. At most one foil of each rarity is drawn in this scenario. A readable Guildpact-specific printed aggregate rate has not been recovered; the rate and event correlations are retained assumptions, not publisher-confirmed factory collation. Wizards subsequently described same-rarity replacement as the system used before Time Spiral.